Owen Hall — OGILVIE

Owen Hall P FCL Tigers

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%22.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4050

CTRL4045

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	4	9	39	9	9	1	100%	2.2	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	2.6%	7.00	5.48	—
2025	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	4	9	39	9	9	1	100%	2.2	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	2.6%	7.00	5.48	—
2025	19	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	4	9	39	9	9	1	100%	2.2	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	2.6%	7.00	5.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	19	9	56	258	65	32	8	47%	3.0	17.7%	15.2%	2.5%	4.3%	6.07	5.90	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	19	9	56	258	65	32	8	47%	3.0	17.7%	15.2%	2.5%	4.3%	6.07	5.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	DET	12	9	40	182	42	21	7	75%	3.3	23.1%	11.5%	11.5%	3.8%	5.90	4.72	—
2026	20	A RAW	DET	7	0	17	76	23	11	1	0%	2.4	30.3%	14.5%	15.8%	1.3%	6.48	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	58	245	57	29	7	100%	5.3	23.1%	12.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	61	257	62	28	7	100%	5.5	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.42	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	63	267	66	27	8	100%	5.3	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.26	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	65	274	69	27	8	100%	5.4	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	2.8%	4.23	4.14	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	66	277	71	27	8	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.07	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	66	277	72	26	8	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.6%	16.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.05	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	273	70	26	8	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	2.9%	4.09	4.09	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	29	122	28	15	3	100%	5.8	23.1%	12.0%	11.1%	2.8%	4.67	4.60	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	44	186	45	20	5	100%	5.5	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.35	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	53	224	55	23	6	100%	5.3	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.7%	4.30	4.19	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	62	24	7	100%	5.8	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.07	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	60	253	65	24	7	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.6%	16.0%	2.7%	4.07	4.00	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	61	258	67	25	7	100%	6.1	25.8%	9.6%	16.3%	2.7%	4.02	3.98	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	61	258	67	25	7	100%	6.1	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	2.7%	4.02	4.02	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	65	367	1548	389	156	42	100%	5.6	25.1%	10.1%	15.0%	2.7%	4.20	3.75	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	212	85	23	100%	5.7	25.1%	10.1%	15.0%	2.7%	4.20	3.75	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		23	13	65	297	55	48	12	57%	2.8	18.4%	16.2%	2.1%	4.1%	6.20	5.84	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	40	200	909	167	148	37	57%	2.8	18.4%	16.2%	2.1%	4.1%	6.20	5.84	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Hall (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	22.6%	13.2%	3.0%	—	4.44	24.0%	13.0%	182	-0.46	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	88
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	85
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	85
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	83
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	82
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	81
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	80
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.30	18.5%	7.5%	314	+0.31	3.70	466	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	79
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	79
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	79
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	79
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	79
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	79
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	79
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	78
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	78
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	60	24.8%	10.5%	1.11	4.35
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68