Joan Ogando
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 179 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 130
ERA5.79
FIP5.79
K%19.9%
BB%19.9%
K-BB%0.0%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 9 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 11% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.74 | 5.36 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 9 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 11% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.74 | 5.33 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 2 | 40 | 187 | 54 | 23 | 2 | 10% | 2.0 | 20.3% | 14.9% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 5.80 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 2 | 40 | 187 | 54 | 23 | 2 | 10% | 2.0 | 28.9% | 12.3% | 16.6% | 1.1% | 5.80 | 2.78 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 25 | 13 | 95 | 416 | 113 | 69 | 5 | 52% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 19.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.07 | 4.73 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 25 | 13 | 95 | 416 | 113 | 69 | 5 | 52% | 3.8 | 27.2% | 16.6% | 10.6% | 1.2% | 4.07 | 3.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 13 | 0 | 17 | 107 | 25 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.0% | 26.9% | -8.9% | 4.7% | 18.90 | 7.55 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 63 | 0 | 66 | 281 | 56 | 56 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.79 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.79 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 83 | 388 | 81 | 81 | 12 | — | — | 20.9% | 20.9% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 8.42 | 6.14 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.9% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.41 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 61 | 50 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 17.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.46 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 65 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 15.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 5.18 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 30 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 17.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.46 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 45 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 15.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 5.18 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 0 | 84 | 354 | 76 | 57 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 4.78 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 136 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 4.78 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 16 | 162 | 753 | 151 | 148 | 15 | 24% | 2.4 | 20.0% | 19.7% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 5.88 | 4.96 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 20 | 200 | 928 | 186 | 182 | 18 | 24% | 2.4 | 20.0% | 19.7% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 5.88 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joan Ogando (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.79 | 19.9% | 19.9% | 2.7% | — | 5.18 | 21.4% | 5.2% | 140 | -0.61 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.30 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 4.20 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 292 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 367 | 90 |
| Blake Quinn R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 86 |
| Griffin Kilander R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.83 | 15.5% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .264 | 4.24 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.59 | 4.24 | 115 | 82 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 81 |
| Yunior Montero R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.82 | 16.9% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .276 | 4.59 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 91 | -0.23 | 3.60 | 127 | 81 |
| Edwardo Melendez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 20.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 139 | 81 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.10 | 16.5% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .243 | 4.62 | 16.6% | 3.7% | 218 | -0.48 | 3.59 | 327 | 81 |
| Keegan Collett R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.05 | 21.9% | 24.6% | 1.2% | .321 | 4.97 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 84 | -0.08 | 3.99 | 184 | 81 |
| Corey Avant R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .394 | 4.38 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 187 | -0.27 | 3.74 | 257 | 80 |
| Cole Aker R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.51 | 19.5% | 20.6% | 2.6% | .239 | 6.10 | 12.0% | -9.9% | 28 | +0.59 | 3.60 | 147 | 80 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.93 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 0.8% | .330 | 4.51 | 27.1% | 10.4% | 140 | -0.42 | 2.77 | 310 | 80 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.45 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 3.8% | .244 | 3.02 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 167 | -2.43 | 1.95 | 232 | 80 |
| Kris Hall R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 7.02 | 12.7% | -7.8% | 34 | +2.37 | 4.65 | 106 | 79 |
| Kyle Crick R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.05 | 19.6% | 23.7% | 1.1% | .278 | 3.85 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 231 | -1.20 | 2.59 | 383 | 79 |
| Justin Ferrell R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 3.4% | .261 | 4.31 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 173 | -1.17 | 3.80 | 300 | 79 |
| Kelvin Vasquez R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.80 | 14.8% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .248 | 5.43 | 15.0% | -3.0% | 103 | +0.63 | 4.80 | 180 | 78 |
| Connor Walsh R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.98 | 23.3% | 20.7% | 2.2% | .288 | 4.02 | 21.3% | 6.8% | 151 | -0.96 | 3.40 | 266 | 78 |
| James Acuna R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 78 |
| Jake Eddington R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.98 | 18.8% | 24.1% | 0.7% | .316 | 5.09 | 15.8% | -4.0% | 85 | +0.11 | 4.88 | 114 | 78 |
| Luis Rujano R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.67 | 19.5% | 19.4% | 1.4% | .323 | 5.85 | 11.8% | -8.9% | 23 | +1.18 | 4.67 | 178 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 20.9% | 17.4% | 1.03 | 5.47 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |