Modesto Vargas
P
ACL D-backs
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%22.5%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 14 | 0 | 14 | 86 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.1% | 37.8% | -26.7% | 0.0% | 10.93 | 6.95 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 14 | 0 | 14 | 86 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 30.2% | -14.0% | 0.0% | 10.93 | 6.67 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 17 | 4 | 19 | 98 | 19 | 29 | 0 | 24% | 1.1 | 13.2% | 37.0% | -23.8% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 6.67 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 17 | 4 | 19 | 98 | 19 | 29 | 0 | 24% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 29.6% | -10.2% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 5.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 14 | 1 | 19 | 102 | 19 | 26 | 0 | 7% | 1.3 | 12.7% | 31.9% | -19.2% | 0.0% | 6.27 | 6.07 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.66 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 29 | 145 | 29 | 31 | 1 | — | — | 19.8% | 21.4% | -1.6% | 0.9% | 5.70 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.01 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 5 | 51 | 286 | 35 | 101 | 0 | 11% | 1.1 | 12.4% | 35.4% | -23.0% | 0.0% | 6.66 | 6.54 | -1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 19 | 200 | 1114 | 138 | 394 | 0 | 11% | 1.1 | 12.4% | 35.4% | -23.0% | 0.0% | 6.66 | 6.54 | -2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Modesto Vargas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.39 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 20 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 88 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 86 |
| Nic Enright R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.12 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.51 | 0.50 | 249 | 85 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.27 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | +0.03 | 5.04 | 162 | 85 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.48 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.81 | 3.24 | 288 | 85 |
| Justin Meis R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.80 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.31 | 3.80 | 385 | 84 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 84 |
| Nolan Sparks R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.06 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 2.0% | .229 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 3.7% | 120 | +0.81 | 4.06 | 136 | 84 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 84 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 84 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 84 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 83 |
| Cole Gordon R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 83 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 83 |
| Alexis Liebano R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 12.6% | 4.1% | .330 | 6.24 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 77 | +1.19 | 4.80 | 142 | 83 |
| Kyle Hinton R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.17 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.66 | 17.7% | -0.7% | 75 | +1.49 | 4.17 | 106 | 83 |
| Max Gieg R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.43 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 4.8% | .317 | 4.70 | 20.4% | 2.3% | 92 | -0.73 | 4.10 | 146 | 82 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 82 |
| Reiss Knehr R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .267 | 5.07 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 171 | +0.83 | 3.37 | 395 | 82 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.02 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.65 | 3.50 | 152 | 82 |