Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 61.5% | 15.4% | 46.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.15 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rangers | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 61.5% | 15.4% | 46.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 24 | 8 | 71 | 321 | 92 | 29 | 2 | 33% | 2.9 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 0.8% | 4.46 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 24 | 8 | 71 | 321 | 92 | 29 | 2 | 33% | 2.9 | 28.7% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 0.6% | 4.46 | 2.10 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 16 | 77 | 318 | 94 | 34 | 5 | 73% | 3.5 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 2.34 | 3.63 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 16 | 77 | 318 | 94 | 34 | 5 | 73% | 3.5 | 29.6% | 10.7% | 18.9% | 1.6% | 2.34 | 2.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 21 | 9 | 48 | 215 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 43% | 2.3 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 6.56 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 65 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 115 | 499 | 122 | 59 | 14 | — | — | 24.4% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 5.41 | 4.75 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.19 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 66 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 29 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 45 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 0 | 129 | 543 | 127 | 61 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.04 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 95 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 33 | 199 | 867 | 196 | 101 | 16 | 47% | 2.8 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | 4.07 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 33 | 200 | 871 | 197 | 101 | 17 | 47% | 2.8 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | 4.07 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Trentadue (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 22.8% | 12.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.42 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 203 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 89 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 88 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.28 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .206 | 4.45 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 193 | 83 |
| Angel Perdomo L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.47 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 1.4% | .315 | 4.10 | 32.7% | 17.7% | 100 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 540 | 82 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 82 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 80 |
| Tommy Vail L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 80 |
| Nick Sando L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.09 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .251 | 2.81 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 21 | -1.28 | 2.81 | 174 | 79 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 78 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.14 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 4.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.67 | 288 | 76 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 3.54 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 62 | -1.69 | 3.54 | 186 | 76 |
| Larson Kindreich L 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.39 | 21.5% | 18.8% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.71 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 79 | -0.68 | 4.15 | 214 | 75 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 75 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .338 | 4.62 | 12.7% | 2.7% | 41 | -0.12 | 4.27 | 156 | 74 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 74 |
| Jordan Woods L 2024 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 74 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 74 |
| Carson Palmquist L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.62 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | .292 | 4.42 | 16.2% | 1.5% | 61 | -0.20 | 4.28 | 383 | 74 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.43 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .266 | 6.06 | 11.5% | -1.2% | 56 | +2.63 | 3.43 | 145 | 74 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.67 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 208 | +0.95 | 2.03 | 402 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 1.04 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |