Bradley Hanner

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	44	56	2.91	2.96	27.5%	10.0%	—	K 22.5% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.47
2025	26	AAACLE	42	49	4.74	5.53	29.0%	11.7%	—	K 24.9% · BB 10.5% · FIP 5.69
2026	27	MIX2 levels	51	65	3.06	3.16	28.0%	9.6%	1.1	K 25.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 2.70
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYY	45	47	4.09	4.09	25.4%	9.7%	0.3
2028PROJ76% MLB	29	MLBNYY	42	44	4.19	4.24	24.9%	9.9%	0.2
2029PROJ82% MLB	30	MLBNYY	39	41	4.33	4.43	24.5%	10.1%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsMatt Ramsey (age 28) · Josh Lueke (age 28) · Jason Bulger (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

K%25.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	11	0	27	108	30	12	1	0%	2.4	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	1.3%	4.39	3.98	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	11	0	27	108	30	12	1	0%	2.4	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.9%	4.39	2.69	—
2021	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	26	1	42	208	49	33	0	4%	1.6	17.4%	18.7%	-1.3%	0.0%	7.13	4.00	—
2021	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	26	1	42	208	49	33	0	4%	1.6	23.6%	15.9%	7.7%	0.0%	7.13	3.12	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	39	1	59	250	65	27	4	3%	1.5	20.0%	12.4%	7.6%	2.1%	4.60	4.14	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	39	1	59	250	65	27	4	3%	1.5	26.0%	10.8%	15.2%	1.6%	4.60	3.15	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	41	0	65	280	70	32	6	0%	1.6	20.2%	12.6%	7.7%	2.8%	2.78	4.54	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	41	0	65	280	70	32	6	0%	1.6	25.0%	11.4%	13.6%	2.1%	2.78	3.63	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	56	240	66	24	4	0%	1.3	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	1.6%	2.91	3.47	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	56	240	66	24	4	0%	1.3	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	1.6%	2.91	3.47	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	56	240	66	24	4	0%	1.3	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	1.7%	2.91	2.96	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	42	0	49	214	62	25	13	0%	1.2	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	6.1%	4.74	5.69	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	42	0	49	214	62	25	13	0%	1.2	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	6.1%	4.74	5.69	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	42	0	49	214	62	25	13	0%	1.2	29.0%	11.7%	17.3%	6.1%	4.74	5.53	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	65	271	76	26	6	0%	1.3	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	0.9%	3.06	2.70	+1.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	65	271	76	26	6	0%	1.3	25.0%	9.5%	15.5%	0.9%	3.06	2.70	+1.4
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	65	271	76	26	6	0%	1.3	28.0%	9.6%	18.5%	2.2%	3.06	3.16	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	7	34	7	1	4	0%	1.5	20.6%	2.9%	17.6%	11.8%	8.59	8.69	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYY	45	0	47	198	50	19	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	58	244	61	24	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.24	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	48	0	50	211	52	21	7	0%	1.0	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	3.2%	4.33	4.43	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	42	0	44	186	46	18	5	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.24	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	39	0	41	173	42	18	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	3.2%	4.33	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	0	93	394	96	37	15	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	3.8%	4.60	4.32	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	851	207	80	32	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	3.8%	4.60	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		254	2	361	1571	338	195	34	1%	1.4	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	2.2%	4.04	4.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	1	200	870	187	108	19	1%	1.4	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	2.2%	4.04	4.04	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 57 IPFIP 2.44 → 2.70 (+0.26)K% 29.1% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.11%	—	×0.860	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.55%	—	×0.900	9.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.84%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.44 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 49 IPFIP 5.47 → 5.69 (+0.22)K% 29.0% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.860	24.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.68%	—	×0.900	10.51%
HR / BF /BF	6.07%	÷1.093	×1.100	6.12%

Result: FIP 5.47 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 55 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.47 (+0.74)K% 27.7% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.73%	—	×0.810	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×1.100	11.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷0.966	×1.200	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 65 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.54 (+0.92)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.100	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷0.909	×1.200	2.83%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 59 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.14 (+0.99)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.00%	—	×0.770	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.80%	—	×1.150	12.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷0.948	×1.250	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 42 IPFIP 3.12 → 4.00 (+0.88)K% 23.6% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.56%	—	×0.740	17.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.87%	—	×1.180	18.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.908	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Twins · 27 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.98 (+1.31)K% 27.8% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.680	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.250	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bradley Hanner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	25.4%	9.7%	2.8%	—	4.33	24.7%	14.7%	108	+0.24	—	—	—
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	86
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	85
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	85
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	84
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	83
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	81
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	81
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	81
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	80
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	79
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	79
Jason Motte R 2010 · 3.24 FIP	28	SU	3.24	26.0%	7.2%	2.6%	.269	2.69	27.3%	21.8%	140	-0.55	2.22	387	78
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	78
Rafael Betancourt R 2003 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	23.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.216	2.84	25.0%	20.8%	191	-0.97	1.79	686	78
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	78
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	78
Fernando Rodney R 2005 · 3.62 FIP	28	SU	3.62	22.7%	7.6%	2.7%	.274	3.54	23.4%	12.9%	163	-0.08	1.85	933	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	24.8%	9.6%	1.28	4.37
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*