Brendan Morse prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Brendan Morse P ACL Rangers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%20.2%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	2	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	2	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	2	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.60	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	5	34	176	29	20	7	38%	2.6	11.2%	14.2%	-3.0%	5.4%	9.44	6.89	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	5	34	176	29	20	7	38%	2.6	11.2%	14.2%	-3.0%	5.4%	9.44	6.89	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	13	5	34	176	29	20	7	38%	2.6	16.5%	11.4%	5.1%	4.0%	9.44	5.81	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	3.1%	5.03	5.03	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	31	0	32	136	29	15	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.74	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	15	0	16	68	14	8	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.36	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	89	25	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.36	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		15	5	36	183	21	26	9	33%	2.4	11.3%	14.2%	-2.9%	5.2%	8.92	6.77	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	28	200	1007	114	143	52	33%	2.4	11.3%	14.2%	-2.9%	5.2%	8.92	6.77	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Morse (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	20.2%	12.4%	3.1%	—	4.74	21.3%	10.2%	32	-0.29	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	88
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	85
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	80
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	80
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	80
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	79
Daniel Hudson R 2009 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	3.7%	.232	3.42	19.4%	13.6%	363	-1.64	1.68	850	79
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	79
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	79
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	78
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	78
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	78
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	78
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.9%	11.7%	1.17	4.91
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43