Paul Hoff — OGILVIE

Paul Hoff P DSL Brewers Gold

Age 19 RHP 6'5" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%21.0%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	8	5	30	125	21	18	2	62%	3.7	11.4%	18.0%	-6.6%	2.8%	3.64	5.94	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	8	5	30	125	21	18	2	62%	3.7	11.4%	18.0%	-6.6%	2.8%	3.64	5.94	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	8	5	30	125	21	18	2	62%	3.7	16.8%	14.4%	2.4%	1.6%	3.64	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	10	4	45	188	45	21	1	40%	4.5	16.3%	14.0%	2.3%	0.7%	2.01	3.90	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	10	4	45	188	45	21	1	40%	4.5	16.3%	14.0%	2.3%	0.7%	2.01	3.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	10	4	45	188	45	21	1	40%	4.5	23.9%	11.2%	12.8%	0.5%	2.01	2.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	44	0	46	194	42	24	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.6%	9.1%	2.9%	4.94	4.85	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	46	0	48	204	45	23	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.74	4.64	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	48	0	51	214	49	22	6	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.40	+0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	50	0	52	222	53	22	6	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.7%	14.1%	2.8%	4.35	4.23	+0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	51	0	54	227	55	21	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.3%	15.1%	2.8%	4.20	4.11	+0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	52	0	54	230	57	21	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	2.7%	4.10	4.03	+0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	52	0	54	230	58	21	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	2.7%	4.05	4.01	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	51	0	54	227	57	21	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	9.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.05	4.05	+0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	—	22	0	23	97	21	12	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.6%	9.1%	2.9%	4.94	4.85	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	33	0	35	148	33	17	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.74	4.64	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	41	0	43	182	42	19	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.40	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	45	0	47	198	47	19	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.7%	14.1%	2.8%	4.35	4.23	+0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	48	0	50	211	52	20	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.3%	15.1%	2.8%	4.20	4.11	+0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	49	0	51	215	53	19	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	2.7%	4.10	4.03	+0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	50	0	52	220	55	20	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	2.7%	4.05	4.01	+0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	49	0	51	215	54	19	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	9.0%	15.9%	2.8%	4.05	4.05	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		334	0	351	1481	356	145	41	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	2.8%	4.30	3.85	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	83	23	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	2.8%	4.30	3.85	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		18	9	74	313	45	49	5	50%	4.1	14.3%	15.6%	-1.2%	1.6%	2.66	4.72	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	24	200	842	121	131	13	50%	4.1	14.3%	15.6%	-1.2%	1.6%	2.66	4.72	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Hoff (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	21.0%	14.2%	3.0%	—	4.62	22.3%	10.9%	145	-0.53	—	—	—
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	85
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	83
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	82
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	82
Nolan Perry R 2023 · 4.58 FIP	19	SW	4.58	19.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.385	4.07	25.2%	10.2%	129	-0.51	3.62	167	81
Carlos Calderon R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	19	SW	4.49	23.6%	16.5%	2.4%	.328	5.44	16.2%	1.2%	197	+0.95	3.74	291	80
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	80
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	80
Alfredo Tavarez R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	19	SW	5.47	22.0%	13.3%	4.6%	.257	4.60	12.0%	-1.4%	110	-0.87	3.67	214	79
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	79
Jose Olivares R 2022 · 4.99 FIP	19	SW	4.99	18.4%	14.4%	2.9%	.276	4.78	18.6%	4.1%	222	-0.21	3.05	308	79
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	79
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	78
Andinson Ferrer R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	19	SW	4.72	17.4%	13.7%	2.5%	.287	4.64	21.7%	2.1%	34	-0.08	4.04	101	78
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	78
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	77
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	77
Jerming Rosario R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	19	SW	4.97	21.1%	10.5%	4.2%	.303	4.43	20.9%	5.7%	281	-0.54	3.05	505	76
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	75
Dante Mendoza R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SW	5.90	14.9%	14.1%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	113	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	48	23.7%	10.2%	1.09	4.38
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33