Bernardo Rivera — OGILVIE

Bernardo Rivera P ACL Rangers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 23 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%22.0%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	11	5	39	185	52	27	1	45%	3.6	19.1%	18.2%	0.9%	0.7%	5.49	4.19	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	11	5	39	185	52	27	1	45%	3.6	19.1%	18.2%	0.9%	0.7%	5.49	4.19	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	11	5	39	185	52	27	1	45%	3.6	28.1%	14.6%	13.5%	0.5%	5.49	2.85	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	8	39	178	50	24	2	73%	3.5	19.1%	16.9%	2.2%	1.2%	3.92	4.31	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	8	39	178	50	24	2	73%	3.5	19.1%	16.9%	2.2%	1.2%	3.92	4.31	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	8	39	178	50	24	2	73%	3.5	28.1%	13.5%	14.6%	1.1%	3.92	3.05	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	5	0	6	24	4	5	1	0%	1.1	16.7%	20.8%	-4.2%	4.2%	3.18	6.62	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	5	0	6	24	4	5	1	0%	1.1	16.7%	20.8%	-4.2%	4.2%	3.18	6.62	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	5	0	6	24	4	5	1	0%	1.1	16.7%	20.8%	-4.2%	4.2%	3.18	6.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TEX	22	0	23	97	21	14	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	14.9%	7.1%	2.9%	5.13	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	35	0	36	154	35	20	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.89	4.79	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	17	0	18	76	17	10	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.89	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	76	17	10	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.89	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	112	22	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.89	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		27	13	84	387	73	69	5	48%	3.1	19.0%	17.8%	1.2%	1.2%	4.61	4.39	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	31	200	921	175	164	11	48%	3.1	19.0%	17.8%	1.2%	1.2%	4.61	4.39	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bernardo Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	22.0%	14.9%	2.9%	—	4.79	22.9%	9.9%	36	-0.34	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	89
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	83
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	81
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	80
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	80
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	80
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	79
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	78
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	78
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	78
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	78
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	78
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	78
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	78
Ryan Cardona R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	22	SW	5.07	20.9%	17.7%	2.7%	.274	4.27	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.80	3.62	367	78
Carlton Perkins R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	21	SW	4.16	18.6%	15.7%	1.2%	.356	4.88	18.2%	0.2%	66	+0.72	3.61	124	77
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	77
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.5%	13.7%	1.13	4.98
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82