Yaxson Lucena — OGILVIE

Yaxson LucenaOF FCL Cardinals

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 12 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .250 / .182

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP260

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	130	114	28	4	0	2	13	26	3	3	0	246	338	333	672	88	302	20	10	311	97	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	190	147	44	10	3	3	30	20	10	4	3	299	449	469	919	170	323	11	16	408	162	+14	-0	—	—	+4	1.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	119	20	3	0	1	8	38	3	3	0	168	238	218	457	50	233	29	6	206	26	-12	+1	—	—	+3	-0.8
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	159	34	7	2	2	18	30	10	4	3	214	332	321	652	107	236	16	9	292	84	-4	-0	—	—	+4	0.0
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	119	20	3	0	1	8	38	3	3	0	168	238	218	457	50	237	29	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	130	114	28	4	0	2	13	26	3	3	0	246	338	333	672	88	302	20	10	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	159	34	7	2	2	18	30	10	4	3	214	332	321	652	107	246	16	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	190	147	44	10	3	3	30	20	10	4	3	299	449	469	919	170	323	11	16	408	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	118	20	3	0	1	8	38	3	3	0	169	238	220	459	51	233	29	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	160	34	7	2	2	18	30	10	4	3	212	332	319	650	106	236	16	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	130	118	20	3	0	1	8	38	3	3	0	169	238	220	459	51	233	29	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	190	160	34	7	2	2	18	30	10	4	3	212	332	319	650	106	236	16	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	STL	—	88	76	7	1	1	0	11	20	1	1	2	92	216	132	347	39	125	23	12	161	-5	-11	-1	+0	-1	+2	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	STL	—	88	70	8	1	1	0	17	14	1	1	2	114	295	157	453	43	143	16	19	238	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	STL	0%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		260	25	8	265	65	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	STL	—	100	87	9	1	1	0	12	23	1	1	2	103	220	138	358	34	141	23	12	173	4	-11	-1	+0	-1	+2	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	STL	34%	242	214	44	8	2	3	22	57	4	3	2	206	292	304	595	98	264	24	9	276	73	-8	-0	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	STL	34%	83	75	16	3	1	1	7	19	1	1	1	213	289	320	609	107	264	23	8	262	73	-3	-0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	83	75	16	3	1	1	7	19	1	1	1	213	289	320	609	107	273	23	8	262	66	-3	-0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	125	23	8	8	55	149	8	8	8	213	289	320	610	107	272	23	8	262	66	-21	-2	+0	-4	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	574	503	100	18	4	6	49	128	17	10	5	199	292	286	578	87	252	22	9	265	66	-8	-0	+0	-2	+6	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	114	20	5	7	55	145	19	11	6	200	292	289	581	89	253	22	8	265	66	-21	-1	+0	-4	+14	-1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	243	3	3	219	294	320	-1	+0	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	9	9	-4.0	+0.0	-0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yaxson Lucena (OGILVIE)	19	55	35	45	60	199/283/288	89	260	2	2	24%	9%	65	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cornelius Randolph 2016 · A	19	48→47	38→40	46→45	50	221/301/310	89	290	3	8	23%	9%	76	-0.4	218/284/306	88	305	6	6	28%	7%	69	-0.9	215/280/298	84	300	7	5	29%	7%	63	-1.0
✕Matthew Sulentic 2007 · A	19	45→55	40→45	45→50	45	215/275/308	93	278	7	7	25%	7%	65	-1.2	218/265/311	93	294	7	9	27%	5%	62	-1.4	252/299/344	92	354	6	13	29%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Joe Dickerson 2006 · A	19	43→53	41→40	46→55	43	208/263/319	111	281	7	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	227/275/325	98	284	7	14	22%	5%	69	-0.9	247/301/333	86	308	4	21	20%	6%	78	-0.1
✕Jesus Martinez 2014 · A	19	49	36→30	44→55	54	229/302/301	71	269	3	7	15%	9%	74	-0.5	220/279/277	57	275	2	13	19%	7%	59	-1.6	217/274/256	39	271	1	18	19%	7%	50	-0.9
✕Yeicok Calderon 2011 · A	19	48	43→45	49→45	47	231/304/342	111	311	10	7	27%	9%	84	+0.2	193/248/315	122	304	13	6	38%	6%	57	-1.8	180/228/298	118	286	14	3	41%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Rochest Cruz 2018 · A	19	46	36→40	43→65	52	214/289/283	69	266	3	10	20%	9%	65	-1.2	213/286/278	65	276	3	30	22%	8%	63	-1.3	205/284/259	53	265	2	47	21%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Alain Camou 2023 · A	19	51	37→40	46→50	53	240/305/319	80	282	3	10	16%	8%	79	-0.2	208/265/274	66	271	2	6	22%	7%	53	-2.1	181/234/228	47	241	0	2	23%	6%	30	-0.9
✕Rodrigo Orozco 2014 · A	19	45→55	40	46→50	48	215/281/315	100	269	6	8	22%	7%	70	-0.8	224/285/309	85	275	5	11	19%	7%	70	-0.9	250/305/330	80	314	3	11	20%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	49	40→45	48→45	46	222/303/321	99	333	6	8	32%	9%	80	-0.2	201/267/274	73	313	3	9	34%	7%	55	-2.0	174/233/224	49	287	0	8	36%	6%	28	-1.1
✕Randel Alcantara 2016 · A	19	44	41→45	46→45	43	211/283/321	110	282	7	6	26%	6%	73	-0.6	197/255/304	107	263	9	6	27%	5%	58	-1.7	132/175/242	109	157	14	3	27%	3%	12	-1.3
✕Dario Unda 2015 · A	19	46	39→45	41→45	43	220/274/317	97	288	5	5	24%	6%	68	-1.0	223/277/331	108	281	8	6	23%	6%	72	-0.7	224/275/343	119	274	11	7	22%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Jeisson Rosario 2019 · A	19	48→49	36→45	46→50	47	224/293/290	66	311	3	11	27%	8%	68	-1.0	208/289/275	67	306	4	10	30%	10%	64	-1.3	202/293/306	104	288	10	12	30%	11%	70	-0.5
✕Cam Maron 2010 · A	19	46→56	40	50→40	47	222/289/316	94	291	7	7	25%	8%	73	-0.6	241/308/328	87	308	7	5	22%	8%	82	+0.0	248/318/312	64	318	4	2	21%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Hendry Mendez 2023 · A	19	46→56	38→45	42→45	50	219/292/294	75	276	6	6	22%	8%	69	-0.9	234/299/322	88	290	6	5	20%	8%	78	-0.3	258/330/364	106	310	10	6	19%	9%	97	+0.8
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	48	37→45	47→55	54	222/303/297	75	280	4	12	21%	10%	74	-0.5	206/279/302	96	327	9	15	36%	9%	66	-1.1	187/261/280	94	307	11	18	40%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Yolki Pena 2018 · A	18	48	37→45	43→55	52	226/299/297	71	282	4	5	20%	9%	72	-0.7	211/308/302	91	283	4	13	24%	12%	78	-0.3	176/318/294	118	239	2	26	23%	16%	80	-0.0
✕Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	50→54	38→50	51→50	44	238/283/324	87	297	4	10	21%	6%	72	-0.7	243/298/367	124	326	10	10	27%	7%	87	+0.4	246/302/387	142	310	12	11	24%	7%	91	+0.6
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→50	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	77	-0.3	232/302/345	113	325	10	11	29%	9%	84	+0.2	233/308/347	114	330	9	15	29%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2013 · A	19	42	39→40	49→50	43	201/264/291	89	282	5	8	29%	7%	57	-1.8	183/238/255	72	271	4	6	32%	6%	40	-3.1	149/204/202	52	220	3	3	32%	5%	13	-1.4
✕Tim Kennelly 2006 · A	19	46→51	38→40	48→40	51	217/291/303	86	268	4	7	20%	9%	71	-0.8	213/270/301	88	294	5	6	27%	7%	62	-1.4	239/300/330	91	299	5	4	20%	6%	78	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps