Bernardo Rivera — OGILVIE

Bernardo Rivera P DSL Rangers Red

+0.2 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2028

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.7%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.2%

IP33

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	11	5	39	185	52	27	1	19.1%	18.2%	0.7%	5.49	4.17	+0.3
2025	20	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	11	8	39	178	50	24	2	19.1%	16.9%	1.1%	3.92	4.20	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	TEX	33	—	33	140	32	15	4	22.7%	10.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	TEX	35	—	35	147	35	14	4	23.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.32	4.24	+0.3
2028	23	MLB	TEX	36	—	36	153	37	14	4	24.4%	9.1%	2.8%	4.19	4.10	+0.3
2029	24	MLB	TEX	37	—	37	157	39	14	4	24.9%	8.8%	2.8%	4.08	4.00	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	TEX	38	—	38	159	40	14	4	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	4.00	3.95	+0.4
2031	26	MLB	TEX	38	—	38	159	40	14	4	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	3.95	3.92	+0.4
2032	27	MLB	TEX	37	—	37	157	40	14	4	25.5%	8.6%	2.8%	3.94	3.93	+0.4
2033	28	MLB	TEX	37	—	37	155	39	13	4	25.4%	8.6%	2.8%	3.95	3.96	+0.4
2034	29	MLB	TEX	36	—	36	152	38	13	4	25.3%	8.7%	2.8%	3.98	4.01	+0.4
2035	30	MLB	TEX	35	—	35	147	37	13	4	25.1%	8.8%	2.9%	4.03	4.07	+0.3
2036	31	MLB	TEX	34	—	34	142	35	13	4	24.9%	8.9%	3.0%	4.10	4.14	+0.3
2037	32	MLB	TEX	32	—	32	136	34	12	4	24.6%	9.1%	3.0%	4.18	4.23	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	TEX	31	—	31	130	32	12	4	24.3%	9.3%	3.1%	4.27	4.33	+0.2
2039	34	MLB	TEX	29	—	29	124	30	12	4	23.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.37	4.44	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			22	13	78	363	69	64	3	19.1%	17.6%	0.9%	4.71	4.19	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			56	33	200	927	176	163	8	19.1%	17.6%	0.9%	4.71	4.19	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bernardo Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	22.7%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.11	24.4%	15.2%	108	-0.35	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	93
Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.62	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.22	4.40	140	92
Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	91
Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.88	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.01	3.00	318	91
Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	90
Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	89
Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	89
Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	89
Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	89
Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	89
Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	21	SU	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.29	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.10	4.28	247	88
Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	88
Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	198	88
Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.61	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.02	3.59	112	88
Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.89	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.39	3.18	144	88
Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	22	SU	3.55	22.2%	7.9%	2.4%	.324	3.08	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.47	3.07	194	88
Jonathan Brand R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	87
Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87
Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	87
Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.02	20.5%	8.9%	111	+0.23	2.94	206	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M