Jatnk Diaz
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2029
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.2%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2029
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 7 | 4 | 14 | 73 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 12.1% | 24.0% | 4.1% | 10.67 | 7.39 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 17 | 14 | 64 | 271 | 57 | 29 | 5 | 14.6% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | DET | — | — | 52 | 225 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | DET | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | DET | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 51 | 20 | 6 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 54 | 20 | 6 | 24.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | DET | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | DET | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | DET | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | DET | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 53 | 19 | 6 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | DET | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 49 | 18 | 6 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | DET | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | DET | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | DET | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 18 | 86 | 381 | 53 | 55 | 12 | 14.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 5.65 | 5.44 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 42 | 200 | 886 | 123 | 128 | 28 | 14.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 5.65 | 5.44 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jatnk Diaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 154 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 93 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 92 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 91 |
| Austin Mason R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.06 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 3.60 | 179 | 90 |
| Wellington Diaz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.85 | 16.4% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .315 | 5.79 | 20.0% | 2.8% | 59 | +0.94 | 3.29 | 172 | 90 |
| Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 4.01 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.62 | 3.80 | 155 | 90 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 89 |
| Luke Stofel R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.27 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.31 | 12.8% | 0.9% | 97 | +0.04 | 4.27 | 139 | 89 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 89 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.80 | 2.36 | 173 | 88 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.90 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 5.68 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +0.78 | 4.10 | 109 | 88 |
| Juan Mendez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.08 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.58 | 3.73 | 156 | 88 |
| Hayden Snelsire R 2028 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .272 | 3.84 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 79 | -1.31 | 3.84 | 122 | 88 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.18 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | -0.06 | 4.91 | 162 | 88 |
| Audry Lugo R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.05 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .247 | 5.31 | 15.6% | -0.4% | 77 | +1.26 | 4.05 | 113 | 88 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 88 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.89 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.70 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.81 | 4.13 | 147 | 88 |
| Jason García R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.56 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.38 | 13.2% | 1.2% | 218 | -0.18 | 4.16 | 356 | 88 |
| TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 4.99 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.09 | 3.35 | 394 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $12M | +$8M | ||