Yairo Padilla
SS Palm Beach Cardinals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKSTL | 162 | .287/.394/.404 | 1 | 22 | 47 | — | .184/.281/.234 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKSTL | 148 | .283/.399/.367 | 0 | 24 | 64 | — | .228/.315/.283 |
| 2026 | 19 | A+/ASTL | 144 | .266/.343/.461 | 4 | 10 | 87 | — | .233/.287/.391 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBSTL | 254 | .226/.290/.348 | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBSTL | 49 | .231/.297/.362 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBSTL | 116 | .235/.301/.375 | 3 | 3 | 91 | 0.2 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 136 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 287 | 394 | 404 | 798 | 118 | 355 | 18 | 10 | 359 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 148 | 120 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 21 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 283 | 399 | 367 | 765 | 83 | 340 | 14 | 12 | 342 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 357 | 607 | 214 | 125 | 31 | 12 | 274 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 128 | 114 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 281 | 354 | 474 | 828 | 193 | 333 | 19 | 10 | 362 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 141 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 184 | 281 | 234 | 515 | 50 | 237 | 22 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 148 | 127 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 228 | 315 | 283 | 598 | 55 | 280 | 20 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 333 | 521 | 200 | 118 | 38 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 128 | 118 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 246 | 299 | 398 | 698 | 153 | 324 | 26 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 141 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 184 | 281 | 234 | 515 | 50 | 245 | 22 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 136 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 287 | 394 | 404 | 798 | 118 | 355 | 18 | 10 | 359 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 148 | 127 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 228 | 315 | 283 | 598 | 55 | 296 | 20 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 148 | 120 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 21 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 283 | 399 | 367 | 765 | 83 | 340 | 14 | 12 | 342 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 144 | 132 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 235 | 294 | 394 | 688 | 159 | 311 | 27 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 144 | 128 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 266 | 343 | 461 | 804 | 195 | 316 | 20 | 10 | 353 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 142 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 183 | 281 | 232 | 514 | 49 | 237 | 22 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 148 | 131 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 221 | 315 | 275 | 589 | 53 | 280 | 20 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 144 | 132 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 235 | 294 | 394 | 688 | 159 | 301 | 27 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 162 | 142 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 183 | 281 | 232 | 514 | 49 | 237 | 22 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 148 | 131 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 221 | 315 | 275 | 589 | 53 | 280 | 20 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 144 | 132 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 235 | 294 | 394 | 688 | 159 | 301 | 27 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 254 | 231 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 64 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 226 | 290 | 348 | 638 | 122 | 289 | 25 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | STL | 34% | 144 | 130 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 297 | 366 | 662 | 135 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | STL | 48% | 239 | 216 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 301 | 380 | 681 | 144 | 291 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 91 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 333 | 301 | 72 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 81 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 238 | 305 | 390 | 695 | 151 | 292 | 24 | 8 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 55% | 397 | 360 | 86 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 95 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 241 | 308 | 397 | 705 | 157 | 293 | 24 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 56% | 434 | 393 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 104 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 242 | 309 | 402 | 711 | 160 | 294 | 24 | 8 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 56% | 452 | 409 | 99 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 108 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 242 | 310 | 404 | 714 | 162 | 293 | 24 | 8 | 317 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 1.6 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 55% | 459 | 416 | 101 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 110 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 241 | 309 | 402 | 711 | 161 | 293 | 24 | 8 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 1.6 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 55% | 458 | 415 | 100 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 35 | 111 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 240 | 307 | 398 | 705 | 158 | 292 | 24 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 448 | 406 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 110 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 237 | 304 | 392 | 696 | 154 | 291 | 25 | 8 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 57% | 438 | 398 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 109 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 235 | 301 | 384 | 685 | 150 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 305 | 92 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | STL | 60% | 422 | 383 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 107 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 231 | 296 | 375 | 671 | 144 | 287 | 25 | 8 | 299 | 89 | -6 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | STL | 61% | 399 | 363 | 82 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 103 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 226 | 290 | 363 | 653 | 137 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -8 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB MLE | STL | 62% | 364 | 332 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 96 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 220 | 283 | 348 | 632 | 129 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -10 | -3 | -4 | +4 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | STL | 34% | 49 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 297 | 362 | 659 | 131 | 292 | 24 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | STL | 48% | 116 | 105 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 301 | 375 | 677 | 140 | 293 | 24 | 8 | 302 | 91 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 181 | 163 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 305 | 385 | 690 | 147 | 294 | 24 | 8 | 307 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 55% | 220 | 199 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 53 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 240 | 307 | 392 | 699 | 152 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 311 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 56% | 243 | 219 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 58 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 242 | 309 | 396 | 705 | 155 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 313 | 100 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 56% | 254 | 229 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 242 | 309 | 399 | 708 | 157 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 314 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 55% | 254 | 229 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 241 | 308 | 396 | 705 | 155 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 313 | 99 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 55% | 251 | 227 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 239 | 307 | 392 | 699 | 153 | 294 | 24 | 8 | 311 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 239 | 217 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 59 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 304 | 386 | 690 | 149 | 293 | 25 | 8 | 307 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 57% | 250 | 227 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 301 | 379 | 680 | 145 | 292 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 92 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | STL | 60% | 251 | 228 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 231 | 296 | 370 | 666 | 140 | 289 | 25 | 8 | 297 | 89 | -3 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | STL | 61% | 245 | 223 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 226 | 290 | 359 | 649 | 133 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 84 | -5 | -1 | -2 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB CTX | STL | 62% | 227 | 207 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 219 | 283 | 344 | 627 | 125 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 281 | 78 | -6 | -2 | -3 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2780 | 2517 | 594 | 109 | 21 | 73 | 212 | 685 | 28 | 49 | 21 | 236 | 303 | 383 | 685 | 147 | 294 | 25 | 8 | 304 | 91 | -22 | +1 | -10 | +30 | +60 | 6.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 138 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 50 | 160 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 234 | 303 | 380 | 683 | 146 | 292 | 25 | 8 | 304 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5526 | 5000 | 1168 | 202 | 45 | 145 | 416 | 1355 | 66 | 146 | 57 | 234 | 301 | 379 | 680 | 145 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 91 | -41 | +1 | -18 | +54 | +110 | 10.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 137 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 49 | 159 | 8 | 17 | 7 | 233 | 301 | 378 | 678 | 145 | 289 | 24 | 8 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 128 PAwOBA .353 → .307 (−46)K% 18.8% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 20.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 9.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 2.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .353 → .307; ISO .193 → .165; BABIP .333 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 16 PAwOBA .266 → .208 (−59)K% 31.2% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 39.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 9.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 10.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 9.33% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .266 → .208; ISO .214 → .163; BABIP .125 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Cardinals · 148 PAwOBA .337 → .263 (−73)K% 14.2% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.19% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.16% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.38% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.030 | ×0.820 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 22.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 2.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .337 → .263; ISO .083 → .065; BABIP .340 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Cardinals · 162 PAwOBA .353 → .237 (−116)K% 17.9% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.90% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.32% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.10% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 18.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.67% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 2.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.74% | ÷1.132 | ×0.600 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 2.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.307 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.34% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 161, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 126, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .353 → .237; ISO .118 → .064; BABIP .355 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).