Luke Dickerson

SS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 197 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

APROSPECTFG #333MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP49ETA2029FG ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	AWSH	333	.204/.312/.319	5	21	30	—	.149/.236/.230
2025	19	ROKWSH	26	.273/.385/.409	1	1	57	—	.208/.269/.333
2026	20	A+WSH	96	.136/.271/.173	0	7	-16	—	.092/.177/.115
2026	20	AWSH	431	.238/.406/.443	13	19	80	—	.181/.310/.329
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBWSH	637	.165/.273/.275	11	18	59	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBWSH	196	.174/.281/.297	4	6	67	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBWSH	289	.181/.287/.318	7	8	74	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Chase%97

BB%81

Speed74

wRC+5

wOBA4

ISO4

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsKyren Paris (age 21) · Joshua Báez (age 21) · Cameron Cauley (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.164 / .271 / .272

PA320

HR6

SB9

K%41

BB%12

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED66

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$5M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	333	285	58	14	2	5	41	84	4	21	5	204	312	319	631	116	266	25	12	290	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	26	22	6	0	0	1	4	4	0	1	1	273	385	409	794	136	294	15	15	361	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	96	81	11	3	0	0	15	42	0	7	0	136	271	173	444	37	282	44	16	225	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	431	332	79	19	5	13	91	117	3	19	7	238	406	443	849	205	319	27	21	379	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	333	296	44	10	1	4	30	118	4	21	5	149	236	230	466	81	224	35	9	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	26	24	5	0	0	1	2	6	0	1	1	208	269	333	603	125	248	23	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	96	87	8	2	0	0	9	55	0	7	0	92	177	115	292	23	245	57	9	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	431	359	65	15	4	10	64	159	3	19	7	181	310	329	639	148	271	37	15	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	359	320	49	10	1	4	32	124	4	22	6	153	239	228	467	75	231	35	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	359	307	64	14	2	6	45	88	4	22	6	208	317	326	643	117	269	25	13	295	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	527	446	72	17	4	10	73	214	3	26	7	161	284	285	568	123	273	41	14	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	527	413	90	22	5	13	106	159	3	26	7	218	381	390	771	172	313	30	20	351	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	359	320	49	10	1	4	32	124	4	22	6	153	239	228	467	75	226	35	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	527	446	72	17	4	10	73	214	3	26	7	161	284	285	568	123	266	41	14	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	359	320	49	10	1	4	32	124	4	22	6	153	239	228	467	75	226	35	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	527	446	72	17	4	10	73	214	3	26	7	161	284	285	568	123	266	41	14	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	637	550	91	20	4	11	78	259	4	18	5	165	273	275	548	110	280	41	12	255	59	-31	+2	-4	+7	+14	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	569	491	85	18	3	12	69	224	4	17	4	174	281	300	581	126	282	39	12	268	67	-22	+2	-3	+6	+12	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	597	516	94	19	4	15	72	228	4	17	4	182	288	321	608	138	284	38	12	278	74	-18	+2	-2	+6	+13	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	615	531	100	20	4	17	74	229	5	18	4	188	292	335	627	147	286	37	12	285	79	-15	+2	-1	+7	+13	0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	627	543	105	21	4	18	74	228	5	18	4	193	295	344	640	152	286	36	12	290	82	-13	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	634	550	108	21	4	19	74	226	5	18	4	196	297	350	647	154	287	36	12	293	84	-12	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	634	549	108	21	4	19	75	227	5	17	4	195	296	348	644	153	286	36	12	291	83	-13	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	59%	629	546	105	21	3	18	74	227	4	16	4	193	294	343	637	150	285	36	12	289	82	-14	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61%	619	538	102	20	3	17	72	225	4	14	4	191	291	337	628	146	284	36	12	285	79	-15	+1	-2	+7	+13	0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	WSH	62%	609	529	99	20	3	16	71	223	4	13	4	188	288	329	618	142	282	37	12	281	76	-17	+1	-3	+7	+13	0.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	WSH	63%	595	517	95	19	3	15	69	220	4	10	4	184	284	320	604	136	278	37	12	275	73	-19	+0	-4	+6	+13	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	196	169	29	6	1	4	24	77	1	6	1	174	281	297	578	124	281	39	12	267	67	-8	+1	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	289	250	44	9	1	7	35	110	2	8	2	181	287	318	605	137	283	38	12	277	74	-9	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	324	280	53	11	2	9	39	120	2	9	2	188	292	333	624	145	285	37	12	284	79	-8	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	343	296	58	12	2	10	41	125	3	10	2	192	295	342	637	150	285	36	12	289	82	-7	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	353	306	60	12	2	10	41	126	3	10	2	195	297	348	645	153	286	36	12	292	84	-7	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	349	302	59	12	2	10	41	125	3	10	2	194	296	345	641	151	285	36	12	290	83	-7	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	59%	370	321	63	13	2	11	43	133	3	9	2	192	294	341	635	149	284	36	12	288	82	-8	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	61%	376	326	62	13	2	10	44	137	3	9	2	190	291	335	626	145	283	36	12	284	79	-9	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	WSH	62%	378	329	61	12	2	10	44	139	2	8	2	187	288	328	615	140	281	37	12	280	76	-11	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	WSH	63%	375	327	61	12	2	10	43	139	2	6	3	183	283	318	602	135	278	37	11	275	73	-12	+0	-2	+4	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3353	2906	550	112	18	91	395	1231	24	85	20	189	291	334	626	145	287	37	12	283	74	-86	+9	-10	+36	+73	2.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	107	22	3	18	77	239	5	16	4	190	293	336	629	146	288	37	12	283	74	-17	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	7334	6352	1168	237	42	186	868	2725	53	215	55	184	287	322	609	138	282	37	12	278	74	-175	+17	-21	+69	+140	3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	103	21	4	16	77	242	5	19	5	183	287	320	607	137	282	37	12	278	74	-18	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Frankie Crosetti'32-'48 * career totals — 15 seasons, 7,273 PA	11.0	7,273	98	113	226*	314*	363*	+73	-6	16.5	16.3
/162	664	9	10	+6.7	-0.5	1.5	pk7: 16
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#4Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	5.5	3,673	97	94	188	287	331	+39	-4	4.9	4.7
/162	664	18	17	+7.1	-0.7	0.9	pk7: 5
#5Monte Cross'01-'07 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	9	138	213*	306*	344*	+36	-30	2.8	2.8
/162	664	2	27	+7.1	-6.0	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Enzo Hernandez'71-'78 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,612 PA	3.9	2,612	2	129	222*	281*	294*	+28	+4	1.6	1.9
/162	664	1	33	+7.0	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Dickerson (OGILVIE)	21	37→43	48→52	67→66	50	164/271/272	109	280	6	9	41%	12%	59	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyren Paris 2023 · AA	21	44→49	45	60	43	203/291/336	132	329	12	27	38%	9%	79	-0.2	201/289/328	127	317	13	30	37%	10%	77	-0.3	189/282/319	130	294	14	35	37%	10%	71	-0.5
✕Joshua Báez 2024 · A	21	40→48	42→55	58→60	36	172/260/282	110	341	9	22	48%	8%	56	-1.9	206/280/356	150	315	18	30	38%	8%	80	-0.2	211/281/393	182	287	24	33	34%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Cameron Cauley 2024 · A	21	41→48	42→50	59→60	38	192/256/294	102	318	9	28	40%	8%	56	-1.9	207/261/343	136	303	14	27	34%	7%	68	-1.0	212/268/359	147	288	15	31	31%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	41→49	40	53→60	46	191/289/283	92	297	8	16	35%	10%	67	-1.1	200/301/282	82	297	6	18	31%	11%	71	-0.8	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	44→52	41→45	59→55	40	211/262/313	103	297	7	20	30%	6%	61	-1.5	227/284/341	114	305	9	18	27%	7%	76	-0.4	229/290/345	116	300	9	18	25%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Brice Matthews 2024 · A	22	45	44→50	54→60	46	211/306/329	118	322	12	22	35%	10%	84	+0.1	217/298/371	154	326	18	30	36%	9%	90	+0.6	208/288/365	156	305	19	33	36%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→49	42→50	57→50	43	224/279/341	116	300	8	15	27%	6%	74	-0.5	220/277/337	117	289	10	12	26%	6%	73	-0.6	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Kahlil Watson 2024 · A	21	38→43	45→50	55	40	189/266/313	124	301	13	20	39%	8%	65	-1.2	204/277/348	144	305	16	20	36%	8%	77	-0.3	203/280/353	149	296	17	24	35%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Shane Sasaki 2022 · A	22	44→54	38→45	58→60	39	202/262/281	79	326	6	22	38%	7%	55	-2.0	232/296/337	105	342	9	27	32%	8%	80	-0.1	233/300/333	100	341	8	32	32%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	42→48	45→50	53→55	40	206/268/336	130	291	12	19	32%	6%	70	-0.8	209/279/335	126	306	11	17	33%	7%	74	-0.5	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→42	42→50	54→55	35	186/247/286	100	284	10	12	37%	5%	51	-2.2	197/249/316	119	284	14	16	34%	5%	59	-1.7	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Clay Fuller 2008 · A	21	46	40→45	56→55	41	210/281/303	93	325	6	19	35%	7%	68	-1.0	209/288/319	110	304	9	19	32%	8%	74	-0.6	203/283/315	112	289	10	21	31%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	40→38	45→50	54→50	38	199/264/327	128	286	12	13	34%	6%	67	-1.1	211/271/364	153	307	18	14	36%	6%	78	-0.3	204/267/368	165	294	22	15	37%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Carlos Jimenez 2024 · A	21	39→44	40→50	52→55	44	186/271/278	93	294	7	15	36%	9%	59	-1.7	222/298/356	134	324	13	17	33%	9%	86	+0.3	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Anthony Alford 2015 · A	21	46→52	42→45	56→55	38	209/272/313	103	345	10	15	40%	7%	66	-1.1	219/297/313	94	343	7	18	34%	9%	76	-0.4	220/302/313	92	336	7	21	33%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Victor Arias 2024 · A	20	41→50	40→45	55→50	48	193/289/289	97	300	7	16	35%	11%	68	-1.0	227/296/340	113	318	9	15	29%	8%	81	-0.1	226/289/343	117	310	10	15	29%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Junior Perez 2022 · A	21	39→40	43→50	54→55	37	175/248/285	110	332	10	17	46%	8%	51	-2.2	185/257/295	110	323	11	24	42%	8%	57	-1.8	172/245/318	146	265	16	25	39%	8%	56	-1.4
✕Miguel Hiraldo 2023 · A	22	41→46	43→45	56→55	38	200/251/308	108	302	10	21	36%	6%	57	-1.8	216/263/319	103	337	10	20	37%	5%	63	-1.3	221/269/319	98	346	9	22	37%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Jonathan Galvez 2012 · A	21	47→51	46→50	53→55	40	227/286/359	132	330	13	19	34%	7%	82	-0.0	241/294/357	116	335	10	17	29%	6%	84	+0.1	244/299/355	111	331	9	15	27%	6%	83	+0.0

Luke Dickerson

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps