Yaxson Lucena

OF FCL Cardinals

Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2249ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKSTL	130	.246/.338/.333	2	3	16	—	.153/.231/.195
2025	18	ROKSTL	190	.299/.449/.469	3	4	65	—	.179/.316/.263
2026	19	ROKSTL	88	.114/.295/.157	0	1	-4	—	.092/.216/.132
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBSTL	198	.217/.294/.305	2	3	72	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBSTL	35	.222/.299/.319	0	1	77	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBSTL	93	.225/.303/.329	1	1	80	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%96

Whiff%93

K%78

BB%76

Chase%72

Speed35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCornelius Randolph (age 20) · Enmanuel Terrero (age 20) · Carlos Rodríguez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .292 / .302

PA49

HR0

K%25

BB%8

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	130	114	28	4	0	2	13	26	3	3	0	246	338	333	672	88	302	20	10	311	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	190	147	44	10	3	3	30	20	10	4	3	299	449	469	919	170	323	11	16	408	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	88	70	8	1	1	0	17	14	1	1	2	114	295	157	453	43	143	16	19	238	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	118	18	2	0	1	9	32	3	3	0	153	231	195	426	42	197	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	156	28	6	2	1	21	25	10	4	3	179	316	263	578	83	196	13	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	88	76	7	1	1	0	11	20	1	1	2	92	216	132	347	39	114	23	12	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	118	18	2	0	1	9	32	3	3	0	153	231	195	426	42	200	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	130	114	28	4	0	2	13	26	3	3	0	246	338	333	672	88	302	20	10	311	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	156	28	6	2	1	21	25	10	4	3	179	316	263	578	83	203	13	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	190	147	44	10	3	3	30	20	10	4	3	299	449	469	919	170	323	11	16	408	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	88	76	7	1	1	0	11	20	1	1	2	92	216	132	347	39	125	23	12	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	88	70	8	1	1	0	17	14	1	1	2	114	295	157	453	43	143	16	19	238	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	117	18	2	0	1	9	32	3	3	0	154	231	197	427	43	197	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	157	28	6	2	1	21	25	10	4	3	178	316	261	577	83	196	13	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	88	76	7	1	1	0	11	20	1	1	2	92	216	132	347	39	114	23	12	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	117	18	2	0	1	9	32	3	3	0	154	231	197	427	43	197	25	7	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	157	28	6	2	1	21	25	10	4	3	178	316	261	577	83	196	13	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	88	76	7	1	1	0	11	20	1	1	2	92	216	132	347	39	114	23	12	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	STL	0%	198	177	39	7	2	2	16	49	3	3	1	217	294	305	599	88	286	25	8	274	72	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	STL	34%	103	91	21	4	1	1	9	25	2	2	1	221	299	319	618	98	288	24	9	281	77	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	STL	48%	191	170	39	7	2	3	16	46	3	3	1	225	302	330	632	106	289	24	8	287	80	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	STL	54%	286	256	58	10	2	5	24	68	4	5	2	228	305	339	644	112	290	24	8	292	83	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	STL	55%	365	326	75	13	3	6	31	87	5	6	2	230	307	346	653	116	291	24	8	295	86	-6	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	STL	56%	409	365	85	15	3	8	35	97	6	6	2	231	308	351	658	120	291	24	9	297	87	-6	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	STL	56%	436	390	90	16	3	8	37	103	6	7	3	231	308	351	659	120	291	24	8	297	87	-7	+0	+0	-3	+9	0.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	445	398	91	16	3	8	38	106	6	7	3	230	307	348	655	119	290	24	9	296	86	-7	+0	+0	-3	+10	-0.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	446	399	91	16	3	8	38	107	6	6	3	228	305	344	648	116	289	24	9	293	84	-8	+0	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	STL	34%	35	31	6	1	0	0	3	9	1	1	0	222	299	319	618	96	290	26	9	282	77	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	STL	48%	93	84	18	3	1	1	8	22	1	1	1	225	303	329	632	104	291	24	9	287	80	-2	-0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	STL	54%	155	139	31	6	1	2	13	37	2	2	1	228	305	338	643	110	292	24	8	291	83	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	STL	55%	202	180	42	8	2	3	17	48	3	3	1	230	307	344	651	114	293	24	8	294	86	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	STL	56%	229	205	48	9	2	4	19	54	3	4	1	231	308	349	657	117	293	24	8	297	87	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	STL	56%	245	219	50	9	2	4	21	58	3	4	1	231	308	349	657	118	293	24	9	297	87	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	246	220	50	9	2	4	21	59	3	4	2	230	307	346	653	116	292	24	9	295	86	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	245	219	50	9	2	4	21	59	3	3	2	228	305	342	647	113	291	24	9	292	84	-5	-0	-0	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1450	1297	295	54	12	22	123	346	19	22	9	227	304	338	642	111	292	24	8	294	78	-25	+1	-0	-9	+31	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	132	24	5	10	55	155	9	10	4	227	304	337	641	110	291	24	8	294	78	-11	+0	-0	-4	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3138	2789	612	108	23	49	273	728	53	51	22	219	301	327	628	108	278	23	9	284	78	-49	+2	-1	-16	+59	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	126	22	5	10	57	151	11	11	5	218	300	325	626	107	276	23	9	284	78	-12	+0	-0	-4	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Cardinals · 88 PAwOBA .233 → .163 (−71)K% 15.9% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.91%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.32%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	12.07%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.82%
Singles /BIP	10.71%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.999	×1.008	8.85%
Doubles /BIP	1.79%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.999	×1.008	1.29%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.999	×1.008	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .233 → .163; ISO .043 → .031; BABIP .143 → .114. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Cardinals · 190 PAwOBA .405 → .265 (−140)K% 10.5% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.53%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	13.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷1.022	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.90%
HBP% /PA	5.26%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.71%
Singles /BIP	22.05%	÷1.019	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	14.09%
Doubles /BIP	7.87%	÷0.990	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	4.57%
Triples /BIP	2.36%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	2.36%	÷1.047	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.07%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .405 → .265; ISO .170 → .094; BABIP .323 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Cardinals · 130 PAwOBA .304 → .192 (−111)K% 20.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.93%
HBP% /PA	2.31%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.65%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.997	×0.680	×0.961	×1.022	16.76%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷0.976	×0.600	×0.961	×1.022	2.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.132	×0.600	×0.961	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.27%	÷1.307	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.84%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 161, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 126, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .304 → .192; ISO .088 → .040; BABIP .302 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.3	1,499	26	23	230	303	345	-9	+0	0.7	0.7
/162	664	12	10	-4.0	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yaxson Lucena (OGILVIE)	20	55	35	45	60	215/292/302	87	286	0	1	25%	8%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cornelius Randolph 2017 · A	20	49→51	38→45	44→45	46	229/297/311	82	309	4	7	26%	8%	75	-0.5	224/289/321	97	318	8	6	30%	8%	74	-0.5	219/286/316	98	309	9	6	30%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	46	37→45	47→55	56	216/300/287	72	267	3	12	19%	11%	71	-0.8	208/277/303	95	322	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.2	191/260/285	94	305	11	18	38%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2021 · A	20	48→58	37→40	46→55	43	228/266/305	76	268	4	10	17%	4%	61	-1.5	233/288/311	78	313	3	14	25%	7%	70	-0.8	265/323/349	84	315	3	16	16%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Hendry Mendez 2024 · A	20	48→57	38→45	40→45	49	226/290/302	77	280	5	4	21%	8%	70	-0.8	250/318/351	101	303	8	6	19%	9%	92	+0.7	262/336/372	110	313	10	6	18%	9%	101	+1.0
✕Ramón Flores 2012 · A	20	47→57	40→45	50	46	225/283/320	95	286	7	8	24%	7%	72	-0.7	244/302/348	104	307	7	10	21%	7%	84	+0.2	255/328/354	99	304	9	8	18%	9%	94	+0.6
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	46→51	41→45	46→55	51	218/304/317	98	298	9	7	28%	10%	79	-0.2	237/308/353	116	333	10	11	29%	9%	88	+0.5	242/319/359	118	343	9	15	29%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Matt Cerda 2010 · A	20	43→53	38→40	50→40	46	207/264/285	78	263	6	6	23%	7%	56	-1.9	239/314/318	79	300	3	4	19%	10%	82	+0.0	241/325/315	74	303	3	4	19%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Anthony Seigler 2019 · A	20	45→40	38→45	48→55	50	214/284/293	79	268	6	5	22%	8%	66	-1.1	196/276/274	78	288	5	5	30%	9%	59	-1.7	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Jorge Ruiz 2024 · A	20	54→52	38→40	51→50	45	252/308/336	85	308	4	12	19%	6%	84	+0.2	226/274/301	75	294	4	13	23%	5%	63	-1.3	220/267/292	72	284	3	13	23%	5%	56	-1.5
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	46	38→40	48→45	50	212/301/299	87	300	5	8	28%	10%	74	-0.5	199/264/269	70	309	2	9	33%	7%	53	-2.1	176/234/225	50	289	0	8	36%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Felipe Burin 2012 · A	20	51	36→40	40→45	50	238/302/311	73	295	2	4	19%	8%	76	-0.4	214/277/280	66	287	2	5	24%	8%	60	-1.6	161/234/188	28	217	0	3	24%	8%	24	-1.2
✕Yohendrick Pinango 2022 · A	20	51→54	38→50	50	44	243/286/325	83	297	5	9	20%	6%	73	-0.6	221/266/322	101	276	9	10	22%	6%	65	-1.2	223/292/355	132	284	14	7	25%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Marcus Lemon 2008 · A	20	50→55	38→40	46→45	47	233/301/319	86	310	3	10	24%	8%	78	-0.3	248/302/338	90	307	5	8	20%	6%	82	-0.0	254/303/338	84	308	4	7	18%	6%	79	-0.2
✕Danry Vasquez 2014 · A	20	49→55	40	45	43	235/271/327	92	279	8	6	19%	4%	68	-1.0	246/287/337	91	299	6	6	19%	5%	76	-0.4	243/287/338	95	286	7	14	17%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→50	41→45	47→55	46	197/270/297	100	265	8	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	207/284/295	88	286	5	16	27%	9%	67	-1.1	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Herlis Rodriguez 2014 · A	20	45→53	39→45	40→50	43	219/264/302	84	279	6	7	24%	6%	59	-1.6	241/279/337	96	300	8	8	21%	4%	73	-0.6	210/270/325	115	278	10	12	27%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Matthew Sulentic 2007 · A	19	45→55	40→45	45→50	45	218/279/312	94	283	7	7	25%	7%	68	-1.0	222/270/317	95	300	8	9	27%	5%	65	-1.2	256/305/351	95	360	7	13	29%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Daryl Jones 2007 · A	20	42→52	41→45	49→50	41	203/270/300	97	269	8	10	27%	6%	63	-1.4	226/292/322	96	303	8	14	26%	7%	76	-0.4	242/312/349	107	314	9	14	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Darryl Collins 2022 · A	20	45	38→40	50→45	51	212/292/289	77	265	5	11	21%	9%	68	-1.0	209/287/289	80	273	4	11	23%	9%	66	-1.1	198/286/277	79	269	1	9	24%	11%	64	-0.7
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	49→59	39→30	44→45	52	232/313/323	92	294	5	6	22%	10%	84	+0.1	246/336/323	77	297	4	8	17%	9%	93	+0.8	269/354/337	68	315	2	8	14%	8%	100	+1.0

Yaxson Lucena

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps