Bo Davidson
CF Richmond Flying Squirrels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 332 | .318/.423/.568 | 12 | 10 | 121 | — | .255/.342/.454 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+SF | 522 | .281/.378/.468 | 18 | 19 | 91 | — | .236/.310/.373 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AASF | 549 | .290/.365/.527 | 29 | 20 | 107 | — | .258/.311/.438 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBSF | 22 | .350/.381/.350 | 0 | 1 | 105 | 0.3 | |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 25 | MLBSF | 21 | .238/.298/.391 | 1 | 1 | 98 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ42% MLB | 26 | MLBSF | 238 | .238/.299/.391 | 8 | 7 | 98 | 0.6 | |
| 2029PROJ55% MLB | 27 | MLBSF | 305 | .237/.299/.388 | 10 | 8 | 98 | 0.8 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | — | 58 | 49 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 397 | 469 | 866 | 184 | 351 | 19 | 16 | 385 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 226 | 189 | 62 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 54 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 328 | 438 | 608 | 1.047 | 280 | 421 | 24 | 14 | 452 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants | — | 37 | 31 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 323 | 432 | 581 | 1.013 | 258 | 444 | 30 | 16 | 442 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 69 | 60 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 283 | 368 | 433 | 801 | 150 | 421 | 32 | 12 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 187 | 167 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 234 | 312 | 401 | 713 | 168 | 272 | 24 | 10 | 318 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 335 | 282 | 87 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 74 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 309 | 414 | 507 | 922 | 199 | 385 | 22 | 15 | 405 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 22 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 350 | 381 | 350 | 731 | 500 | 32 | 5 | 320 | 105 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +0 | 0.3 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 234 | 204 | 63 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 309 | 392 | 534 | 927 | 225 | 349 | 19 | 11 | 404 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 315 | 282 | 78 | 12 | 0 | 19 | 28 | 74 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 277 | 344 | 521 | 865 | 245 | 306 | 23 | 9 | 374 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 22 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 350 | 381 | 350 | 731 | 500 | 32 | 5 | 320 | 102 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +0 | 0.3 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 58 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 276 | 358 | 634 | 151 | 261 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 226 | 198 | 53 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 77 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 268 | 358 | 480 | 838 | 212 | 401 | 34 | 10 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants | — | 37 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 243 | 294 | 537 | 118 | 337 | 43 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 187 | 172 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 54 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 198 | 258 | 308 | 566 | 110 | 248 | 29 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 335 | 296 | 76 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 93 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 257 | 339 | 409 | 748 | 152 | 345 | 28 | 10 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 22 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 350 | 381 | 350 | 731 | 500 | 32 | 5 | 324 | 105 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +0 | 0.3 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 234 | 212 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 274 | 336 | 439 | 775 | 165 | 330 | 23 | 7 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 315 | 292 | 72 | 11 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 90 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 247 | 293 | 438 | 731 | 192 | 292 | 29 | 6 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 58 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 276 | 358 | 634 | 151 | 270 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK RAW | ACL Giants Orange | — | 58 | 49 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 397 | 469 | 866 | 184 | 351 | 19 | 16 | 385 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 332 | 293 | 76 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 117 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 259 | 344 | 464 | 809 | 205 | 395 | 35 | 10 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 332 | 280 | 89 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 87 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 318 | 423 | 568 | 991 | 250 | 423 | 26 | 14 | 430 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 522 | 468 | 111 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 148 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 237 | 312 | 380 | 692 | 143 | 315 | 28 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 522 | 449 | 126 | 16 | 7 | 18 | 68 | 119 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 281 | 378 | 468 | 845 | 187 | 344 | 23 | 13 | 374 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 571 | 523 | 137 | 23 | 1 | 22 | 37 | 150 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 262 | 316 | 436 | 752 | 174 | 321 | 26 | 6 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 571 | 506 | 148 | 26 | 1 | 29 | 54 | 125 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 292 | 365 | 520 | 885 | 227 | 331 | 22 | 9 | 384 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 58 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 276 | 358 | 634 | 151 | 261 | 26 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 332 | 291 | 76 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 117 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 261 | 344 | 467 | 812 | 206 | 392 | 35 | 10 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 522 | 466 | 111 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 148 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 238 | 312 | 382 | 694 | 144 | 310 | 28 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 571 | 525 | 137 | 23 | 1 | 22 | 37 | 150 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 261 | 316 | 434 | 750 | 173 | 316 | 26 | 6 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 332 | 291 | 76 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 117 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 261 | 344 | 467 | 812 | 206 | 392 | 35 | 10 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 522 | 466 | 111 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 148 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 238 | 312 | 382 | 694 | 144 | 310 | 28 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 571 | 525 | 137 | 23 | 1 | 22 | 37 | 150 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 261 | 316 | 434 | 750 | 173 | 316 | 26 | 6 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | SF | 10% | 380 | 348 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 101 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 243 | 303 | 404 | 707 | 162 | 301 | 27 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | SF | 10% | 21 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 391 | 689 | 153 | 296 | 29 | 10 | 306 | 98 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | SF | 42% | 562 | 512 | 124 | 19 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 147 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 243 | 304 | 404 | 708 | 162 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | SF | 55% | 560 | 509 | 123 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 42 | 147 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 242 | 304 | 402 | 706 | 160 | 299 | 26 | 8 | 312 | 98 | -2 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 61% | 543 | 494 | 119 | 19 | 2 | 18 | 41 | 142 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 240 | 302 | 398 | 700 | 157 | 297 | 26 | 8 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 62% | 528 | 481 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 139 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 238 | 300 | 392 | 692 | 154 | 296 | 26 | 7 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 63% | 515 | 469 | 111 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 38 | 136 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 235 | 298 | 385 | 682 | 149 | 293 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB MLE | SF | 64% | 286 | 261 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 77 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 293 | 375 | 668 | 144 | 290 | 27 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | SF | 42% | 238 | 217 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 62 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 238 | 299 | 391 | 690 | 153 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 306 | 98 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | SF | 55% | 305 | 277 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 80 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 237 | 299 | 388 | 687 | 152 | 294 | 26 | 8 | 305 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 61% | 331 | 301 | 71 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 87 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 235 | 298 | 384 | 682 | 149 | 293 | 26 | 8 | 303 | 96 | -2 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 62% | 329 | 299 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 86 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 233 | 296 | 379 | 675 | 146 | 291 | 26 | 8 | 300 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 63% | 325 | 296 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 86 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 231 | 293 | 372 | 665 | 142 | 289 | 26 | 7 | 297 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB CTX | SF | 64% | 182 | 166 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 288 | 363 | 651 | 136 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 291 | 87 | -3 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1732 | 1576 | 370 | 59 | 6 | 52 | 128 | 457 | 11 | 36 | 10 | 235 | 297 | 379 | 676 | 144 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 301 | 97 | -11 | +3 | -4 | +8 | +38 | 3.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 139 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 48 | 172 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 235 | 297 | 381 | 677 | 146 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 301 | 97 | -4 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4687 | 4255 | 1033 | 163 | 28 | 153 | 361 | 1274 | 31 | 120 | 31 | 243 | 307 | 402 | 709 | 159 | 308 | 27 | 8 | 312 | 97 | -19 | +7 | -7 | +13 | +70 | 6.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 144 | 23 | 4 | 21 | 50 | 177 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 244 | 307 | 403 | 711 | 159 | 311 | 27 | 8 | 312 | 97 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 315 PAwOBA .366 → .314 (−52)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 22.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 5.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 7.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .366 → .314; ISO .245 → .195; BABIP .306 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 234 PAwOBA .395 → .343 (−52)K% 18.8% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 23.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×1.048 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .395 → .343; ISO .225 → .180; BABIP .349 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 335 PAwOBA .396 → .333 (−62)K% 22.1% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.09% | ÷1.070 | ×1.350 | — | — | 27.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.03% | ÷0.950 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.40% | ÷1.011 | ×0.910 | ×1.029 | ×0.998 | 25.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.73% | ÷1.048 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×0.998 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.88% | ÷0.909 | ×0.820 | ×1.029 | ×0.998 | 2.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.81% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 4.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 82, K 114, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .396 → .333; ISO .199 → .167; BABIP .385 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 187 PAwOBA .309 → .248 (−62)K% 24.1% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.06% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.16% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 21.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 1.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .309 → .248; ISO .168 → .114; BABIP .272 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASan Jose Giants · 226 PAwOBA .441 → .357 (−84)K% 23.9% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.89% | ÷0.957 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.16% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | — | 10.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.19% | ÷0.961 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 25.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 7.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 4.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.56% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 91, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .441 → .357; ISO .280 → .222; BABIP .421 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Giants · 37 PAwOBA .430 → .271 (−159)K% 29.7% → 42.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.997 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.062 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 9.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 23.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.927 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 7.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.178 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 6.46% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .430 → .271; ISO .258 → .154; BABIP .444 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Giants Orange · 58 PAwOBA .376 → .254 (−122)K% 19.0% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.97% | ÷1.036 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.52% | ÷1.022 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 9.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.107 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.377 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.47% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 175, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .254; ISO .184 → .117; BABIP .351 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .