Dustin Dickerson

Dustin DickersonSS Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs AA HR -5%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2028

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .286 / .271

PA320

HR4

SB12

K%28

BB%10

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

30→30

SPD

55→55

EYE

58↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$-0.9M	-$4M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	122	106	21	2	0	1	12	26	3	1	0	.198	.298	.245	.543	.047	.250	21	10	.245	46	-7	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
2024	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	434	371	69	6	0	2	51	124	5	9	5	.186	.293	.218	.511	.032	.270	29	12	.239	41	-29	-0	+0	+5	+12	-1.2
2025	24	AA	2 teams	452	398	71	8	1	4	44	130	5	21	8	.178	.268	.234	.502	.055	.251	29	10	.232	36	-33	+1	+0	+5	+13	-1.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	65	58	9	2	1	1	7	25	0	4	0	.155	.246	.276	.522	.121	.250	38	11	.238	40	-4	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	25	MLB	KC	255	225	43	6	1	3	26	75	2	8	2	.191	.281	.267	.547	.076	.272	29	10	.258	56	-13	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
TOT	25	MLB	KC	320	283	52	8	2	4	33	100	2	12	2	.184	.274	.269	.542	.085	.267	31	10	.254	53	-17	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	KC	365	320	66	10	2	6	39	88	3	10	3	.206	.298	.306	.605	.100	.262	24	11	.276	70	-12	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2028	27	MLB 26%	KC	388	340	71	11	2	6	41	93	4	10	3	.209	.301	.306	.607	.097	.265	24	11	.280	73	-12	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.4
2029	28	MLB 38%	KC	401	351	74	12	2	7	43	97	4	10	2	.211	.304	.316	.620	.105	.266	24	11	.281	73	-12	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.4
2030	29	MLB 47%	KC	400	351	74	12	2	7	42	98	4	9	2	.211	.302	.316	.619	.105	.266	24	10	.280	73	-12	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.3
2031	30	MLB 56%	KC	398	349	73	12	2	7	42	98	4	8	2	.209	.301	.315	.616	.106	.264	25	11	.277	70	-13	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.1
2032	31	MLB 73%	KC	387	340	68	11	1	6	41	97	3	7	1	.200	.292	.291	.583	.091	.263	25	11	.273	67	-14	+1	-3	+4	+11	-0.1
2033	32	MLB 91%	KC	370	325	64	10	1	5	39	95	3	6	1	.197	.289	.280	.569	.083	.261	26	11	.269	64	-15	+1	-4	+4	+10	-0.3
2034	33	MLB	KC	341	299	59	9	1	5	36	90	3	5	0	.197	.290	.284	.574	.087	.259	26	11	.264	60	-15	+1	-4	+4	+10	-0.5
2035	34	MLB	KC	298	263	51	8	1	4	31	81	2	4	0	.194	.284	.278	.561	.084	.258	27	10	.258	55	-15	+1	-5	+3	+8	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4611	4038	804	117	16	63	487	1192	45	108	29	.199	.292	.283	.575	.084	.264	26	11	.265	61	-204	+10	-20	+49	+131	-3.4
/ 162G	—			650	569	113	16	2	9	69	168	6	15	4	.199	.292	.281	.573	.083	.263	26	11	.265	61	-29	+1	-3	+7	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	122	103	23	2	0	1	15	21	3	1	0	.223	.339	.272	.611	.049	.268	17	12	.290	80	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2024	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	434	352	79	9	0	2	69	100	5	9	5	.224	.358	.267	.625	.043	.304	23	16	.297	86	-7	-0	—	—	+12	0.5
2025	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	46	38	12	2	0	0	6	5	1	1	0	.316	.422	.368	.791	.053	.353	11	13	.360	133	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	406	338	71	7	1	5	60	98	4	20	8	.210	.336	.281	.617	.071	.278	24	15	.291	81	-9	+1	—	—	+12	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dustin Dickerson (OGILVIE)	25	35	30	55	60	.198/.286/.271	.073	.276	4	8	28%	10%	59	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Colt Sedbrook 2010 · AA	25	45→43	39→30	51→50	48	.213/.304/.293	.080	.273	6	14	23%	8%	72	-0.2	.204/.300/.275	.071	.261	4	13	22%	8%	66	-0.6	.178/.291/.223	.045	.231	2	12	21%	9%	48	-1.1
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	41	38→40	48→50	43	.200/.261/.271	.071	.264	6	13	26%	6%	46	-2.0	.216/.288/.312	.096	.280	10	15	25%	8%	69	-0.4	.201/.280/.289	.088	.259	11	18	25%	9%	56	-0.6
✕Nick Natoli 2013 · AA	25	42	37→30	52→50	50	.198/.279/.276	.078	.266	4	10	26%	9%	56	-1.3	.182/.257/.251	.069	.265	4	11	30%	8%	40	-2.4	.150/.230/.199	.049	.225	1	11	31%	8%	13	-2.8
✕Luke Williams 2022 · MLB	25	44→45	41→45	52→60	44	.215/.274/.314	.099	.284	7	20	26%	7%	62	-0.9	.232/.290/.343	.111	.318	10	32	28%	7%	77	+0.1	.227/.288/.355	.128	.309	13	42	29%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	37	39→40	49→50	44	.183/.260/.264	.081	.271	8	14	33%	9%	45	-2.1	.205/.286/.296	.091	.292	7	13	29%	9%	63	-0.8	.211/.301/.305	.094	.293	5	13	27%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2011 · AAA	25	42	40	50	44	.202/.271/.294	.092	.264	7	9	25%	7%	57	-1.2	.217/.263/.321	.104	.274	12	13	25%	5%	59	-1.1	.219/.256/.308	.088	.269	11	12	23%	4%	49	-0.6
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2023 · AAA	25	42→43	42→40	53→50	47	.203/.276/.304	.102	.285	9	12	31%	9%	61	-1.0	.206/.288/.308	.102	.305	9	15	32%	10%	68	-0.5	.196/.288/.293	.097	.294	9	17	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	42	35→30	53→50	41	.199/.256/.254	.055	.291	2	14	31%	6%	38	-2.6	.218/.278/.286	.068	.315	3	12	29%	7%	56	-1.3	.227/.292/.289	.061	.331	2	11	29%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	39	38→30	51→45	43	.191/.252/.268	.077	.262	6	6	28%	7%	41	-2.3	.200/.263/.277	.077	.269	6	6	26%	7%	48	-1.9	.195/.262/.257	.062	.254	5	5	23%	7%	40	-1.1
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	41	40→45	53→55	40	.196/.256/.291	.095	.278	6	15	30%	6%	50	-1.8	.190/.266/.302	.112	.286	11	16	35%	8%	57	-1.2	.176/.260/.302	.126	.275	14	16	39%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Drew Jackson 2018 · AA	25	43→45	40→45	48→55	43	.210/.276/.302	.092	.279	8	14	27%	6%	61	-1.0	.200/.273/.313	.113	.281	12	18	31%	7%	63	-0.8	.189/.276/.312	.123	.270	14	26	33%	8%	62	-0.5
✕Steven Baron 2016 · AAA	25	43	38→45	51→50	40	.208/.252/.292	.085	.285	5	9	28%	5%	46	-2.0	.227/.285/.303	.076	.312	6	6	27%	7%	64	-0.8	.220/.281/.276	.057	.306	5	2	28%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Matt Scheffler 2023 · AA	25	45	40	51→50	48	.214/.297/.308	.094	.299	8	11	29%	9%	72	-0.2	.203/.288/.278	.075	.288	5	13	29%	9%	60	-1.0	.167/.260/.209	.042	.244	2	14	29%	8%	30	-1.4
✕Ryan Dent 2014 · AAA	25	43→42	38→40	47→50	42	.210/.261/.280	.071	.285	6	13	28%	6%	47	-1.9	.208/.262/.299	.091	.291	7	11	29%	6%	53	-1.5	.204/.257/.301	.097	.287	6	9	30%	5%	50	-1.1
✕Tyler Saladino 2014 · AAA	25	43→46	41→45	54→55	47	.208/.278/.305	.098	.271	8	22	26%	8%	63	-0.9	.235/.288/.340	.105	.289	9	23	21%	6%	75	-0.0	.253/.299/.369	.116	.300	11	25	19%	5%	84	+0.4
✕Kevin Heller 2015 · AA	25	42→47	41→40	49→50	42	.200/.278/.297	.097	.295	8	11	33%	7%	61	-1.0	.215/.294/.319	.104	.320	9	11	33%	7%	73	-0.1	.216/.299/.316	.100	.327	10	12	34%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Bryan Holaday 2013 · AAA	25	43	40→45	49→40	42	.208/.264/.296	.088	.269	7	6	25%	6%	53	-1.5	.220/.265/.310	.090	.273	7	5	21%	5%	57	-1.2	.217/.286/.341	.124	.252	13	2	19%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Matt Rudick 2023 · AAA	25	42→43	39→45	54→50	48	.199/.280/.291	.091	.249	5	15	21%	8%	60	-1.0	.215/.301/.334	.119	.270	11	14	23%	9%	80	+0.4	.216/.307/.343	.128	.271	13	14	24%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Corey Toups 2018 · AAA	25	44→47	43→45	55→50	40	.212/.271/.329	.117	.297	10	17	31%	6%	65	-0.7	.203/.266/.307	.104	.321	10	15	37%	7%	58	-1.2	.177/.247/.258	.081	.300	9	19	41%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Jimmy Herron 2022 · AA	26	40→45	40→45	50→55	47	.193/.269/.283	.090	.257	7	16	26%	8%	53	-1.5	.222/.297/.356	.134	.276	15	20	24%	8%	84	+0.6	.218/.294/.351	.132	.264	15	24	23%	8%	78	+0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)