Coleman Picard — OGILVIE

Coleman Picard P Columbia Fireflies

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%21.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	2	0	3	13	5	3	0	0%	1.5	38.5%	23.1%	15.4%	0.0%	3.00	2.78	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	2	0	3	13	5	3	0	0%	1.5	38.5%	23.1%	15.4%	0.0%	3.00	2.78	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	2	0	3	13	5	3	0	0%	1.5	38.5%	23.1%	15.4%	0.0%	3.00	2.77	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	0	5	19	10	3	1	0%	1.6	52.6%	15.8%	36.8%	5.3%	3.86	3.54	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	0	5	19	10	3	1	0%	1.6	52.6%	15.8%	36.8%	5.3%	3.86	3.54	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	3	0	5	19	10	3	1	0%	1.6	52.6%	15.8%	36.8%	5.3%	3.86	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	8	67	268	59	19	7	36%	3.0	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	4.6%	2.97	5.30	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	22	8	67	268	59	19	7	36%	3.0	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	4.6%	2.97	5.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	KC	2	0	2	10	4	1	0	0%	1.1	40.0%	10.0%	30.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	24	A RAW	KC	12	8	50	199	41	13	7	67%	4.1	20.6%	6.5%	14.1%	3.5%	3.26	4.12	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	KC	7	0	11	47	9	5	0	0%	1.5	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	0.0%	3.38	2.83	—
2026	24	AA RAW	KC	1	0	4	12	5	0	0	0%	4.0	41.7%	0.0%	41.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	279	62	24	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.35	4.33	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	279	63	24	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.32	4.31	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	275	62	24	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.33	4.34	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	266	60	23	8	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.39	4.43	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	27	0	28	118	26	10	4	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.35	4.33	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	42	0	44	186	42	16	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	3.0%	4.32	4.31	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	48	0	50	211	48	18	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.1%	4.33	4.34	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	53	224	50	20	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.39	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	175	740	166	64	23	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.1%	4.35	3.98	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	73	26	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.1%	4.35	3.98	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		27	8	74	300	56	27	13	30%	2.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	4.4%	3.03	5.08	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	22	200	807	150	72	36	30%	2.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	4.4%	3.03	5.08	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Coleman Picard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	21.7%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.33	22.4%	13.9%	197	-0.07	—	—	—
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	88
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	81
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	81
Jake Lyons R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	24	SW	4.13	20.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	174	79
T.J. Weir R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	20.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.319	3.43	19.0%	9.6%	190	-0.54	3.15	349	79
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	79
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	79
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	79
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.88	21.5%	9.9%	274	-0.11	4.06	464	77
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	77
Alex Valverde R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SW	3.62	23.2%	9.3%	2.4%	.321	5.66	17.9%	6.8%	166	+2.04	3.62	423	77
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	77
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	77
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	76
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	76
Wilmer Rios R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	23	SW	4.95	16.3%	5.8%	4.5%	.265	5.25	16.2%	12.3%	80	+0.30	2.81	156	75
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	59	22.4%	8.6%	1.18	4.35
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47