Johan Cabeza

P ACL Reds

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Rojos	12	11	30	3.90	2.20	23.1%	8.5%	—	K 15.7% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.11
2026	20	ROKCIN	7	4	26	3.42	4.09	19.2%	8.7%	—	K 13.1% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.58
2027PROJ	21	MLBCIN	3	3	16	4.80	4.80	19.4%	10.5%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCIN	3	3	14	4.62	4.53	20.9%	9.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 96%

CompsChad Donato (age 22) · Gabe Bierman (age 21) · Florencio Serrano (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%19.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	3	12	56	8	6	0	50%	2.1	9.7%	13.4%	-3.7%	0.0%	4.38	3.98	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	3	12	56	8	6	0	50%	2.1	9.7%	13.4%	-3.7%	0.0%	4.38	3.98	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	6	3	12	56	8	6	0	50%	2.1	14.3%	10.7%	3.6%	0.0%	4.38	3.26	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	11	30	130	30	11	0	92%	2.5	15.7%	10.6%	5.1%	0.0%	3.90	3.11	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	11	30	130	30	11	0	92%	2.5	15.7%	10.6%	5.1%	0.0%	3.90	3.11	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	12	11	30	130	30	11	0	92%	2.5	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	0.0%	3.90	2.20	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	4	26	104	20	9	3	57%	3.8	13.1%	10.8%	2.3%	4.0%	3.42	5.58	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	4	26	104	20	9	3	57%	3.8	13.1%	10.8%	2.3%	4.0%	3.42	5.58	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	7	4	26	104	20	9	3	57%	3.8	19.2%	8.7%	10.6%	2.9%	3.42	4.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	3	3	16	68	13	7	2	100%	5.3	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	28	120	25	12	3	100%	4.7	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.53	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	14	59	12	6	2	100%	4.7	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.53	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	14	59	12	6	2	100%	4.7	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.15	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	172	86	29	100%	5.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		25	18	69	290	39	32	4	72%	2.7	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%	1.4%	3.80	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	52	200	845	115	95	12	72%	2.7	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%	1.4%	3.80	4.17	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Cabeza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	19.4%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.53	20.9%	11.3%	28	-0.27	—	—	—
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	84
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	83
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	80
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	80
Jose Gonzalez R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP-	4.11	16.0%	10.4%	1.9%	.318	3.65	21.0%	13.9%	295	-0.46	2.47	371	80
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	80
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	78
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	78