Drew Pestka
P
Dayton Dragons
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%11.3%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 14 | 0 | 22 | 94 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 19.0% | 15.1% | 1.6% | 2.91 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 31 | 0 | 54 | 243 | 64 | 32 | 0 | 19.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 4.67 | 3.42 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 45 | 190 | 46 | 22 | 5 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 46 | 17 | 5 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 46 | 17 | 5 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 45 | 17 | 5 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 44 | 17 | 5 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 0 | 79 | 350 | 72 | 55 | 1 | 20.6% | 15.7% | 0.4% | 4.00 | 3.58 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 0 | 200 | 890 | 183 | 140 | 3 | 20.6% | 15.7% | 0.4% | 4.00 | 3.58 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Pestka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.14 | 23.6% | 14.0% | 133 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 94 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 94 |
| TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 91 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.08 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.58 | 3.73 | 156 | 91 |
| Hunter Dula R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .340 | 4.56 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.66 | 3.90 | 132 | 91 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 91 |
| Cole Gordon R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 90 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 90 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.84 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .254 | 4.24 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 130 | -0.60 | 4.16 | 159 | 89 |
| Will Kincanon R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.75 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.76 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 58 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 122 | 89 |
| Sean Isaac R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.77 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.50 | 3.27 | 155 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 89 |
| Davison Palermo R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .246 | 4.95 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 108 | +0.65 | 4.30 | 151 | 89 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 88 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 88 |
| Ismael Cabrera R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.22 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 95 | +0.43 | 3.56 | 133 | 88 |
| Blake Holub R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .339 | 3.87 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.75 | 3.42 | 202 | 88 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.38 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | .324 | 3.97 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 152 | 88 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 88 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||