Ethan Holliday

SS Fresno Grizzlies

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

APROSPECTFG #44MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP53ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ACOL	84	.239/.357/.380	2	0	38	—	.145/.226/.211
2026	19	ACOL	152	.262/.400/.557	9	1	106	—	.211/.327/.438
2027PROJ4% MLB	20	MLBCOL	6	.231/.309/.416	0	0	90	0.0
2028PROJ45% MLB	21	MLBCOL	107	.237/.314/.430	4	2	95	0.3
2029PROJ62% MLB	22	MLBCOL	218	.241/.318/.442	9	4	99	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$5M2033Arb-2$9M2034Arb-3$13M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO97

wRC+88

wOBA87

BB%73

Chase%63

Speed50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 31, comp-based) · star 9% · didn't stick 77%

CompsEric Arce (age 20) · Samuel Basallo (age 19) · Nolan Gorman (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .309 / .416

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%17

BABIP303

ISO171

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$35M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 65

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER65

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2033	Arb-2	$9M	+1.6	$8M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+1.6	$8M	+$1M
Totals		$30M		$41M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	122	32	5	2	9	23	43	5	1	1	262	400	557	957	295	319	28	15	412	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	380	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	128	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	211	327	438	764	227	298	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	357	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	71	17	4	0	2	12	33	1	0	0	239	357	380	737	141	417	39	14	338	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	128	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	211	327	438	764	227	312	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	122	32	5	2	9	23	43	5	1	1	262	400	557	957	295	319	28	15	412	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	380	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	129	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	209	327	434	761	225	298	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	84	76	11	2	0	1	7	47	1	0	0	145	226	211	437	66	380	56	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	152	129	27	4	2	7	17	59	5	1	1	209	327	434	761	225	298	39	11	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	COL	4%	262	234	51	8	2	9	23	80	3	4	1	218	296	380	677	163	286	31	9	302	90	-3	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	20	MLB CTX	COL	4%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	231	309	416	725	185	303	33	17	320	90	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	COL	45%	238	212	47	8	2	8	21	71	3	4	1	222	301	393	695	171	288	30	9	309	95	-1	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	COL	62%	355	316	71	12	2	13	31	104	5	6	2	226	305	403	709	177	289	29	9	315	99	-0	+0	-0	+4	+8	1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	COL	68%	431	384	88	15	3	16	38	124	6	7	2	230	309	411	720	182	290	29	9	319	102	+1	+1	-0	+5	+9	1.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	COL	70%	483	431	100	17	3	19	43	137	6	8	2	232	311	417	728	185	291	28	9	322	104	+2	+1	+0	+5	+10	2.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	COL	70%	511	454	106	18	3	20	45	143	7	8	3	234	312	421	734	187	292	28	9	324	106	+3	+0	+1	+5	+11	2.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	COL	71%	527	468	109	18	3	21	47	148	7	9	3	234	313	424	737	189	291	28	9	326	106	+4	+1	+1	+6	+11	2.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	COL	69%	532	473	109	18	3	21	47	150	7	8	3	233	312	421	733	188	291	28	9	324	106	+4	+0	+1	+6	+12	2.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	COL	69%	531	472	109	18	3	21	47	151	7	8	3	232	310	417	727	185	290	28	9	322	104	+2	+0	+0	+6	+12	2.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	COL	67%	523	466	107	18	3	20	46	150	6	7	3	229	307	411	718	181	289	29	9	318	101	+1	+0	-1	+6	+11	1.8
2037	30	MLB MLE	COL	66%	514	458	103	17	3	19	45	149	6	7	3	227	304	403	707	177	287	29	9	314	99	-1	+0	-1	+6	+11	1.5
2038	31	MLB MLE	COL	65%	501	447	99	16	3	18	43	147	6	5	5	223	299	394	693	171	284	29	9	308	95	-3	-1	-2	+5	+11	1.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	COL	65%	483	434	94	15	3	17	41	144	5	4	11	218	293	382	675	164	280	30	8	301	90	-6	-4	-3	+5	+10	0.3
2040	33	MLB MLE	COL	70%	454	408	86	14	2	15	38	138	5	4	31	211	286	367	653	155	276	30	8	292	84	-9	-12	-3	+5	+10	-0.9
2028	21	MLB CTX	COL	45%	107	96	23	4	1	4	9	32	1	2	1	237	314	430	745	194	305	30	8	328	95	-1	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	COL	62%	218	194	47	8	2	9	19	64	3	4	1	241	318	442	760	201	306	29	9	334	99	-0	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	COL	68%	295	263	64	10	3	13	26	85	4	5	2	244	322	450	772	206	307	29	9	339	102	+1	+0	-0	+3	+6	1.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	COL	70%	337	300	74	12	3	15	30	95	4	6	2	247	324	457	781	210	308	28	9	342	104	+2	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	COL	70%	359	319	79	13	3	16	32	100	5	6	2	249	326	461	787	212	308	28	9	345	106	+2	+0	+1	+4	+8	1.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	COL	71%	372	331	82	13	3	17	33	104	5	6	2	249	326	464	790	215	308	28	9	346	106	+3	+0	+1	+4	+8	1.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	COL	69%	369	328	81	13	3	17	33	104	5	6	2	248	325	461	786	213	308	28	9	345	106	+2	+0	+1	+4	+8	1.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	COL	69%	365	325	80	13	3	16	32	104	5	5	2	246	323	456	779	210	307	28	9	342	104	+2	+0	+0	+4	+8	1.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	COL	67%	350	312	76	12	3	15	31	100	4	5	2	244	320	449	769	205	305	29	9	338	101	+1	+0	-0	+4	+8	1.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	COL	66%	338	301	73	12	3	14	30	98	4	4	2	241	317	441	757	200	303	29	9	333	99	-1	+0	-1	+4	+7	1.0
2038	31	MLB CTX	COL	65%	326	291	69	11	3	13	28	96	4	3	3	236	312	430	742	194	300	29	9	327	95	-2	-1	-1	+3	+7	0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	COL	65%	313	280	64	10	2	12	27	93	3	3	7	231	306	416	722	185	296	30	9	319	90	-4	-2	-2	+3	+7	0.2
2040	33	MLB CTX	COL	70%	319	286	64	10	2	12	27	97	3	3	22	224	298	400	698	176	291	30	8	309	84	-6	-8	-2	+3	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4068	3626	876	141	34	173	357	1172	50	58	50	242	318	442	760	201	305	29	9	335	99	-1	-8	-5	+44	+88	11.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	140	23	5	28	57	187	8	9	8	242	318	444	762	202	304	29	9	335	99	-0	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6463	5756	1295	215	39	241	568	1906	84	88	74	225	304	401	705	177	289	29	9	314	99	-5	-12	-8	+67	+135	18.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	130	22	4	24	57	192	8	9	7	225	303	401	703	176	289	30	9	314	99	-0	-1	-1	+7	+14	1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Paul DeJonglast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,500 PA	5.3	3,500	146	29	229	294	416	+36	+35	16.1	16.0
/162	664	28	6	+6.8	+6.6	3.1	pk7: 16
#3Heinie Wagner'02-'18 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,771 PA	5.7	3,771	10	144	251*	324*	410*	+36	-7	15.0	14.9
/162	664	2	25	+6.4	-1.3	2.6	pk7: 15
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.1	4,073	154	57	229	303	408	+44	+4	14.5	12.8
/162	664	25	9	+7.1	+0.6	2.4	pk7: 11
#5Daryl Spencer'52-'63 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,206 PA	6.3	4,206	105	13	236*	321*	384*	+30	-4	11.2	11.7
/162	664	17	2	+4.8	-0.6	1.8	pk7: 12
#6Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Holliday (OGILVIE)	20	34→46	54→65	46	57	216/294/377	161	286	5	2	30%	9%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	214/312/402	188	287	23	4	32%	10%	103	+1.5	198/287/352	154	334	18	4	42%	10%	82	-0.0	140/248/285	145	254	20	0	49%	11%	51	-0.6
✕Samuel Basallo 2024 · AA	19	48→51	51→55	49→45	45	241/301/404	163	305	18	7	27%	8%	98	+1.2	236/295/399	163	297	20	6	27%	7%	95	+0.9	227/288/392	165	278	23	3	27%	7%	90	+0.4
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	44→46	54→60	38→45	41	223/287/401	178	325	23	4	37%	8%	93	+0.8	210/264/355	145	313	16	4	36%	6%	73	-0.6	216/289/434	218	282	33	7	35%	9%	102	+1.2
✕Nick Weglarz 2008 · A	20	44→48	50	44→45	46	222/301/378	155	310	19	3	33%	9%	93	+0.8	231/317/384	153	294	16	5	25%	10%	99	+1.3	231/323/389	157	284	16	5	23%	10%	101	+1.0
●Ian Stewart 2006 · A	21	47→55	51→60	46→45	44	233/296/402	169	313	17	4	30%	8%	95	+1.0	245/307/406	161	320	15	6	27%	7%	101	+1.4	243/318/440	197	310	24	9	28%	8%	112	+2.0
✕Lazaro Montes 2024 · A	19	47	50→60	46→45	47	220/315/383	163	339	17	4	37%	10%	99	+1.3	220/305/402	182	314	23	5	35%	10%	100	+1.3	209/298/408	199	288	27	5	36%	10%	96	+1.0
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	40→50	54→70	46→45	43	211/285/395	184	296	22	5	35%	9%	91	+0.6	230/313/454	224	319	28	7	35%	10%	114	+2.4	244/332/473	229	340	30	2	35%	11%	126	+2.9
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	41→51	46→50	45→40	50	210/283/334	125	261	14	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	248/309/379	131	301	14	4	21%	8%	95	+0.9	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2010 · AA	21	43→53	52→55	47→45	42	225/273/392	167	271	20	4	25%	6%	85	+0.2	245/295/393	148	289	16	4	21%	5%	93	+0.8	265/317/428	163	306	18	4	19%	6%	110	+1.4
●Ryan McMahon 2015 · A	20	43→53	46→55	43→45	39	211/269/348	136	312	12	6	35%	7%	73	-0.6	240/294/393	153	349	15	7	33%	6%	93	+0.8	232/313/397	165	299	19	6	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	43→52	47→60	49→50	45	219/279/359	140	286	14	13	28%	8%	79	-0.2	231/278/376	145	308	14	12	28%	6%	82	+0.0	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	45→55	52→55	45→50	49	228/310/392	164	299	20	5	30%	10%	99	+1.3	209/309/374	165	282	20	9	31%	12%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	45→48	49→60	46→50	47	220/300/377	156	305	15	6	31%	9%	92	+0.7	206/285/353	147	323	17	6	38%	9%	81	-0.1	222/305/421	199	281	26	11	30%	10%	104	+1.3
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	215/300/346	131	277	14	9	26%	8%	85	+0.2	217/306/408	191	287	24	6	32%	9%	102	+1.5	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	48→55	50→55	47→50	43	240/295/394	155	317	19	7	30%	7%	93	+0.8	250/308/413	163	357	17	3	33%	7%	103	+1.5	253/318/428	175	356	19	2	32%	8%	108	+1.7
●Tyler Soderstrom 2022 · A	20	51→52	50→60	47→40	42	249/309/414	165	347	17	6	32%	7%	103	+1.5	227/279/411	184	296	24	2	31%	6%	92	+0.7	249/327/456	208	287	26	4	23%	9%	120	+2.2
✕Xavier Isaac 2024 · A	20	45→44	51→55	55→50	48	228/303/392	164	299	18	9	29%	9%	96	+1.0	216/302/390	174	327	21	12	37%	10%	96	+1.0	205/305/390	184	309	24	14	38%	12%	94	+0.6
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	44→43	47→55	48→45	41	216/276/358	142	306	13	9	32%	7%	78	-0.3	206/276/342	136	304	13	8	34%	8%	74	-0.5	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	50→53	47→55	53→45	45	241/305/384	143	332	14	8	30%	8%	95	+0.9	257/313/415	158	319	18	5	24%	7%	105	+1.7	260/320/417	157	316	18	4	23%	8%	107	+1.6
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→48	42→55	45→50	49	189/279/298	109	272	9	7	32%	11%	66	-1.1	205/296/340	135	284	14	9	30%	11%	82	-0.0	233/312/421	188	299	22	7	28%	10%	105	+1.6

Ethan Holliday

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps