Fabian Soto — OGILVIE

Fabian Soto P DSL Angels

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%22.4%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	11	42	194	43	37	1	100%	3.8	15.1%	23.8%	-8.8%	0.7%	3.24	5.22	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	11	11	42	194	43	37	1	100%	3.8	15.1%	23.8%	-8.8%	0.7%	3.24	5.22	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	11	11	42	194	43	37	1	100%	3.8	22.2%	19.1%	3.1%	0.5%	3.24	4.01	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	2	2	2	13	4	4	0	100%	1.0	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	4.40	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	2	2	2	13	4	4	0	100%	1.0	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	4.40	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	2	2	2	13	4	4	0	100%	1.0	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAA	5	5	25	106	24	16	3	100%	5.0	22.4%	15.1%	7.3%	3.0%	5.13	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	5	5	26	110	26	14	3	100%	5.2	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.76	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	13	55	13	7	2	100%	6.5	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	13	54	13	7	2	100%	4.3	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	203	110	31	100%	5.1	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.87	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		13	13	44	207	33	50	1	100%	3.4	16.1%	24.3%	-8.2%	0.6%	3.92	5.17	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	60	200	948	152	230	6	100%	3.4	16.1%	24.3%	-8.2%	0.6%	3.92	5.17	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fabian Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	22.4%	15.1%	3.0%	—	4.76	23.4%	10.4%	26	-0.37	—	—	—
Trevor Bauer R 2012 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP	4.79	22.1%	16.9%	2.6%	.267	4.08	21.8%	11.8%	346	-0.71	2.16	1,298	86
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	83
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	80
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	80
Blake Whitney R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	22	SP	4.11	19.1%	16.1%	1.1%	.338	6.22	25.6%	13.5%	33	+2.11	3.46	268	80
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	79
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	202	79
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	79
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.82	438	79
Shawn Hill R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.7%	2.0%	.450	3.70	14.5%	8.6%	134	-0.56	2.96	239	78
Elvis Luciano R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	17.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	204	78
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	78
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	78
Regi Grace R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	21	SP	4.76	19.6%	10.7%	3.5%	.227	3.99	19.6%	8.5%	173	-0.77	3.44	224	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	23.0%	14.1%	1.14	5.00
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27