Fraser Ellard
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.49
xFIP5.16
SIERA5.88
K%26.0%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%12.2%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2020
CMD4040
K†6565
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p9034.1%
K%
p9029.7%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
SL+1.3 (27%)
SI (15%)
CH (7%)
FB (67%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 14 | 0 | 20 | 98 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 19.2% | 14.6% | 1.7% | 4.43 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 47 | 0 | 57 | 252 | 58 | 35 | 2 | 18.5% | 15.5% | 1.0% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 21 | 0 | 21 | 102 | 30 | 12 | 0 | 23.3% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 7.17 | 2.91 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 63 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 85 | 29 | 7 | 28.1% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.52 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 41 | 3 | 42 | 195 | 56 | 36 | 5 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 5.57 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 45 | 26 | 5 | 27.2% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 43 | 25 | 5 | 26.4% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 40 | 23 | 5 | 25.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 38 | 22 | 4 | 24.9% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 35 | 21 | 4 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 33 | 21 | 4 | 23.6% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 30 | 20 | 4 | 22.9% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 19 | 4 | 22.1% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 186 | 3 | 205 | 924 | 219 | 134 | 16 | 23.7% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 4.65 | 3.88 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 3 | 200 | 901 | 214 | 131 | 16 | 23.7% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 4.65 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fraser Ellard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 27.2% | 15.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.79 | 25.6% | 10.7% | 111 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 84 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 77 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 74 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 73 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 70 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 70 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 69 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.08 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.04 | 3.16 | 205 | 69 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 69 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 69 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 4.0% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 280 | 68 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 68 |
| Adam Loewen L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 67 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 67 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 66 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.18 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 4.5% | .357 | 3.82 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 92 | -1.36 | 2.15 | 310 | 66 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.80 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 3.9% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 118 | 65 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.65 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 203 | 65 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.