Jatnk Diaz — OGILVIE

Jatnk Diaz P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%13.6%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	3	12	2	2	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.80	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	3	12	2	2	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.80	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	3	12	2	2	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	7	4	14	73	13	14	2	57%	2.0	12.1%	24.0%	-11.9%	4.0%	10.67	7.33	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	7	4	14	73	13	14	2	57%	2.0	12.1%	24.0%	-11.9%	4.0%	10.67	7.33	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	7	4	14	73	13	14	2	57%	2.0	17.8%	19.2%	-1.4%	2.7%	10.67	6.03	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	64	271	57	29	5	82%	3.8	14.6%	13.1%	1.5%	2.9%	4.36	5.12	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	64	271	57	29	5	82%	3.8	14.6%	13.1%	1.5%	2.9%	4.36	5.12	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	64	271	57	29	5	82%	3.8	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	1.8%	4.36	3.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	0	38	196	34	28	2	0%	1.7	12.6%	17.2%	-4.6%	1.4%	7.75	4.97	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	0	38	196	34	28	2	0%	1.7	12.6%	17.2%	-4.6%	1.4%	7.75	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	DET	7	0	12	52	8	9	1	0%	1.7	15.4%	17.3%	-1.9%	1.9%	4.50	5.05	—
2026	21	A RAW	DET	16	0	26	144	26	19	1	0%	1.6	18.1%	13.2%	4.9%	0.7%	9.23	3.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	58	0	60	255	41	35	7	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.8%	2.3%	2.9%	5.60	5.48	-0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	60	0	63	265	47	34	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.7%	5.0%	2.9%	5.32	5.19	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	29	0	30	127	20	18	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.8%	2.3%	2.9%	5.60	5.48	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	44	0	46	194	34	25	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.7%	5.0%	2.9%	5.32	5.19	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	0	76	319	54	42	9	0%	1.0	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.43	4.92	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	111	24	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.43	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		49	18	120	552	75	89	14	37%	2.4	13.6%	16.1%	-2.5%	2.4%	6.09	5.33	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	30	200	923	125	148	23	37%	2.4	13.6%	16.1%	-2.5%	2.4%	6.09	5.33	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jatnk Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	13.6%	15.6%	3.0%	—	5.33	16.9%	3.6%	123	-0.62	—	—	—
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	86
Joe Barlow R 2016 · 6.15 FIP	20	SW	6.15	13.6%	16.4%	3.9%	.269	3.72	29.5%	10.7%	116	-2.43	2.99	354	84
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	84
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Willians Vasquez R 2018 · 5.45 FIP	21	SU	5.45	12.2%	13.9%	3.0%	.292	3.20	13.9%	3.9%	30	-2.25	3.20	154	84
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	84
Geison Urbaez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	14.1%	18.2%	1.5%	.322	4.71	15.5%	4.7%	112	-0.32	4.04	241	83
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	83
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	83
Pedro González R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	21	SW	5.23	13.9%	16.0%	2.3%	.321	4.26	11.0%	3.4%	109	-0.97	4.06	285	82
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	82
David Landeta R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	20	SU	5.04	14.5%	15.3%	2.2%	.353	3.86	16.8%	-0.4%	64	-1.18	3.64	111	82
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	82
Johsson Arias R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	8.5%	17.1%	1.6%	.244	3.64	15.9%	4.4%	77	-1.79	3.46	117	81
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	81
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	81
Ezequiel Ventura R 2023 · 5.62 FIP	21	SW	5.62	13.5%	11.7%	4.0%	.302	4.71	14.1%	5.7%	32	-0.91	3.77	151	81
Fabricio Reina R 2021 · 6.88 FIP	21	SW	6.88	12.6%	27.2%	2.5%	.224	5.16	17.4%	-2.0%	28	-1.72	3.76	191	81
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	81
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	16.1%	13.9%	1.14	5.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41