Ryan Mitchell — OGILVIE

Ryan MitchellOF Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION316 act + 210 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .307 / .313

PA210

HR5

SB9

K%37

BB%13

BABIP300

ISO123

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$15M		$31M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	STL	—	316	257	39	5	1	7	51	148	3	21	8	152	299	261	560	109	299	47	16	263	59	-14	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.7
YTD	19	A	STL	—	316	240	49	6	2	9	68	104	3	21	8	204	386	358	744	154	303	33	22	343	120	+7	+1	+0	-2	+9	1.6
ROS	19	A	STL	0%	210	178	34	5	1	5	28	78	2	9	3	190	307	313	620	123	297	37	13	286	77	-5	+1	-1	-1	+6	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	STL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		296	—	—	279	71	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	A	STL	—	316	258	39	5	1	7	51	148	3	21	8	151	299	260	559	109	296	47	16	263	59	-14	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.7
TOT	19	A	STL	—	526	435	73	10	2	12	79	226	5	30	11	168	302	282	584	115	300	43	15	272	66	-20	+2	-1	-3	+15	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	STL	43%	570	486	97	16	3	15	73	201	6	16	5	200	312	337	649	138	300	35	13	297	85	-9	+1	-2	-3	+16	0.2
2028	21	MLB	STL	61%	597	509	104	17	3	16	76	203	7	17	5	204	316	344	660	139	300	34	13	304	91	-6	+1	-2	-4	+17	0.6
2029	22	MLB	STL	68%	615	526	110	18	3	18	77	204	7	17	6	209	318	357	675	148	300	33	13	308	94	-4	+1	-2	-4	+17	0.8
2030	23	MLB	STL	71%	627	537	114	19	3	19	78	205	7	17	6	212	320	365	685	153	301	33	12	311	96	-3	+1	-2	-4	+18	1.0
2031	24	MLB	STL	71%	634	542	115	19	3	19	80	206	7	18	6	212	321	363	685	151	302	32	13	313	98	-2	+1	-2	-4	+18	1.1
2032	25	MLB	STL	71%	639	546	118	20	4	19	81	207	7	18	6	216	325	372	697	156	302	32	13	314	98	-1	+1	-2	-4	+18	1.2
2033	26	MLB	STL	71%	642	548	118	20	3	20	81	208	8	18	6	215	325	372	697	157	302	32	13	314	99	-1	+1	-2	-4	+18	1.2
2034	27	MLB	STL	69%	639	545	116	19	3	20	81	208	8	18	6	213	323	369	692	156	301	33	13	314	99	-1	+1	-2	-4	+18	1.2
2035	28	MLB	STL	69%	633	540	114	19	3	19	81	206	7	17	5	211	322	363	685	152	301	33	13	313	98	-1	+1	-3	-4	+18	1.1
2036	29	MLB	STL	67%	621	529	112	18	3	19	80	204	7	15	5	212	323	365	688	153	300	33	13	311	96	-2	+1	-4	-4	+18	0.9
2027	20	MLB	STL	43%	246	209	41	7	1	6	32	87	3	7	2	196	311	325	637	129	300	35	13	289	79	-6	+1	-1	-1	+7	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	STL	61%	363	310	64	11	2	10	46	123	4	10	3	206	317	352	668	145	300	34	13	295	84	-7	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.1
2029	22	MLB	STL	68%	419	358	75	13	2	12	53	139	5	12	4	209	320	358	677	148	300	33	13	299	87	-6	+1	-2	-3	+12	0.3
2030	23	MLB	STL	71%	446	382	81	14	2	13	56	146	5	12	4	212	321	361	682	149	301	33	13	302	90	-5	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.4
2031	24	MLB	STL	71%	450	385	83	14	2	14	57	146	5	13	4	216	324	371	696	156	302	32	13	304	91	-5	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.5
2032	25	MLB	STL	71%	453	388	83	14	2	14	57	147	5	13	4	214	322	369	691	155	302	32	13	305	92	-4	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.5
2033	26	MLB	STL	71%	455	390	83	14	2	14	57	147	5	13	4	213	321	367	687	154	301	32	13	305	92	-4	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.5
2034	27	MLB	STL	69%	444	379	81	13	2	14	57	144	5	12	4	214	324	369	694	156	301	32	13	305	92	-4	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.5
2035	28	MLB	STL	69%	435	371	78	13	2	13	56	142	5	12	4	210	322	361	683	151	301	33	13	304	91	-4	+1	-2	-3	+12	0.4
2036	29	MLB	STL	67%	415	354	74	12	2	12	53	136	5	10	3	209	320	356	676	147	300	33	13	303	90	-5	+1	-3	-2	+12	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4126	3527	743	125	19	122	524	1357	47	114	36	211	321	361	681	150	300	33	13	302	89	-50	+8	-17	-25	+117	3.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	556	117	20	3	19	83	214	7	18	6	210	321	360	681	149	301	33	13	302	89	-8	+1	-3	-4	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	6427	5486	1152	190	32	189	816	2130	73	180	59	210	320	360	680	150	301	33	13	309	95	-37	+12	-27	-39	+182	9.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	555	116	19	3	19	83	215	7	18	6	209	319	357	676	148	299	33	13	309	95	-4	+1	-3	-4	+18	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,447	130	120	213	319	365	-27	+0	8.5	7.6
	/162	664	19	18	213	319	365	-4.0	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Mitchell (OGILVIE)	19	31→55	33→50	58→57	50	168/302/282	115	300	12	30	43%	15%	66	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→43	46→55	53→50	45	188/278/321	133	289	14	16	37%	10%	68	-0.5	217/294/348	131	331	14	16	35%	9%	81	+0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
●Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→54	42→55	52→55	49	219/296/333	114	288	7	10	25%	9%	77	+0.1	195/265/303	108	302	7	13	35%	8%	56	-1.3	240/322/392	152	311	15	24	26%	11%	100	+1.2
✕Ravel Santana 2011 · A	19	43	46→50	51→55	47	216/296/344	128	273	15	16	26%	8%	81	+0.4	220/281/361	141	294	15	13	29%	7%	78	+0.2	205/253/387	182	264	22	15	31%	6%	72	-0.1
●Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→55	43→60	57→50	42	218/277/333	115	296	10	13	29%	7%	69	-0.4	234/291/434	200	292	25	13	28%	7%	102	+1.9	227/288/440	213	276	26	14	28%	7%	100	+1.5
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	47→50	45→40	47	217/283/352	135	277	15	5	27%	8%	76	+0.1	243/301/378	135	296	16	4	23%	7%	91	+1.1	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→58	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	73	-0.1	221/273/317	96	291	7	16	25%	6%	62	-0.9	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	88	+0.9	191/266/284	93	290	7	5	34%	9%	52	-1.6	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
✕Samuel Zavala 2023 · A	19	42→46	47→45	48→50	44	211/278/352	141	295	13	10	32%	8%	74	-0.1	192/285/302	110	297	12	12	36%	11%	66	-0.6	186/281/285	99	269	11	13	32%	11%	57	-0.9
✕Khalil Lee 2017 · A	19	43→52	44→45	50→55	43	202/283/323	121	316	10	9	36%	9%	69	-0.4	203/275/320	117	336	11	17	39%	8%	66	-0.6	202/298/324	122	329	12	25	38%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Alejandro Osuna 2022 · A	19	42→52	44→45	51→55	41	197/274/315	117	320	11	18	39%	8%	63	-0.8	229/292/349	120	311	13	20	29%	7%	79	+0.3	236/313/345	109	298	10	19	23%	8%	84	+0.4
●Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	44	39→55	52→50	46	210/278/299	89	296	6	9	30%	8%	60	-1.0	189/246/313	124	271	11	8	33%	7%	50	-1.7	218/311/403	185	271	23	12	27%	11%	99	+1.3
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→60	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	90	+1.0	242/299/403	161	346	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.5	244/307/431	187	323	23	5	30%	8%	103	+1.7
✕Marcelo Mayer 2022 · A	19	46→45	43→50	53→50	42	216/280/325	108	329	10	12	35%	8%	68	-0.5	216/281/362	146	316	16	12	34%	8%	79	+0.3	231/283/364	133	283	15	10	23%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	44→53	44→50	50→55	42	218/268/339	121	285	11	12	27%	6%	66	-0.6	230/295/375	145	298	17	16	27%	8%	88	+0.9	233/300/377	144	296	17	19	26%	8%	87	+0.7
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	52→55	47	210/291/312	102	321	7	14	34%	10%	70	-0.3	212/314/339	127	299	15	12	31%	12%	88	+0.9	207/304/326	119	281	14	14	29%	11%	78	+0.2
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	43	223/277/358	134	288	13	16	27%	6%	76	+0.0	227/293/391	164	273	19	14	24%	8%	91	+1.1	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
✕John Drennen 2006 · A	19	39→49	47→50	47→45	42	202/261/332	130	256	15	8	28%	6%	63	-0.9	220/278/321	101	286	9	6	25%	6%	66	-0.6	246/296/375	130	293	10	1	19%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Estevan Florial 2016 · A	18	46→53	44→55	54→60	41	222/283/347	125	322	10	12	33%	7%	75	-0.0	211/270/330	119	351	11	13	40%	7%	65	-0.7	214/281/384	170	311	19	29	36%	8%	81	+0.4
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	46→56	45→50	49→45	43	227/292/347	120	278	12	9	23%	5%	80	+0.4	244/297/370	126	294	14	7	21%	5%	88	+0.9	253/307/382	129	303	14	6	21%	5%	91	+0.9