Fraser Ellard — OGILVIE

Fraser Ellard P Charlotte Knights

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.67

FIP4.78

K%27.1%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p9034.1%

p9029.7%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

SL+1.3 (27%)

SI (15%)

CH (7%)

FB (67%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	98	27	10	1	0%	1.5	19.2%	14.6%	4.6%	1.7%	4.43	4.28	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	20	98	27	10	1	0%	1.5	27.6%	10.2%	17.3%	1.0%	4.43	2.56	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	57	252	58	35	2	0%	1.2	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	1.0%	4.13	4.07	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	57	252	58	35	2	0%	1.2	23.0%	13.9%	9.1%	0.8%	4.13	3.36	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	21	102	30	12	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	14.0%	9.2%	0.0%	7.17	2.91	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	21	102	30	12	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	14.0%	9.2%	0.0%	7.17	2.91	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	21	102	30	12	0	0%	1.0	29.4%	11.8%	17.6%	0.0%	7.17	1.98	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	65	277	85	29	7	0%	1.0	27.1%	9.7%	17.3%	2.6%	3.76	3.49	+0.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	65	277	85	29	7	0%	1.0	27.1%	9.7%	17.3%	2.6%	3.76	3.49	+0.8
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	65	277	85	29	7	0%	1.0	30.7%	10.5%	20.2%	2.5%	3.76	3.22	+1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	42	195	56	36	5	7%	1.0	25.8%	17.6%	8.2%	2.2%	5.57	4.37	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	42	195	56	36	5	7%	1.0	25.8%	17.6%	8.2%	2.2%	5.57	4.37	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	3	42	195	56	36	5	7%	1.0	28.7%	18.5%	10.3%	2.6%	5.57	4.55	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	3	41	175	48	28	4	7%	1.0	27.4%	16.0%	11.4%	2.3%	3.95	4.08	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	CWS	6	0	6	25	7	4	1	0%	1.0	27.1%	16.5%	10.6%	2.7%	4.67	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CWS	58	0	61	259	68	41	8	0%	1.1	26.2%	16.0%	10.1%	2.9%	4.78	4.89	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	CWS	55	0	58	243	61	38	8	0%	1.0	25.3%	15.8%	9.4%	3.1%	4.93	5.06	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	CWS	22	0	23	97	25	16	3	0%	1.0	26.2%	16.0%	10.1%	2.9%	4.78	4.89	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	32	135	34	21	4	0%	1.1	25.3%	15.8%	9.4%	3.1%	4.93	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	3	95	404	107	64	11	3%	1.0	26.4%	15.9%	10.5%	2.7%	4.47	4.37	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	6	200	848	225	134	23	3%	1.0	26.4%	15.9%	10.5%	2.7%	4.47	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		186	3	205	924	214	129	16	2%	1.1	23.2%	13.9%	9.2%	1.7%	4.65	3.85	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	3	200	901	209	126	16	2%	1.1	23.2%	13.9%	9.2%	1.7%	4.65	3.85	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fraser Ellard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	27.1%	16.5%	2.7%	—	4.97	25.7%	9.8%	119	+0.19	—	—	—
Sam Freeman L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	28	SU	4.21	23.4%	14.6%	2.2%	.265	3.52	22.0%	10.3%	166	-0.69	3.03	299	83
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	75
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	73
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	72
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	72
Rex Brothers L 2015 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	27.2%	23.5%	0.5%	.286	4.05	26.4%	9.1%	64	+0.00	3.10	205	70
James Reeves L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	27.0%	16.2%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.02	280	70
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	70
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	70
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	69
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	69
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	69
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	69
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	69
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	68
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	68
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	66
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	65
Daniel Zamora L 2021 · 5.17 FIP	28	SU	5.17	23.6%	12.5%	4.5%	.357	3.76	21.3%	9.8%	92	-1.41	2.15	310	65
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	26.2%	16.1%	1.12	4.79
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84