Jean Robles

P FCL Nationals

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKWSH	12	11	42	5.31	3.74	23.6%	13.6%	—	K 16.0% · BB 17.0% · FIP 4.83
2026	19	ROKWSH	9	5	24	5.62	5.93	19.6%	17.9%	—	K 13.4% · BB 22.3% · FIP 7.54
2027PROJ	20	MLBWSH	26	0	27	6.38	6.38	15.3%	20.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBWSH	19	0	20	6.00	5.88	16.8%	17.4%	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsReynardo Cruz (age 20) · Mason McGwire (age 20) · Kamdyn Perry (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA6.38

FIP6.38

K%15.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-4.7%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	125	30	14	1	0%	2.0	16.3%	14.0%	2.3%	0.9%	3.95	4.00	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	125	30	14	1	0%	2.0	16.3%	14.0%	2.3%	0.9%	3.95	4.00	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	125	30	14	1	0%	2.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	0.8%	3.95	2.92	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	11	42	191	45	26	3	92%	3.5	16.0%	17.0%	-1.0%	1.7%	5.31	4.83	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	11	42	191	45	26	3	92%	3.5	16.0%	17.0%	-1.0%	1.7%	5.31	4.83	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	12	11	42	191	45	26	3	92%	3.5	23.6%	13.6%	9.9%	1.6%	5.31	3.74	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	9	5	24	112	22	20	4	56%	2.7	13.4%	22.3%	-9.0%	5.0%	5.62	7.54	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	9	5	24	112	22	20	4	56%	2.7	13.4%	22.3%	-9.0%	5.0%	5.62	7.54	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	9	5	24	112	22	20	4	56%	2.7	19.6%	17.9%	1.8%	3.6%	5.62	5.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	WSH	26	0	27	114	17	23	3	0%	1.0	15.3%	20.0%	-4.7%	3.0%	6.38	6.38	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	WSH	38	0	40	169	28	29	5	0%	1.1	16.8%	17.4%	-0.6%	3.0%	6.00	5.88	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	WSH	19	0	20	84	14	15	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	17.4%	-0.6%	3.0%	6.00	5.88	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	83	14	14	2	0%	1.0	16.8%	17.4%	-0.6%	3.0%	6.00	5.50	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	142	20	0%	1.1	16.8%	17.4%	-0.6%	3.0%	6.00	5.50	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		35	16	94	428	66	75	10	46%	2.7	15.4%	17.5%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.00	5.30	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	34	200	914	141	160	21	46%	2.7	15.4%	17.5%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.00	5.30	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jean Robles (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.38	15.3%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.88	16.8%	-0.6%	40	-0.50	—	—	—
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	89
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	88
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	86
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	86
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	86
Jesus Tillero R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	18	SP-	5.94	13.3%	18.0%	3.1%	.274	5.23	14.8%	3.8%	129	-0.71	2.26	180	85
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	85
Jatnk Diaz R 2024 · 7.33 FIP	19	SP-	7.33	12.1%	24.0%	4.0%	.318	5.06	13.9%	-0.8%	102	-2.27	4.97	117	84
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	84
Manuel Perez R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	18	SW	5.41	13.7%	19.8%	1.7%	.319	4.93	13.6%	1.4%	78	-0.48	3.40	188	84
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	83
Bryan Sanchez R 2023 · 6.58 FIP	20	SP-	6.58	15.7%	19.3%	4.3%	.296	5.63	14.6%	-3.0%	65	-0.95	2.99	142	83
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	83
Felipito Santos R 2019 · 7.57 FIP	20	SP-	7.57	4.3%	25.3%	3.0%	.358	5.32	13.7%	-5.9%	58	-2.25	4.83	106	83
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	82
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	82
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	82
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	81
Abraham Parra R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	18	SP-	5.40	14.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.376	4.82	15.3%	1.3%	181	-0.58	4.16	243	81
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	16.2%	18.4%	1.15	6.15
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*