Yaxson LucenaOF
DSL Cardinals
Age 19
L/R
6'0" / 190 lbs
ROK
HR -7%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 3.1 · 2033
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .301 / .344
PA160
HR3
K%26
BB%9
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
55→55
PWR
35→35
SPD
45→45
EYE
49↗60
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.1peak
2033
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +3.0 | $29M | +$28M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +3.1 | $31M | +$30M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +3.1 | $31M | +$30M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +3.0 | $31M | +$25M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +2.8 | $30M | +$21M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $12M | +2.6 | $29M | +$16M |
| Totals | $31M | $181M | +$150M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 130 | 119 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .168 | .238 | .218 | .457 | .050 | .237 | 29 | 6 | .204 | 14 | -13 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 190 | 159 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 3 | .201 | .321 | .296 | .616 | .094 | .233 | 16 | 9 | .281 | 73 | -6 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | STL | 160 | 143 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .224 | .302 | .343 | .645 | .119 | .291 | 26 | 9 | .294 | 83 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB 11% | STL | 242 | 214 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .238 | .321 | .383 | .704 | .145 | .299 | 24 | 10 | .315 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB 28% | STL | 365 | 320 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 85 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .244 | .331 | .394 | .725 | .150 | .301 | 23 | 10 | .326 | 108 | +3 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB 48% | STL | 454 | 397 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 103 | 7 | 9 | 2 | .249 | .339 | .408 | .747 | .159 | .301 | 23 | 10 | .334 | 114 | +7 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB 65% | STL | 512 | 444 | 113 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 55 | 113 | 8 | 9 | 2 | .255 | .347 | .421 | .768 | .167 | .301 | 22 | 11 | .339 | 118 | +10 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 2.3 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB 82% | STL | 550 | 477 | 120 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 60 | 120 | 8 | 10 | 2 | .252 | .345 | .415 | .760 | .164 | .302 | 22 | 11 | .344 | 121 | +13 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 2.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | STL | 572 | 494 | 126 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 124 | 9 | 10 | 2 | .255 | .351 | .427 | .778 | .172 | .302 | 22 | 11 | .347 | 123 | +15 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 3.0 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | STL | 584 | 504 | 130 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 66 | 126 | 9 | 10 | 2 | .258 | .354 | .433 | .787 | .175 | .303 | 22 | 11 | .348 | 125 | +16 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +17 | 3.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | STL | 586 | 505 | 129 | 23 | 3 | 19 | 67 | 127 | 9 | 9 | 2 | .255 | .353 | .426 | .779 | .170 | .303 | 22 | 11 | .349 | 125 | +16 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +17 | 3.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | STL | 583 | 501 | 127 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 68 | 128 | 9 | 9 | 1 | .253 | .353 | .423 | .776 | .170 | .303 | 22 | 12 | .347 | 124 | +16 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +17 | 3.0 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | STL | 574 | 494 | 125 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 67 | 127 | 8 | 8 | 1 | .253 | .351 | .419 | .771 | .166 | .302 | 22 | 12 | .346 | 123 | +15 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 2.8 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | STL | 564 | 485 | 122 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 66 | 127 | 8 | 8 | 0 | .252 | .351 | .419 | .769 | .167 | .301 | 23 | 12 | .343 | 120 | +13 | +2 | -2 | -3 | +16 | 2.6 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | STL | 551 | 474 | 117 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 64 | 126 | 8 | 7 | 0 | .247 | .346 | .409 | .755 | .162 | .300 | 23 | 12 | .339 | 118 | +11 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +16 | 2.2 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | STL | 533 | 458 | 112 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 62 | 125 | 8 | 6 | 0 | .245 | .345 | .404 | .749 | .159 | .299 | 23 | 12 | .334 | 114 | +8 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +15 | 1.8 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB | STL | 503 | 433 | 105 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 121 | 7 | 6 | 0 | .242 | .341 | .395 | .736 | .152 | .298 | 24 | 12 | .329 | 110 | +6 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 1.4 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB | STL | 456 | 395 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 114 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .235 | .333 | .377 | .711 | .142 | .297 | 25 | 11 | .323 | 105 | +3 | +1 | -5 | -3 | +13 | 0.9 |
| 2042 | 35 | MLB | STL | 401 | 347 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 104 | 5 | 5 | 0 | .228 | .327 | .363 | .690 | .135 | .295 | 26 | 11 | .315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | -6 | -2 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2043 | 36 | MLB | STL | 341 | 295 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 92 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .227 | .325 | .359 | .685 | .132 | .293 | 27 | 11 | .306 | 93 | -3 | +1 | -6 | -2 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2044 | 37 | MLB | STL | 277 | 240 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 78 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .212 | .313 | .329 | .642 | .117 | .290 | 28 | 11 | .297 | 85 | -5 | +1 | -7 | -2 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9128 | 7898 | 1928 | 336 | 50 | 263 | 1011 | 2109 | 141 | 140 | 21 | .244 | .340 | .399 | .740 | .155 | .299 | 23 | 11 | .332 | 112 | +123 | +20 | -38 | -55 | +259 | 31.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 562 | 138 | 24 | 4 | 19 | 72 | 150 | 10 | 10 | 1 | .246 | .341 | .404 | .745 | .158 | .301 | 23 | 11 | .332 | 112 | +9 | +2 | -3 | -4 | +18 | 2.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 130 | 114 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .246 | .338 | .333 | .672 | .088 | .302 | 20 | 10 | .311 | 96 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 190 | 147 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 3 | .299 | .449 | .469 | .919 | .170 | .323 | 11 | 16 | .408 | 170 | +15 | -0 | — | — | +5 | 2.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Yaxson Lucena (OGILVIE) | 19 | 55 | 35 | 45 | 60 | .223/.301/.344 | .121 | .291 | 3 | 3 | 26% | 9% | 83 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A |
20 | 51→58 | 41→45 | 47→50 | 51 | .245/.310/.342 | .096 | .296 | 8 | 15 | 20% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .235/.303/.332 | .097 | .280 | 8 | 11 | 18% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .263/.355/.386 | .123 | .307 | 11 | 2 | 17% | 11% | 113 | +2.8 |
|
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A |
19 | 49 | 42→45 | 48→50 | 49 | .233/.310/.344 | .110 | .300 | 9 | 12 | 24% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .223/.286/.295 | .072 | .303 | 4 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .219/.279/.260 | .041 | .287 | 0 | 14 | 22% | 6% | 47 | -0.5 |
|
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A |
19 | 50→59 | 41→50 | 50 | 56 | .236/.325/.340 | .104 | .299 | 8 | 10 | 22% | 12% | 91 | +1.1 | .251/.334/.388 | .137 | .334 | 12 | 14 | 26% | 11% | 107 | +2.2 | .247/.330/.386 | .139 | .319 | 14 | 15 | 25% | 10% | 103 | +1.9 |
|
★Jason Heyward 2009 · A |
19 | 51→60 | 44→55 | 52→50 | 44 | .250/.294/.374 | .124 | .300 | 11 | 9 | 20% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .261/.334/.425 | .164 | .305 | 17 | 10 | 19% | 9% | 117 | +2.9 | .255/.348/.438 | .183 | .301 | 21 | 14 | 22% | 12% | 121 | +3.1 |
|
✕Hendry Mendez 2023 · A |
19 | 47→54 | 38→40 | 42→45 | 50 | .222/.294/.299 | .078 | .277 | 6 | 6 | 21% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .230/.294/.318 | .088 | .284 | 7 | 5 | 20% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .244/.311/.341 | .098 | .292 | 8 | 5 | 19% | 8% | 82 | +0.3 |
|
●Jesse Winker 2013 · A |
19 | 51→61 | 41→55 | 45 | 46 | .240/.306/.344 | .104 | .324 | 8 | 4 | 27% | 8% | 84 | +0.6 | .238/.310/.370 | .132 | .296 | 13 | 5 | 23% | 9% | 92 | +1.2 | .272/.369/.498 | .227 | .291 | 28 | 1 | 17% | 11% | 143 | +2.8 |
|
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A |
19 | 50→60 | 39→50 | 48→55 | 48 | .235/.303/.327 | .092 | .279 | 6 | 11 | 18% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .235/.290/.342 | .107 | .303 | 7 | 22 | 24% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 | .262/.326/.420 | .159 | .312 | 17 | 25 | 21% | 5% | 108 | +2.1 |
|
✕Yeicok Calderon 2011 · A |
19 | 48 | 42→45 | 49→45 | 47 | .231/.304/.339 | .108 | .311 | 9 | 7 | 27% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .196/.251/.318 | .122 | .305 | 13 | 6 | 38% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .179/.225/.300 | .121 | .279 | 15 | 3 | 40% | 5% | 36 | -0.9 |
|
✕Josue De Paula 2023 · A |
18 | 50→44 | 42→40 | 50→55 | 51 | .242/.315/.355 | .113 | .299 | 9 | 14 | 21% | 9% | 90 | +1.0 | .231/.320/.328 | .097 | .309 | 8 | 16 | 25% | 11% | 86 | +0.8 | .218/.319/.316 | .098 | .293 | 9 | 21 | 26% | 12% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A |
20 | 45→47 | 41→45 | 46→55 | 51 | .216/.301/.314 | .097 | .294 | 9 | 7 | 28% | 10% | 74 | -0.1 | .227/.294/.343 | .116 | .313 | 11 | 10 | 29% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .228/.299/.352 | .124 | .336 | 11 | 21 | 33% | 9% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A |
19 | 43→53 | 46→50 | 46→40 | 47 | .216/.283/.346 | .130 | .273 | 14 | 5 | 26% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .241/.299/.377 | .136 | .292 | 16 | 4 | 22% | 7% | 90 | +1.0 | .259/.317/.396 | .137 | .305 | 16 | 3 | 20% | 7% | 100 | +1.5 |
|
✕Cole Young 2023 · A |
20 | 50→49 | 45 | 49→50 | 47 | .245/.300/.368 | .123 | .296 | 13 | 11 | 22% | 7% | 87 | +0.8 | .232/.316/.354 | .122 | .279 | 10 | 13 | 20% | 9% | 91 | +1.1 | .227/.316/.346 | .119 | .270 | 10 | 12 | 19% | 10% | 86 | +0.7 |
|
●Oscar Taveras 2012 · A |
20 | 53→55 | 44→55 | 46→45 | 44 | .258/.301/.386 | .128 | .312 | 10 | 6 | 21% | 5% | 92 | +1.2 | .270/.307/.424 | .154 | .304 | 15 | 7 | 16% | 4% | 105 | +2.1 | .267/.302/.416 | .149 | .293 | 15 | 6 | 14% | 4% | 101 | +1.2 |
|
✕Grant Lavigne 2019 · A |
19 | 52→47 | 43→45 | 47→45 | 51 | .250/.330/.361 | .112 | .320 | 9 | 10 | 24% | 10% | 98 | +1.6 | .198/.269/.278 | .080 | .290 | 7 | 7 | 32% | 8% | 52 | -1.6 | .205/.286/.317 | .112 | .307 | 11 | 4 | 34% | 9% | 66 | -0.5 |
|
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A |
21 | 48→58 | 39→40 | 45 | 51 | .228/.304/.321 | .093 | .288 | 5 | 7 | 22% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 | .241/.330/.319 | .078 | .292 | 4 | 8 | 17% | 9% | 89 | +0.9 | .264/.349/.334 | .069 | .312 | 2 | 8 | 14% | 8% | 97 | +1.1 |
|
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A |
19 | 48 | 40 | 48→45 | 46 | .220/.301/.315 | .094 | .332 | 6 | 8 | 33% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .200/.267/.273 | .073 | .315 | 3 | 9 | 34% | 7% | 49 | -1.8 | .172/.232/.221 | .049 | .286 | 0 | 8 | 37% | 6% | 18 | -1.1 |
|
✕Caleb Gindl 2008 · A |
19 | 52→54 | 43→50 | 45→50 | 42 | .249/.291/.369 | .120 | .322 | 8 | 6 | 25% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .239/.292/.367 | .128 | .326 | 12 | 9 | 29% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .244/.307/.372 | .128 | .301 | 13 | 9 | 22% | 8% | 89 | +0.8 |
|
●Alex Verdugo 2016 · A |
20 | 53→58 | 42→50 | 51→45 | 43 | .257/.287/.364 | .107 | .290 | 9 | 10 | 15% | 4% | 80 | +0.4 | .254/.298/.362 | .108 | .290 | 10 | 7 | 16% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .289/.349/.442 | .153 | .326 | 15 | 7 | 16% | 8% | 121 | +2.1 |
|
✕John Drennen 2007 · A |
20 | 46→56 | 43→45 | 45 | 43 | .224/.283/.336 | .113 | .287 | 11 | 8 | 25% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .216/.271/.319 | .103 | .275 | 9 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .244/.295/.365 | .121 | .292 | 9 | 1 | 19% | 6% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
●Evan Carter 2022 · A |
19 | 46→52 | 43→50 | 52→55 | 54 | .219/.321/.336 | .117 | .295 | 9 | 17 | 27% | 11% | 89 | +1.0 | .230/.314/.374 | .144 | .298 | 13 | 20 | 25% | 10% | 95 | +1.4 | .229/.316/.381 | .152 | .296 | 15 | 21 | 26% | 10% | 95 | +0.9 |