Xavier Lopez

P FCL Rays

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	7	7	20	5.75	2.80	22.0%	7.7%	—	K 14.9% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.92
2025	20	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	2.06	3.20	24.3%	8.6%	—	K 16.6% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.65
2026	21	MIX2 levels	15	9	60	5.13	4.14	15.0%	12.8%	—	K 10.4% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	22	MLBTB	6	6	33	5.31	5.31	16.7%	13.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTB	5	5	27	5.01	4.90	18.8%	11.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBTB	7	7	40	4.78	4.67	20.0%	10.7%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRyan Atkinson (age 23) · Ryan Harvey (age 22) · Rubén Menes (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%16.7%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%3.7%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	7	7	20	91	20	7	1	100%	2.9	14.9%	9.6%	5.3%	1.6%	5.75	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	7	7	20	91	20	7	1	100%	2.9	14.9%	9.6%	5.3%	1.6%	5.75	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	7	7	20	91	20	7	1	100%	2.9	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	1.1%	5.75	2.80	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	152	37	13	3	100%	3.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.9%	2.06	4.65	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	152	37	13	3	100%	3.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.9%	2.06	4.65	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	152	37	13	3	100%	3.9	24.3%	8.6%	15.8%	2.0%	2.06	3.20	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	60	274	41	35	3	60%	4.0	10.4%	14.6%	-4.3%	1.6%	5.13	4.98	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	60	274	41	35	3	60%	4.0	10.4%	14.6%	-4.3%	1.6%	5.13	4.98	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	60	274	41	35	3	60%	4.0	15.0%	12.8%	2.2%	1.1%	5.13	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	6	6	33	139	23	18	4	100%	5.5	16.7%	13.0%	3.7%	2.9%	5.31	5.31	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	56	235	44	27	7	100%	5.6	18.8%	11.6%	7.2%	2.9%	5.05	4.94	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	57	241	48	26	7	100%	5.7	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	2.8%	4.82	4.71	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	58	244	50	25	7	100%	5.8	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.66	4.57	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	58	244	51	24	7	100%	5.8	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	2.8%	4.58	4.54	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	57	240	50	24	7	100%	6.3	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	27	114	21	13	3	100%	5.4	18.8%	11.6%	7.2%	2.8%	5.01	4.90	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	40	169	34	18	5	100%	5.7	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	2.8%	4.78	4.67	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	47	198	41	20	5	100%	5.9	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.62	4.53	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	51	215	45	22	6	100%	6.4	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	51	215	45	22	6	100%	6.4	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	2.8%	4.54	4.54	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	216	912	187	95	25	100%	5.8	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	2.8%	4.66	4.21	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	173	88	23	100%	5.8	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	2.8%	4.66	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		32	26	119	517	67	65	10	81%	3.7	13.0%	12.6%	0.4%	2.0%	4.22	4.70	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	44	200	866	113	109	17	81%	3.7	13.0%	12.6%	0.4%	2.0%	4.22	4.70	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	16.7%	13.0%	2.9%	—	4.74	19.8%	9.1%	171	-0.57	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	89
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	87
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	85
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	84
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.5%	7.8%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	82
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	82
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	82
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	82
Justin Germano R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP-	4.49	14.7%	12.8%	1.8%	.377	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	133	-0.37	3.73	405	82
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	81
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	81
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	53	19.9%	10.8%	1.11	4.80
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*