Ryan Mitchell

OF Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 185 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2273ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	19	ASTL	496	.231/.394/.365	13	41	72	—	.186/.312/.285
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBSTL	606	.180/.294/.296	13	17	72	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBSTL	159	.187/.300/.310	4	5	78	-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBSTL	250	.193/.304/.324	6	7	83	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Chase%89

BB%88

Speed83

Max EV38

Whiff%26

Z-Con%20

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 7.5, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 81%

CompsCarlos Jimenez (age 20) · Abimelec Ortiz (age 20) · Akil Baddoo (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .292 / .293

PA210

HR5

SB6

K%31

BB%13

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	386	89	9	2	13	100	164	4	41	12	231	394	365	759	135	353	33	20	350	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	414	77	7	2	10	72	223	4	41	12	186	312	285	597	99	347	45	15	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	414	77	7	2	10	72	223	4	41	12	186	312	285	597	99	358	45	15	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	386	89	9	2	13	100	164	4	41	12	231	394	365	759	135	353	33	20	350	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	417	77	7	2	10	72	223	4	41	12	185	312	283	595	98	347	45	15	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	496	417	77	7	2	10	72	223	4	41	12	185	312	283	595	98	347	45	15	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	STL	0%	606	518	93	15	2	13	78	187	5	17	5	180	294	296	590	116	249	31	13	274	72	-21	+1	-3	-4	+13	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	STL	34%	463	397	75	12	2	12	59	139	4	13	4	188	300	315	616	127	252	30	13	284	78	-12	+1	-2	-3	+10	-0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	STL	48%	515	440	85	14	2	14	65	151	5	15	4	194	305	330	635	136	255	29	13	291	83	-11	+1	-2	-3	+11	-0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	STL	54%	560	480	95	16	2	16	70	161	5	17	5	199	308	340	648	142	258	29	12	296	86	-9	+1	-2	-3	+12	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	STL	55%	578	496	101	17	2	17	72	163	5	17	5	203	310	348	658	145	261	28	12	299	89	-8	+1	-1	-3	+13	0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	STL	56%	590	507	104	17	3	17	72	165	6	18	5	205	311	353	664	147	263	28	12	301	90	-7	+2	-0	-4	+13	0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	STL	56%	599	514	107	18	3	18	74	167	6	17	5	205	311	352	663	147	263	28	12	301	90	-7	+1	-0	-4	+13	0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	596	513	104	18	2	17	73	167	5	17	5	204	310	349	659	145	262	28	12	300	89	-8	+1	-0	-4	+13	0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	585	503	102	17	2	17	72	165	5	14	4	202	308	344	652	142	261	28	12	297	87	-9	+1	-1	-4	+13	0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	568	489	98	16	2	16	69	162	5	11	4	200	305	338	643	138	259	29	12	293	85	-10	+1	-2	-3	+12	-0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	STL	53%	552	475	93	15	2	15	67	159	5	9	3	196	302	330	631	133	257	29	12	288	81	-12	+1	-2	-3	+12	-0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	STL	34%	159	137	26	4	1	4	20	48	1	5	1	187	300	310	610	123	254	30	13	281	78	-4	+1	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	STL	48%	250	214	41	7	1	6	32	73	2	7	2	193	304	324	628	131	257	29	13	288	83	-5	+1	-1	-2	+5	-0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	STL	54%	304	260	51	9	1	8	38	87	3	9	2	198	307	334	641	136	260	29	12	293	86	-5	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	STL	55%	320	274	56	10	1	9	40	90	3	10	3	202	309	341	651	140	262	28	12	297	89	-4	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	STL	56%	330	284	57	10	1	9	40	92	3	10	3	205	310	346	656	141	264	28	12	299	90	-4	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	STL	56%	337	290	58	10	1	9	41	94	3	10	3	204	310	346	656	141	264	28	12	298	90	-4	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	330	283	57	10	1	9	41	92	3	9	3	203	309	343	652	140	263	28	12	297	89	-4	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	321	276	56	10	1	9	39	91	3	8	2	201	307	338	645	137	262	28	12	294	87	-5	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	303	260	52	9	1	8	37	86	3	6	2	199	304	332	636	133	260	28	12	291	85	-6	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	STL	53%	290	251	48	8	1	7	35	84	2	4	2	196	301	324	625	128	258	29	12	286	81	-6	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2944	2529	502	87	10	78	363	837	26	78	23	198	305	333	639	135	260	28	12	293	84	-48	+6	-6	-18	+64	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	110	19	2	17	80	185	6	17	5	197	304	330	634	133	258	28	12	293	84	-11	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6312	5407	1074	172	25	174	792	1887	57	195	58	199	307	336	644	138	266	30	13	293	84	-101	+12	-14	-35	+126	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	557	111	18	3	18	82	194	6	20	6	199	309	339	648	140	266	30	13	293	84	-11	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 496 PAwOBA .346 → .275 (−71)K% 33.1% → 45.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.06%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	44.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.16%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	14.54%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.66%
Singles /BIP	29.28%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.048	×1.045	29.50%
Doubles /BIP	4.05%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.048	×1.045	3.68%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.048	×1.045	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	5.86%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	4.90%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .346 → .275; ISO .135 → .103; BABIP .353 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Franklin Stubbs'84-'95 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,899 PA	4.4	2,899	104	74	229*	301*	428*	-43	+18	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	17	-9.8	+4.2	1.4	pk7: 6
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#5Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#6Dan Johnson'05-'15 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,625 PA	2.4	1,625	57	1	226*	330*	401*	-30	-3	2.2	2.8
/162	664	23	0	-12.2	-1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.8	3,154	88	84	200	304	340	-19	+0	2.1	2.2
/162	664	18	18	-4.0	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Mitchell (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	179/292/293	115	249	5	6	31%	13%	72	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	35→44	42→50	53→55	51	176/278/284	108	252	10	16	32%	11%	63	-1.3	209/288/321	112	322	10	16	35%	9%	74	-0.5	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2022 · A	20	36→42	47→60	50→40	54	185/296/323	138	225	14	8	24%	11%	80	-0.2	204/271/370	166	279	22	5	34%	7%	80	-0.2	215/282/406	191	269	25	2	30%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	43→53	43→50	56→55	47	207/283/329	122	293	8	13	30%	9%	74	-0.6	215/284/346	131	317	11	16	33%	9%	78	-0.3	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Victor Arias 2024 · A	20	41→50	40→45	55→50	48	193/289/289	97	300	7	16	35%	11%	68	-1.0	227/296/340	113	318	9	15	29%	8%	81	-0.1	226/289/343	117	310	10	15	29%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→50	41→45	47→55	46	197/270/297	100	265	8	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	207/284/295	88	286	5	16	27%	9%	67	-1.1	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	42→52	38→50	52→50	44	203/259/282	79	268	5	14	25%	7%	53	-2.1	228/290/353	125	327	10	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→54	43→60	57→50	43	219/279/335	116	297	10	13	29%	7%	74	-0.6	230/290/411	181	294	21	13	28%	7%	96	+1.0	230/297/414	184	294	20	15	28%	8%	99	+1.1
✕Forrest Wall 2016 · A	20	48→55	42→45	58→70	46	229/285/342	114	291	8	18	24%	7%	77	-0.3	223/277/319	96	299	8	18	26%	6%	69	-0.9	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Rio Ruiz 2014 · A	20	45→54	44→50	50→40	45	221/278/350	129	289	10	8	27%	7%	76	-0.4	241/308/352	111	311	9	4	23%	9%	88	+0.4	246/316/351	105	316	8	2	23%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Conner Capel 2018 · A	21	39→48	47→45	49→55	42	203/257/343	140	262	14	11	28%	6%	68	-1.0	215/268/332	117	289	11	11	28%	6%	69	-0.9	226/297/349	123	283	12	19	23%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Estevan Florial 2017 · A	19	39→49	42→50	52→60	40	192/255/297	106	289	10	11	35%	7%	56	-1.9	217/275/334	117	369	10	13	40%	7%	72	-0.7	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
●Daylen Lile 2024 · A	21	44→54	44→55	55	43	213/273/340	127	293	10	15	30%	7%	72	-0.7	244/298/387	143	300	11	16	22%	6%	92	+0.7	254/307/414	160	300	13	17	19%	6%	101	+1.4
✕Sean Henry 2006 · A	20	42→52	43→50	55	42	204/269/312	108	298	11	15	34%	8%	65	-1.2	229/283/355	126	291	11	19	24%	6%	80	-0.2	251/305/379	128	300	11	17	19%	6%	91	+0.6
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	46→48	42→55	57→55	44	221/281/328	107	312	8	21	30%	8%	72	-0.7	211/286/306	95	305	8	18	31%	9%	70	-0.8	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Daryl Jones 2007 · A	20	42→52	41→45	49→50	41	203/270/300	97	269	8	10	27%	6%	63	-1.4	226/292/322	96	303	8	14	26%	7%	76	-0.4	242/312/349	107	314	9	14	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Alejandro Osuna 2023 · A	20	48→56	44→45	50→55	45	235/300/346	111	313	12	23	28%	8%	84	+0.2	231/300/353	122	307	12	19	27%	8%	86	+0.3	244/321/351	107	303	9	19	21%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Jordan Schafer 2007 · A	20	40→50	42→50	50→65	37	198/237/304	106	277	9	12	31%	5%	50	-2.3	237/291/378	141	330	12	13	30%	7%	87	+0.4	244/304/393	149	338	12	14	30%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	41→51	40→45	55	44	198/266/291	93	280	8	16	30%	8%	59	-1.7	243/305/349	106	326	7	24	25%	8%	86	+0.3	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→50	41→50	50	45	204/264/307	103	268	7	10	26%	7%	61	-1.5	231/294/358	127	293	12	10	24%	7%	84	+0.2	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4

Ryan Mitchell

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps