Joel Cruz

P ACL Dodgers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 182 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL LAD Mega	16	12	29	6.21	4.93	20.4%	24.8%	—	K 13.9% · BB 31.1% · FIP 5.86
2025	21	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	13	11	46	3.91	2.93	23.2%	7.6%	—	K 15.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.05
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	8	63	3.98	3.21	25.3%	10.2%	—	K 17.7% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.46
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	12	12	62	5.44	5.44	16.1%	13.7%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAD	5	5	27	5.22	5.14	17.6%	12.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAD	7	7	42	5.05	4.97	18.4%	11.7%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Noah Skirrow (age 23) · Cade Winquest (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%16.1%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%2.4%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	16	12	29	157	32	39	0	75%	1.8	13.9%	31.1%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.21	5.86	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	16	12	29	157	32	39	0	75%	1.8	13.9%	31.1%	-17.2%	0.0%	6.21	5.86	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	16	12	29	157	32	39	0	75%	1.8	20.4%	24.8%	-4.5%	0.0%	6.21	4.93	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	46	198	46	15	3	85%	3.5	15.8%	9.5%	6.3%	2.0%	3.91	4.05	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	46	198	46	15	3	85%	3.5	15.8%	9.5%	6.3%	2.0%	3.91	4.05	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	13	11	46	198	46	15	3	85%	3.5	23.2%	7.6%	15.7%	1.5%	3.91	2.93	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	63	293	74	30	5	42%	3.3	17.7%	12.5%	5.3%	2.3%	3.98	4.46	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	63	293	74	30	5	42%	3.3	17.7%	12.5%	5.3%	2.3%	3.98	4.46	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	63	293	74	30	5	42%	3.3	25.3%	10.2%	15.0%	1.7%	3.98	3.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	12	12	62	262	42	36	8	100%	5.2	16.1%	13.7%	2.4%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	63	266	47	33	8	100%	5.7	17.6%	12.4%	5.2%	2.9%	5.22	5.14	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	270	50	32	8	100%	5.8	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	2.9%	5.05	4.97	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	270	51	31	8	100%	5.8	18.9%	11.5%	7.4%	2.9%	4.96	4.92	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	63	266	50	31	8	100%	6.3	19.0%	11.5%	7.4%	2.9%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	27	114	20	14	3	100%	5.4	17.6%	12.4%	5.2%	2.9%	5.22	5.14	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	42	177	33	21	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	11.7%	6.7%	2.9%	5.05	4.97	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	41	25	6	100%	6.4	18.9%	11.5%	7.4%	2.9%	4.96	4.92	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	54	228	43	26	7	100%	6.0	19.0%	11.5%	7.4%	2.9%	4.94	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	174	733	136	86	21	100%	6.0	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.02	4.59	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	157	99	24	100%	5.9	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.02	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		48	31	138	648	105	104	11	65%	2.9	16.2%	16.1%	0.1%	1.7%	4.42	4.67	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	45	200	937	152	150	15	65%	2.9	16.2%	16.1%	0.1%	1.7%	4.42	4.67	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	16.1%	13.7%	2.9%	—	5.01	18.3%	6.4%	191	-0.43	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	87
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	87
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	86
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	84
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	84
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	82
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	81
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	80
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	18.0%	12.2%	1.11	5.12
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*