Yaxson Lucena — OGILVIE

Yaxson LucenaOF FCL Cardinals

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 72 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .278 / .308

PA72

HR1

K%24

BB%8

BABIP255

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	130	119	20	3	0	1	8	38	3	3	0	168	238	218	457	50	237	29	6	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	130	114	28	4	0	2	13	26	3	3	0	246	338	333	672	88	302	20	10	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	190	159	33	7	2	2	18	31	10	4	3	208	326	314	641	107	240	16	9	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	190	147	44	10	3	3	30	20	10	4	3	299	449	469	919	170	323	11	16	408	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	STL	—	88	76	7	1	1	0	11	20	1	1	2	92	216	132	347	39	125	23	12	161	-19	-12	-1	+0	-1	+2	-1.1
YTD	19	ROK	STL	—	88	70	8	1	1	0	17	14	1	1	2	114	295	157	453	43	143	16	19	238	40	-6	-1	+0	-1	+2	-0.5
ROS	19	ROK	STL	0%	72	65	13	2	1	1	6	17	1	1	1	200	278	308	585	108	260	24	8	264	60	-3	-0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	STL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		260	—	—	253	52	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	STL	—	88	77	7	1	1	0	11	20	1	1	2	91	216	130	346	39	123	23	12	161	-19	-12	-1	+0	-1	+2	-1.1
TOT	19	ROK	STL	—	160	141	20	3	2	1	17	37	2	2	3	142	244	213	457	71	184	23	11	207	17	-15	-1	+0	-1	+5	-1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	STL	34%	242	215	44	8	2	3	21	57	4	3	2	205	287	302	590	98	264	24	9	275	68	-9	-0	+0	-1	+7	-0.4
2028	21	MLB	STL	48%	365	323	70	13	3	6	33	85	6	5	2	217	301	331	632	115	267	23	9	283	75	-10	+0	+0	-2	+10	-0.2
2027	20	MLB	STL	34%	83	75	16	3	1	1	7	20	1	1	1	213	289	320	609	107	264	24	8	263	60	-4	-0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	STL	48%	177	156	33	6	1	3	16	41	3	3	1	212	297	321	618	109	267	23	9	271	66	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	260	232	49	9	2	4	23	61	4	4	2	211	295	319	614	108	268	23	9	269	64	-11	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	122	22	5	10	58	152	10	10	5	210	294	317	611	107	267	23	9	269	64	-26	+0	+0	-4	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	999	881	180	33	8	13	86	228	24	16	8	204	293	304	597	100	259	23	9	269	64	-40	+0	+0	-6	+28	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	116	21	5	8	56	148	16	10	5	202	291	298	590	96	257	23	9	269	64	-26	+0	+0	-4	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	130	114	28	4	0	2	13	26	3	3	0	246	338	333	672	88	302	20	10	311	96	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	190	147	44	10	3	3	30	20	10	4	3	299	449	469	919	170	323	11	16	408	170	+15	-0	—	—	+5	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	420	6	6	217	294	321	-3	+0	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	10	10	217	294	321	-4.0	+0.0	-0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yaxson Lucena (OGILVIE)	19	55	35	45	60	142/244/213	71	184	1	2	23%	11%	17	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cornelius Randolph 2016 · A	19	48	38→45	46→45	50	221/301/310	89	290	3	8	23%	9%	73	-0.1	221/288/311	90	308	6	6	28%	7%	68	-0.5	219/285/303	84	306	7	5	29%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Matthew Sulentic 2007 · A	19	45→55	40→45	45→50	45	215/275/308	93	278	7	7	25%	7%	61	-1.0	217/264/311	94	294	8	9	27%	5%	57	-1.2	244/290/336	92	351	7	13	31%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Joe Dickerson 2006 · A	19	43→53	41→40	46→55	43	208/263/319	111	281	7	9	28%	7%	59	-1.1	227/275/325	98	284	7	14	22%	5%	65	-0.7	247/301/332	86	308	4	21	20%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Jesus Martinez 2014 · A	19	49	36→30	44→55	54	229/302/301	71	269	3	7	15%	9%	71	-0.3	220/279/277	57	275	2	13	19%	7%	54	-1.4	217/274/256	39	271	1	18	19%	7%	44	-0.8
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	49	39→40	48→45	45	221/299/315	95	336	6	8	33%	9%	74	-0.1	200/266/272	72	314	3	9	34%	7%	48	-1.9	172/232/221	49	286	0	8	37%	6%	18	-1.1
✕Rodrigo Orozco 2014 · A	19	45→55	40	46→50	48	215/281/315	100	269	6	8	22%	7%	66	-0.6	224/285/309	85	275	5	11	19%	7%	66	-0.6	248/302/327	79	313	3	11	20%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Rochest Cruz 2018 · A	19	46	36→40	43→65	52	214/289/283	69	266	3	10	20%	9%	61	-1.0	213/286/278	65	276	3	30	22%	8%	59	-1.1	205/284/259	53	265	2	47	21%	8%	50	-0.6
✕Yeicok Calderon 2011 · A	19	48	43→45	49→45	47	231/304/342	111	311	10	7	27%	9%	82	+0.5	194/249/317	123	305	13	6	38%	6%	53	-1.5	182/230/304	122	290	15	3	41%	6%	39	-0.8
✕Jeisson Rosario 2019 · A	19	48→49	36→45	46→50	47	224/293/289	66	312	3	11	27%	9%	64	-0.8	207/289/278	71	307	4	10	30%	10%	60	-1.0	197/291/307	109	288	11	12	32%	11%	65	-0.4
✕Randel Alcantara 2016 · A	19	44	41→45	46→45	43	211/283/321	110	282	7	6	26%	6%	69	-0.4	197/255/304	107	263	9	6	27%	5%	53	-1.5	132/175/242	109	157	14	3	27%	3%	1	-1.4
✕Dario Unda 2015 · A	19	46	39→45	41→45	43	220/274/317	97	288	5	5	24%	6%	63	-0.8	223/277/331	108	281	8	6	23%	6%	68	-0.5	224/275/343	119	274	11	7	22%	6%	68	-0.1
✕Alain Camou 2023 · A	19	52	37→40	46→50	53	241/307/322	81	285	3	10	16%	8%	78	+0.2	207/265/272	65	271	2	6	22%	7%	47	-1.9	177/232/223	46	237	0	2	24%	6%	19	-1.0
✕Yolki Pena 2018 · A	18	48	37→45	43→55	52	226/299/297	71	282	4	5	20%	9%	69	-0.4	211/308/302	91	283	4	13	24%	12%	75	-0.0	176/318/294	118	239	2	26	23%	16%	78	+0.1
✕Exicardo Cayones 2011 · A	19	46	36→40	43→45	43	216/284/293	77	285	2	8	24%	6%	62	-0.9	213/282/290	77	307	2	9	29%	7%	59	-1.1	225/301/299	74	331	3	10	30%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Oswal Leones 2019 · A	18	47	38→30	46→50	50	223/289/300	77	265	6	12	18%	8%	66	-0.6	201/263/266	65	273	3	11	25%	7%	45	-2.1	164/231/213	49	250	1	11	32%	8%	16	-1.3
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→49	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	230/299/349	119	326	11	11	30%	9%	82	+0.5	228/302/349	121	326	10	15	31%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Victor Padron 2013 · A	19	46	37→30	53→55	51	217/289/294	76	266	4	10	19%	8%	63	-0.8	230/291/277	47	289	1	15	19%	8%	59	-1.1	242/307/262	20	301	0	20	18%	9%	58	-0.4
✕Marcus Lemon 2008 · A	20	48→53	37→40	46→45	46	226/292/310	84	301	3	10	24%	7%	69	-0.4	240/291/327	87	298	5	8	20%	6%	72	-0.2	233/281/325	92	296	4	6	22%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Tim Kennelly 2006 · A	19	46→52	38→40	48→40	51	217/291/303	86	268	4	7	20%	9%	67	-0.5	213/270/301	88	294	5	6	27%	7%	57	-1.2	241/301/332	91	301	4	4	20%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2012 · A	18	48	37→40	50	53	224/302/310	86	274	3	10	18%	9%	73	-0.1	188/245/267	79	274	5	6	31%	6%	38	-2.6	150/201/214	65	228	4	3	35%	5%	3	-1.3