Yairo Padilla — OGILVIE

Yairo PadillaSS FCL Cardinals

Age 19 S/R 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK HR -7%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.6 · 2033

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .292 / .350

PA123

HR3

K%27

BB%8

MLB%4%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

25↗53

PWR

30↗54

SPD

50↗52

FLD

30↗47

EYE

45→45

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.0peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.2	$30M	+$29M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.5	$33M	+$33M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.6	$35M	+$34M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+3.6	$36M	+$29M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+3.5	$37M	+$24M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+3.3	$35M	+$18M
Totals		$40M		$207M	+$167M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	162	143	30	4	2	1	10	42	7	22	5	.210	.294	.287	.580	.077	.287	26	6	.250	50	-9	+2	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2025	18	ROK	FCL Cardinals	148	127	28	3	2	0	11	30	5	24	4	.220	.308	.276	.583	.055	.286	20	7	.256	54	-8	+3	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	STL	123	111	25	4	1	3	9	33	2	2	1	.225	.295	.360	.655	.135	.291	27	7	.291	81	-3	+0	-1	+1	+3	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 14%	STL	210	187	45	8	1	6	18	53	3	5	1	.241	.317	.390	.708	.150	.300	25	9	.314	98	-0	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.7
2028	21	MLB 31%	STL	341	303	74	13	2	10	30	84	5	8	2	.244	.322	.399	.722	.155	.301	25	9	.323	105	+2	+1	-2	+4	+10	1.4
2029	22	MLB 51%	STL	435	386	96	16	3	14	40	104	6	10	2	.249	.329	.415	.743	.166	.302	24	9	.331	111	+6	+1	-3	+5	+12	2.1
2030	23	MLB 73%	STL	498	441	111	19	3	17	47	117	7	11	2	.252	.333	.424	.757	.172	.302	23	9	.337	116	+9	+1	-3	+5	+14	2.7
2031	24	MLB 89%	STL	539	474	121	20	4	19	52	124	8	12	2	.255	.339	.435	.774	.179	.303	23	10	.341	119	+12	+2	-4	+6	+15	3.2
2032	25	MLB	STL	563	494	126	21	4	20	56	129	8	12	2	.255	.341	.435	.776	.180	.304	23	10	.345	122	+14	+2	-4	+6	+16	3.5
2033	26	MLB	STL	575	504	130	22	4	21	58	132	8	12	2	.258	.344	.442	.786	.185	.304	23	10	.346	123	+15	+2	-4	+6	+16	3.6
2034	27	MLB	STL	579	507	130	22	4	21	59	133	8	12	2	.256	.343	.440	.783	.183	.304	23	10	.346	123	+15	+2	-4	+6	+16	3.6
2035	28	MLB	STL	576	504	130	22	4	21	59	134	8	11	2	.258	.345	.442	.787	.185	.304	23	10	.345	122	+15	+1	-4	+6	+16	3.5
2036	29	MLB	STL	568	497	125	21	3	20	58	133	8	11	1	.252	.339	.427	.766	.175	.303	23	10	.343	121	+13	+2	-5	+6	+16	3.3
2037	30	MLB	STL	558	488	122	20	3	20	57	133	8	10	1	.250	.338	.426	.764	.176	.302	24	10	.340	119	+12	+2	-6	+6	+16	3.0
2038	31	MLB	STL	544	475	119	20	3	19	56	132	8	9	0	.251	.340	.425	.765	.175	.301	24	10	.337	116	+10	+2	-6	+6	+15	2.7
2039	32	MLB	STL	526	460	114	19	3	18	54	130	7	8	0	.248	.336	.420	.755	.172	.300	25	10	.332	112	+7	+2	-7	+6	+15	2.3
2040	33	MLB	STL	497	436	105	17	3	16	51	126	7	8	0	.241	.330	.404	.734	.163	.299	25	10	.327	108	+5	+2	-7	+5	+14	1.8
2041	34	MLB	STL	450	395	94	15	3	14	46	118	6	7	0	.238	.327	.397	.724	.159	.297	26	10	.320	103	+2	+1	-8	+5	+13	1.3
2042	35	MLB	STL	396	348	80	13	2	11	40	108	5	7	0	.230	.318	.374	.692	.144	.296	27	10	.312	97	-1	+1	-8	+4	+11	0.8
2043	36	MLB	STL	336	296	66	10	2	9	33	95	4	6	0	.223	.309	.361	.671	.139	.293	28	10	.303	90	-4	+1	-9	+4	+10	0.2
2044	37	MLB	STL	271	240	52	8	1	7	26	80	3	5	0	.217	.301	.346	.647	.129	.290	30	10	.293	83	-5	+1	-9	+3	+8	-0.3
2045	38	MLB	STL	202	179	38	6	1	5	19	61	2	3	0	.212	.295	.341	.636	.128	.285	30	9	.283	75	-6	+1	-9	+2	+6	-0.6
2046	39	MLB	STL	129	114	24	3	1	3	12	40	2	2	0	.211	.297	.333	.630	.123	.280	31	9	.272	66	-5	+0	-9	+1	+4	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9226	8109	1985	326	59	295	901	2271	135	217	29	.245	.330	.409	.739	.164	.302	25	10	.328	109	+95	+32	-113	+99	+261	38.1
/ 162G	—			650	571	140	23	4	21	63	160	10	15	2	.245	.330	.410	.740	.165	.303	25	10	.328	109	+7	+2	-8	+7	+18	2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	162	136	39	5	4	1	17	29	7	22	5	.287	.394	.404	.798	.118	.355	18	10	.359	133	+6	+2	—	—	+5	1.3
2025	18	ROK	FCL Cardinals	148	120	34	4	3	0	18	21	5	24	4	.283	.399	.367	.765	.083	.340	14	12	.342	120	+3	+3	—	—	+4	1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yairo Padilla (OGILVIE)	19	25→53	30→54	50→52	45	.223/.292/.350	.127	.291	3	2	27%	8%	81	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Aaron Hicks 2009 · A	19	48→56	42→60	54→55	47	.230/.289/.338	.108	.295	8	12	24%	8%	75	-0.0	.221/.296/.327	.106	.300	7	12	26%	10%	76	+0.0	.247/.358/.450	.204	.280	25	11	21%	14%	127	+2.4
✕Francisco Mejía 2015 · A	19	45→55	44→55	49→40	40	.221/.266/.338	.118	.283	11	8	26%	5%	66	-0.6	.237/.283/.343	.106	.289	10	4	21%	5%	74	-0.1	.258/.304/.423	.165	.305	16	1	21%	5%	101	+0.9
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	45→54	41→50	45→55	47	.219/.281/.317	.098	.274	8	11	23%	8%	66	-0.6	.241/.317/.373	.132	.280	15	17	19%	9%	97	+1.5	.233/.312/.369	.136	.267	17	23	19%	9%	90	+0.8
●Jurickson Profar 2012 · A	19	47→56	46→55	52→50	49	.229/.293/.374	.145	.263	10	13	18%	7%	86	+0.8	.234/.297/.369	.135	.275	12	12	19%	7%	86	+0.8	.257/.353/.419	.161	.284	18	7	16%	11%	121	+2.9
●Trevor Story 2012 · A	19	42→52	43→65	54→55	44	.209/.272/.318	.108	.282	10	12	29%	7%	63	-0.8	.193/.253/.326	.133	.287	13	12	36%	7%	57	-1.2	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
✕Abraham Almonte 2008 · A	19	42→52	43→55	50→55	50	.207/.281/.314	.108	.268	10	19	26%	9%	66	-0.6	.206/.254/.302	.096	.271	7	19	26%	6%	50	-1.7	.232/.330/.424	.192	.279	22	11	24%	12%	111	+1.5
●Edgar Quero 2022 · A	19	44→54	43→50	48→40	45	.202/.300/.317	.115	.331	10	6	38%	10%	76	+0.1	.235/.325/.382	.147	.300	16	5	25%	10%	103	+1.9	.239/.326/.387	.148	.293	17	4	23%	9%	102	+1.4
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	44→52	49→65	49→45	45	.226/.283/.369	.143	.276	17	6	25%	7%	81	+0.4	.250/.300/.421	.171	.300	23	7	24%	6%	102	+1.8	.258/.305/.479	.221	.284	33	5	22%	6%	116	+2.6
●Jeimer Candelario 2013 · A	19	50→55	40→60	44→45	52	.240/.311/.338	.098	.300	7	5	22%	9%	85	+0.7	.211/.268/.326	.115	.261	10	2	22%	7%	63	-0.8	.247/.323/.429	.182	.296	19	3	22%	9%	111	+2.3
●Willy Adames 2015 · A	19	48→53	41→60	47→50	46	.224/.293/.338	.114	.316	6	6	29%	8%	76	+0.1	.224/.290/.335	.111	.332	7	8	32%	8%	75	-0.0	.263/.332/.462	.199	.341	24	5	28%	9%	122	+2.4
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→48	42→50	49→45	46	.222/.285/.324	.103	.281	10	12	24%	7%	70	-0.3	.230/.313/.368	.138	.279	13	9	21%	10%	94	+1.3	.226/.311/.371	.145	.266	15	9	20%	10%	91	+1.0
●Francisco Lindor 2013 · A	19	48→58	38→65	49→55	48	.227/.287/.310	.083	.272	5	14	18%	6%	66	-0.6	.253/.303/.349	.096	.302	7	18	18%	6%	83	+0.6	.273/.338/.509	.236	.276	30	18	14%	8%	131	+4.6
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	46→50	46→40	47	.216/.283/.346	.130	.273	14	5	26%	8%	75	-0.0	.241/.299/.377	.136	.292	16	4	22%	7%	90	+1.0	.259/.317/.396	.137	.305	16	3	20%	7%	100	+1.5
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	.231/.283/.361	.130	.288	14	9	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.250/.299/.420	.170	.314	19	7	26%	6%	101	+1.8	.291/.353/.484	.193	.337	22	4	20%	8%	135	+4.6
✕Bryan Rincon 2023 · A	19	43→42	45→40	53→65	45	.213/.281/.336	.123	.279	13	11	28%	8%	72	-0.2	.194/.288/.298	.104	.270	9	21	29%	10%	66	-0.6	.165/.260/.259	.093	.238	9	30	32%	10%	44	-1.1
★Austin Meadows 2014 · A	19	45→55	43→65	49→55	43	.214/.282/.336	.122	.308	10	6	32%	8%	72	-0.2	.242/.292/.362	.120	.310	9	10	24%	6%	82	+0.5	.255/.336/.495	.240	.289	30	8	23%	10%	129	+2.7
★Manny Machado 2012 · A	20	43→53	44→65	48→50	44	.217/.266/.340	.124	.267	11	10	24%	6%	66	-0.6	.250/.295/.396	.146	.294	13	8	19%	6%	92	+1.2	.280/.340/.502	.222	.295	29	7	16%	8%	128	+4.3
●Gleyber Torres 2017 · A	20	48→54	41→60	47→50	43	.230/.287/.330	.100	.315	7	13	28%	7%	72	-0.2	.252/.314/.415	.163	.319	19	11	26%	8%	106	+2.2	.258/.343/.395	.138	.293	16	6	17%	11%	111	+2.7
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	45→60	43→30	45	.215/.274/.337	.122	.275	14	3	27%	7%	69	-0.4	.206/.251/.346	.140	.279	17	2	32%	5%	62	-0.9	.246/.306/.451	.204	.321	28	0	31%	7%	109	+2.0
●Luis Robert Jr. 2018 · A	20	48→58	43→60	52→60	46	.224/.316/.343	.119	.317	10	15	30%	9%	89	+1.0	.228/.285/.372	.144	.324	14	22	33%	5%	83	+0.6	.284/.330/.497	.213	.339	28	17	24%	5%	131	+2.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)