Lukas Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Lukas Gonzalez P DSL Brewers Blue

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 140 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%19.5%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	10	4	26	118	26	17	0	40%	2.6	15.0%	18.0%	-3.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.12	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	10	4	26	118	26	17	0	40%	2.6	15.0%	18.0%	-3.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.12	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	10	4	26	118	26	17	0	40%	2.6	22.0%	14.4%	7.6%	0.0%	4.50	3.06	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	5	2	19	88	18	10	1	40%	3.9	13.9%	14.2%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.72	4.56	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	5	2	19	88	18	10	1	40%	3.9	13.9%	14.2%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.72	4.56	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	5	2	19	88	18	10	1	40%	3.9	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	1.1%	3.72	3.46	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	14	0	26	109	22	13	1	0%	1.8	13.7%	14.9%	-1.2%	1.3%	2.10	4.53	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	14	0	26	109	22	13	1	0%	1.8	13.7%	14.9%	-1.2%	1.3%	2.10	4.53	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	14	0	26	109	22	13	1	0%	1.8	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	0.9%	2.10	3.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIL	13	0	14	59	12	8	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.8%	5.7%	2.9%	5.18	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	23	0	24	103	21	13	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	11	0	12	51	10	6	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	10	6	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	100	17	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		29	6	71	315	45	50	3	21%	2.4	14.2%	15.9%	-1.6%	0.9%	3.42	4.39	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	17	200	887	126	141	8	21%	2.4	14.2%	15.9%	-1.6%	0.9%	3.42	4.39	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lukas Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	19.5%	13.8%	2.9%	—	4.87	20.5%	8.2%	24	-0.31	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	88
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	87
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	86
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	85
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	84
Joan Ogando R 2024 · 3.98 FIP	20	SU	3.98	20.3%	14.9%	1.3%	.333	5.35	20.3%	-1.4%	132	+1.37	3.98	172	83
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	83
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	83
Alix Hernandez R 2024 · 4.44 FIP	20	SU	4.44	21.7%	13.7%	2.6%	.300	5.16	23.0%	11.4%	78	+0.72	3.55	170	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	82
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	82
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	82
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	81
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	81
Anderson Cardenas R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	18	SW	4.90	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.235	3.52	22.2%	8.8%	58	-1.38	3.52	129	81
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	81
Bradley Hanner R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	20	SU	3.98	18.9%	13.9%	1.3%	.231	4.08	18.9%	3.9%	100	+0.10	2.70	354	81