Joan Ogando — OGILVIE

Joan Ogando P Asheville Tourists

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 179 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%19.9%

BB%20.8%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	9	1	10	43	10	10	1	11%	1.1	23.3%	23.3%	0.0%	2.3%	1.74	5.36	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	9	1	10	43	10	10	1	11%	1.1	23.3%	23.3%	0.0%	2.3%	1.74	5.36	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	9	1	10	43	10	10	1	11%	1.1	23.3%	23.3%	0.0%	2.3%	1.74	5.33	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	2	40	187	54	23	2	10%	2.0	20.3%	14.9%	5.4%	1.3%	5.80	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	2	40	187	54	23	2	10%	2.0	20.3%	14.9%	5.4%	1.3%	5.80	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	2	40	187	54	23	2	10%	2.0	28.9%	12.3%	16.6%	1.1%	5.80	2.78	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	13	95	416	113	69	5	52%	3.8	20.1%	19.6%	0.5%	1.6%	4.07	4.74	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	13	95	416	113	69	5	52%	3.8	20.1%	19.6%	0.5%	1.6%	4.07	4.74	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	13	95	416	113	69	5	52%	3.8	27.2%	16.6%	10.6%	1.2%	4.07	3.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	0	37	223	60	52	7	0%	1.5	20.7%	26.8%	-6.1%	3.9%	14.35	6.90	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	0	37	223	60	52	7	0%	1.5	20.7%	26.8%	-6.1%	3.9%	14.35	6.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	HOU	25	0	37	223	60	52	7	0%	1.5	26.9%	23.3%	3.6%	3.1%	14.35	5.50	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	HOU	5	0	6	24	5	5	1	0%	1.1	19.9%	20.8%	-0.9%	2.7%	5.91	5.91	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	43	247	65	57	8	—	—	26.2%	23.1%	3.2%	3.1%	13.24	6.77	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	84	0	89	375	78	66	10	0%	1.1	20.8%	17.6%	3.2%	2.7%	5.55	5.42	-0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	87	0	91	384	82	60	10	0%	1.0	21.5%	15.6%	5.9%	2.7%	5.24	5.10	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	88	0	92	388	85	55	10	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.2%	7.7%	2.7%	5.02	4.90	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	88	0	92	388	86	54	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	14.0%	8.1%	2.7%	4.92	4.86	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	86	0	91	383	84	54	10	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.1%	8.0%	2.7%	4.91	4.90	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	84	0	88	371	81	53	10	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.3%	7.7%	2.8%	4.95	4.98	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	80	0	84	354	77	51	11	0%	1.0	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	3.0%	5.05	5.12	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	75	0	79	333	78	47	11	0%	1.1	23.4%	14.0%	9.4%	3.2%	5.03	5.02	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	42	0	44	186	39	33	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	17.6%	3.2%	2.7%	5.55	5.42	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	61	0	64	270	58	42	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	15.6%	5.9%	2.7%	5.24	5.10	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	69	45	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	14.2%	7.7%	2.7%	5.02	4.90	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	76	0	80	338	75	47	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.0%	8.1%	2.7%	4.92	4.86	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	78	0	82	346	76	49	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.1%	8.0%	2.7%	4.91	4.90	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	77	0	81	342	75	49	10	0%	1.1	21.9%	14.3%	7.7%	2.8%	4.95	4.98	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	74	0	78	329	71	48	10	0%	1.1	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	3.0%	5.05	5.12	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	74	312	73	44	10	0%	1.1	23.4%	14.0%	9.4%	3.2%	5.03	5.02	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		550	0	577	2437	536	356	68	0%	1.0	22.0%	14.6%	7.4%	2.8%	5.05	4.63	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	123	24	0%	1.1	22.0%	14.6%	7.4%	2.8%	5.05	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		79	16	183	869	178	179	19	20%	2.3	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	2.1%	6.41	5.16	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	18	200	951	195	196	20	20%	2.3	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	2.1%	6.41	5.16	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joan Ogando (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	19.9%	20.8%	2.7%	—	5.14	21.4%	5.6%	272	-0.77	—	—	—
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	87
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	85
Jared Kelley R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	18.9%	19.4%	1.9%	.365	4.90	16.4%	0.7%	99	-0.13	4.25	250	83
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	82
Cole Percival R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	22	SU	4.99	16.5%	14.9%	2.5%	.243	4.70	16.6%	3.7%	218	-0.29	3.58	327	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	81
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	81
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	81
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	81
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	80
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	80
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	80
Kyle Wilcox R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	22	SW	4.92	16.2%	22.0%	0.7%	.330	4.23	27.1%	10.4%	140	-0.69	2.78	310	80
Jhonleider Salinas R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	22	SU	4.79	17.9%	19.1%	1.5%	.237	5.40	17.7%	2.3%	84	+0.61	3.79	238	79
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	79
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	79
Kyle Crick R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	22	SW	4.95	19.6%	23.7%	0.9%	.278	3.84	19.7%	7.7%	231	-1.11	2.64	383	79
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	78
Wilber Perez R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	21	SU	5.27	18.9%	18.3%	2.6%	.187	7.23	17.8%	1.5%	109	+1.96	3.02	265	78
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	86	21.7%	15.3%	1.08	5.16
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10