Luis Carrasco — OGILVIE

Luis Carrasco P DSL Arizona Red

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%21.2%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	8	1	23	93	16	8	0	12%	2.9	11.7%	10.8%	0.9%	0.0%	2.31	3.47	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	8	1	23	93	16	8	0	12%	2.9	11.7%	10.8%	0.9%	0.0%	2.31	3.47	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	8	1	23	93	16	8	0	12%	2.9	17.2%	8.6%	8.6%	0.0%	2.31	2.76	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	16	1	27	118	17	15	3	6%	1.7	9.8%	15.9%	-6.1%	3.2%	4.67	6.03	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	16	1	27	118	17	15	3	6%	1.7	9.8%	15.9%	-6.1%	3.2%	4.67	6.03	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	16	1	27	118	17	15	3	6%	1.7	14.4%	12.7%	1.7%	2.5%	4.67	4.95	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	19	0	21	87	31	12	0	0%	1.1	24.2%	17.2%	7.0%	0.0%	1.74	3.24	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	19	0	21	87	31	12	0	0%	1.1	24.2%	17.2%	7.0%	0.0%	1.74	3.24	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	19	0	21	87	31	12	0	0%	1.1	35.6%	13.8%	21.8%	0.0%	1.74	1.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	—	13	0	14	59	13	9	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	14.5%	6.6%	2.9%	5.14	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	—	24	0	25	106	24	14	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.80	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	—	11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	12	7	2	0%	1.0	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	113	32	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.90	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		43	2	71	298	44	44	4	5%	1.7	14.6%	14.7%	-0.1%	1.3%	3.04	4.42	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	6	200	839	123	123	11	5%	1.7	14.6%	14.7%	-0.1%	1.3%	3.04	4.42	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Carrasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	21.2%	14.5%	2.9%	—	4.80	22.1%	9.4%	25	-0.34	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	89
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	87
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	85
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	84
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	84
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	84
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	84
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	83
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	83
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.24	22.9%	8.7%	176	+0.05	3.24	203	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	81
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	81
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	81
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	80
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.09	225	79
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	79
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	79