Owen Hall

P FCL Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#947ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ADET	4	4	9	7.00	5.54	23.1%	23.1%	—	K 23.1% · BB 23.1% · FIP 5.48
2026	20	MIX2 levels	19	9	56	6.07	4.34	25.2%	12.4%	—	K 17.7% · BB 15.2% · FIP 5.90
2027PROJ	21	MLBDET	—	—	0	5.32	5.32	20.8%	15.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBDET	4	4	22	4.97	4.85	22.2%	13.2%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBDET	6	6	33	4.73	4.60	23.1%	11.9%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKobe Robinson (age 21) · Juan Mendez (age 22) · Jake Lyons (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%20.8%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	4	9	39	9	9	1	100%	2.2	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	2.6%	7.00	5.48	—
2025	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	4	9	39	9	9	1	100%	2.2	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	2.6%	7.00	5.48	—
2025	19	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	4	4	9	39	9	9	1	100%	2.2	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	2.6%	7.00	5.54	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	9	56	258	65	32	8	47%	3.0	17.7%	15.2%	2.5%	4.3%	6.07	5.90	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	9	56	258	65	32	8	47%	3.0	17.7%	15.2%	2.5%	4.3%	6.07	5.90	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	9	56	258	65	32	8	47%	3.0	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	3.1%	6.07	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	15.2%	5.7%	3.1%	5.32	5.32	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	45	190	42	25	6	100%	5.6	22.2%	13.2%	9.0%	3.0%	5.04	4.92	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	45	190	44	23	6	100%	5.6	23.1%	11.9%	11.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.67	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	45	190	45	21	6	100%	5.6	23.6%	11.1%	12.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.50	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	43	182	44	19	5	100%	6.2	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.40	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	43	183	44	19	5	100%	6.2	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	4.37	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	42	179	43	19	5	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.41	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	22	93	21	12	3	100%	5.5	22.2%	13.2%	9.0%	2.9%	4.97	4.85	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	33	139	32	17	4	100%	5.5	23.1%	11.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.73	4.60	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	37	156	37	17	4	100%	5.3	23.6%	11.1%	12.5%	2.8%	4.54	4.43	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	39	17	4	100%	6.3	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	2.8%	4.41	4.33	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	40	169	41	18	5	100%	5.7	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	2.8%	4.35	4.30	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	39	165	40	18	5	100%	6.5	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	2.8%	4.35	4.34	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	210	885	209	99	25	100%	5.8	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.06	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	200	95	24	100%	5.7	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52	4.06	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		23	13	65	297	55	48	12	57%	2.8	18.4%	16.2%	2.1%	4.1%	6.20	5.84	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	40	200	909	167	148	37	57%	2.8	18.4%	16.2%	2.1%	4.1%	6.20	5.84	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Tigers · 40 IPFIP 4.72 → 6.56 (+1.83)K% 23.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.680	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.250	14.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.38%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 6.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 17 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.31 (+1.21)K% 30.3% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.26%	—	×0.740	22.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.47%	—	×1.180	17.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 9 IPFIP 5.48 → 7.23 (+1.74)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.740	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.08%	—	×1.180	27.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.864	×1.300	3.86%

Result: FIP 5.48 → 7.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Hall (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.70	23.0%	10.9%	135	-0.62	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	87
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	85
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	85
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	85
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	84
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	83
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	83
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	82
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	81
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	80
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	80
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	44	23.2%	11.9%	1.14	4.73
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*