Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 14 | 0 | 19 | 98 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 9.7% | 25.5% | -15.8% | 2.9% | 10.12 | 7.08 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 14 | 0 | 19 | 98 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.3% | 20.4% | -6.1% | 2.0% | 10.12 | 6.21 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cardinals Blue | 23 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 44 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.2% | 17.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.89 | 4.70 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cardinals Blue | 23 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 44 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.2% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 1.3% | 2.89 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.6% | 23.5% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 3.50 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.6% | 23.5% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 3.63 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 41 | 0 | 46 | 227 | 64 | 54 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 27.4% | -5.6% | 2.4% | 6.22 | 6.07 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 41 | 0 | 46 | 227 | 64 | 54 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 23.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 6.22 | 5.24 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 50 | 231 | 77 | 38 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.3% | 17.0% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 5.72 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 50 | 231 | 77 | 38 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.3% | 16.5% | 16.9% | 2.2% | 5.72 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 11 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 34.8% | 11.0% | 23.9% | 3.8% | 3.10 | 3.61 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 11 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 45.2% | 9.5% | 35.7% | 3.6% | 3.10 | 2.46 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 47 | 0 | 65 | 308 | 71 | 44 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.7% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 4.27 | 4.36 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 47 | 0 | 65 | 308 | 71 | 44 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 4.27 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 4 | 46 | 221 | 50 | 36 | 4 | 14% | 1.7 | 19.0% | 17.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 6.02 | 4.94 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 4 | 46 | 221 | 50 | 36 | 4 | 14% | 1.7 | 22.6% | 16.3% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 6.02 | 4.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | STL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 26 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 120 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 13.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 13.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 13.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.59 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 112 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 13.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 211 | 4 | 300 | 1410 | 306 | 270 | 29 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 19.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 5.29 | 4.82 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 3 | 200 | 941 | 205 | 180 | 19 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 19.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 5.29 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Leonardo Taveras (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.97 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 28 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 90 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 87 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 87 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 84 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 83 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 83 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 83 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 82 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.20 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.12 | 3.03 | 140 | 82 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 82 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 252 | 82 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 82 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 82 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.87 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.03 | 1.61 | 124 | 82 |
| Erik Davis R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.2% | .363 | 3.59 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 181 | -0.37 | 3.07 | 227 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 20.9% | 13.8% | 1.06 | 4.95 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |