Drew Pestka — OGILVIE

Drew Pestka P Dayton Dragons

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%19.4%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	94	26	10	1	0%	1.5	19.0%	15.1%	3.8%	1.5%	2.91	4.26	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	94	26	10	1	0%	1.5	19.0%	15.1%	3.8%	1.5%	2.91	4.26	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	22	94	26	10	1	0%	1.5	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	1.1%	2.91	2.68	—
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	54	243	64	32	0	0%	1.7	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	0.0%	4.67	3.42	—
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	54	243	64	32	0	0%	1.7	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	0.0%	4.67	3.42	—
2025	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	54	243	64	32	0	0%	1.7	26.3%	13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	4.67	2.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	0	29	154	31	28	5	0%	1.2	15.5%	20.9%	-5.4%	4.1%	8.79	6.67	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	0	29	154	31	28	5	0%	1.2	15.5%	20.9%	-5.4%	4.1%	8.79	6.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	CIN	23	0	29	154	31	28	5	0%	1.2	20.1%	18.2%	1.9%	3.2%	8.79	5.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	54	230	47	33	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	14.5%	6.0%	2.6%	5.12	5.01	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	53	0	56	236	50	31	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.1%	8.2%	2.6%	4.89	4.78	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	26	0	27	114	23	17	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	14.5%	6.0%	2.6%	5.12	5.01	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	37	0	39	165	35	22	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.1%	8.2%	2.6%	4.89	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	279	58	38	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.7%	7.3%	2.6%	4.98	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	115	21	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.7%	7.3%	2.6%	4.98	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		68	0	104	491	89	84	8	0%	1.5	18.1%	17.1%	1.0%	1.6%	5.43	4.60	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	941	171	161	15	0%	1.5	18.1%	17.1%	1.0%	1.6%	5.43	4.60	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Pestka (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	19.4%	16.6%	2.6%	—	4.89	20.9%	7.1%	110	-0.49	—	—	—
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	92
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	91
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	91
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	90
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	89
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	88
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	88
Jonathan Teaney R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	22.5%	19.8%	1.9%	.328	5.65	16.4%	0.7%	55	+0.88	4.77	108	88
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	88
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	87
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	87
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	86
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	86
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	86
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	20.4%	14.7%	1.01	5.12
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48