Drew Pestka
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 22
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 118
ERA5.23
FIP5.23
K%19.4%
BB%15.4%
K-BB%4.0%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 15.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 2.91 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.7% | 10.6% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 2.91 | 2.68 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 31 | 0 | 54 | 243 | 64 | 32 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.5% | 15.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 4.67 | 3.42 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 31 | 0 | 54 | 243 | 64 | 32 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.3% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 4.67 | 2.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 12 | 0 | 12 | 65 | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 26.5% | -7.6% | 3.8% | 9.75 | 6.97 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CIN | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 43 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 15.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | 15.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 5.23 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 64 | 287 | 59 | 49 | 8 | — | — | 20.6% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 6.07 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.4% | 15.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 47 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 13.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 5.00 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 13.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 5.00 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 35 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 59 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.40 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 109 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 13.0% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.88 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 88 | 402 | 78 | 69 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 4.93 | 4.18 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 0 | 200 | 917 | 177 | 158 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 4.93 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Pestka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 19.4% | 15.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.80 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 110 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Stefan Raeth R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 124 | -0.03 | 4.36 | 173 | 93 |
| Ben Hecht R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 58 | +0.01 | 4.55 | 155 | 92 |
| James Acuna R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 91 |
| Adam Ravenelle R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.37 | 19.6% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .322 | 4.84 | 17.1% | 4.3% | 130 | +0.47 | 4.37 | 165 | 90 |
| Matt Brill R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 90 |
| Cole Hillier R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 89 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.94 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.31 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 91 | -1.63 | 2.79 | 144 | 88 |
| Miguel Alfonseca R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.85 | 20.1% | 16.4% | 2.5% | .354 | 6.00 | 11.6% | -3.8% | 56 | +1.15 | 4.24 | 123 | 88 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .295 | 5.27 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 93 | -0.01 | 3.94 | 189 | 88 |
| Tyler Smith R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.30 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.45 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 94 | -0.85 | 3.48 | 121 | 88 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 88 |
| Will McAffer R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 18.1% | 1.7% | .270 | 6.10 | 18.5% | -4.0% | 77 | +1.51 | 4.59 | 133 | 87 |
| Konnor Ash R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.57 | 22.2% | 17.0% | 2.2% | .340 | 3.50 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 87 | -1.07 | 2.11 | 127 | 87 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 87 |
| Audry Lugo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 17.6% | 15.8% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.73 | 13.7% | -2.6% | 39 | +0.94 | 4.05 | 113 | 87 |
| Kasey Ford R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.68 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .310 | 4.31 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -0.37 | 2.53 | 114 | 87 |
| Junior Rincon R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 86 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 86 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 86 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 20.5% | 14.5% | 2.2% | .221 | 5.78 | 17.6% | 0.2% | 62 | +1.36 | 4.42 | 103 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 20.4% | 13.8% | 1.01 | 5.01 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |