Carson Myers — OGILVIE

Carson Myers P Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 213 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%21.7%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	0	11	54	13	9	0	0%	1.1	17.8%	19.7%	-1.9%	0.0%	3.18	4.09	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	0	11	54	13	9	0	0%	1.1	17.8%	19.7%	-1.9%	0.0%	3.18	4.09	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	10	0	11	54	13	9	0	0%	1.1	24.1%	16.7%	7.4%	0.0%	3.18	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	38	0	72	307	90	34	10	0%	1.9	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	4.1%	3.27	5.09	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	38	0	72	307	90	34	10	0%	1.9	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	4.1%	3.27	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TOR	11	0	21	90	30	9	1	0%	1.9	33.3%	10.0%	23.3%	1.1%	3.48	2.16	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	27	0	51	217	60	25	9	0%	1.9	27.6%	11.5%	16.1%	4.1%	3.18	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	69	0	72	304	68	39	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.0%	9.5%	2.9%	4.90	4.81	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	69	0	73	308	70	36	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.62	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	69	0	73	308	71	36	9	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.64	4.59	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	68	0	72	303	70	35	9	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	66	0	70	294	68	35	9	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.70	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	63	0	66	281	64	34	9	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	60	0	62	264	59	33	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.91	5.01	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	30	0	31	131	29	17	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.0%	9.5%	2.9%	4.90	4.81	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	46	0	48	203	46	24	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.62	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	57	28	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.64	4.59	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	58	0	61	258	60	30	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	59	0	62	262	60	31	8	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.67	4.70	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	57	0	60	253	58	30	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	55	30	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.91	5.01	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		360	0	378	1598	365	191	49	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.36	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	101	26	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		48	0	83	361	78	50	13	0%	1.7	21.6%	13.8%	7.8%	3.5%	3.25	4.94	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	0	200	870	188	120	30	0%	1.7	21.6%	13.8%	7.8%	3.5%	3.25	4.94	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Myers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	21.7%	14.8%	2.9%	—	4.67	22.8%	10.7%	218	-0.44	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	91
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	86
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	83
Andrew Tomasovich L 2017 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.04	20.3%	6.9%	52	+0.05	3.87	126	83
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	82
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	82
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	82
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	81
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	81
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	81
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	81
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	80
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	79
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	79
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	79
Fraser Ellard L 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	19.2%	14.6%	1.7%	.367	3.64	23.1%	10.5%	141	-0.64	2.91	199	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	62	22.8%	12.1%	1.17	4.75
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41