Joan Ogando
P
Asheville Tourists
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 179 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.0 · 2030
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%8.9%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2030
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 9 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.74 | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 20 | 2 | 40 | 187 | 54 | 23 | 2 | 20.3% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 5.80 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 25 | 13 | 95 | 416 | 113 | 69 | 5 | 20.1% | 19.6% | 1.5% | 4.07 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 89 | 53 | 11 | 22.2% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.76 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 99 | 422 | 94 | 57 | 11 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 119 | 501 | 115 | 58 | 13 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 136 | 62 | 15 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 28 | 28 | 151 | 639 | 151 | 64 | 17 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.21 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 29 | 29 | 158 | 668 | 159 | 66 | 18 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.19 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 29 | 29 | 161 | 680 | 162 | 67 | 18 | 23.9% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 29 | 29 | 161 | 679 | 162 | 68 | 18 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +1.9 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 29 | 29 | 157 | 663 | 157 | 67 | 18 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.27 | +1.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 151 | 65 | 18 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +1.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 27 | 27 | 147 | 621 | 144 | 64 | 18 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 26 | 26 | 141 | 596 | 137 | 62 | 18 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +1.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 25 | 135 | 569 | 129 | 60 | 17 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +1.1 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 23 | 23 | 128 | 541 | 121 | 58 | 17 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 112 | 56 | 17 | 21.9% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 16 | 150 | 667 | 137 | 123 | 10 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 1.5% | 4.39 | 4.52 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 21 | 200 | 891 | 183 | 164 | 13 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 1.5% | 4.39 | 4.52 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joan Ogando (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 22.2% | 13.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 408 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Max Bain R 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.17 | 20.5% | 15.2% | 3.4% | .291 | 6.72 | 16.7% | -3.9% | 81 | +1.55 | 5.17 | 174 | 92 |
| Juaron Watts-Brown R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.24 | 21.8% | 15.4% | 3.7% | .294 | 4.20 | 24.4% | 13.6% | 124 | -1.04 | 4.20 | 227 | 92 |
| R.J. Freure R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.14 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.8% | .286 | 5.83 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.14 | 196 | 92 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.17 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | .302 | 5.82 | 12.3% | -1.5% | 12 | +1.65 | 4.17 | 110 | 91 |
| Will Schomberg R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.84 | 21.4% | 15.6% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 90 | -0.99 | 3.85 | 206 | 91 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.24 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 5.78 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.54 | 2.86 | 357 | 90 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.55 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.87 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.68 | 2.16 | 615 | 90 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 90 |
| Zach Messinger R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.34 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 314 | +0.35 | 3.71 | 397 | 89 |
| Corey Black R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.55 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.63 | 3.55 | 139 | 89 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.5% | .291 | 5.47 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.19 | 2.92 | 145 | 89 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 3.2% | .280 | 5.01 | 16.9% | 5.2% | 391 | +0.15 | 4.06 | 498 | 88 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.06 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .304 | 4.44 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -0.62 | 3.54 | 352 | 88 |
| Jacob Watters R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.93 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 2.2% | .319 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 5.1% | 81 | -0.54 | 3.86 | 165 | 87 |
| J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.5% | .259 | 5.11 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.15 | 4.70 | 195 | 87 |
| Will Watson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.13 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.39 | 15.6% | 5.0% | 11 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 132 | 87 |
| Tyler Brown R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.2% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .332 | 5.47 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 114 | -0.19 | 4.50 | 205 | 86 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.83 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .302 | 4.62 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.21 | 2.74 | 347 | 85 |
| Zach Fruit R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | .258 | 5.07 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.79 | 4.28 | 151 | 85 |
| Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.4% | .276 | 4.79 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.34 | 4.45 | 308 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.8 | $18M | +$15M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.7 | $17M | +$14M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $16M | +$11M |
| Totals | $14M | $106M | +$92M | ||