Alex Valverde — OGILVIE

Alex Valverde P Arkansas Travelers

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%18.2%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	4	3	11	50	11	2	1	75%	2.8	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	2.8%	3.18	4.01	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	4	3	11	50	11	2	1	75%	2.8	22.0%	4.0%	18.0%	2.0%	3.18	2.84	—
2018	21	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	24	21	109	501	79	57	15	88%	4.5	11.7%	13.4%	-1.8%	3.8%	4.56	5.88	—
2018	21	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	24	21	109	501	79	57	15	88%	4.5	15.8%	11.4%	4.4%	3.0%	4.56	5.01	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	34	0	65	287	65	21	11	0%	1.9	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	5.1%	4.29	5.50	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	34	0	65	287	65	21	11	0%	1.9	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.8%	4.29	4.27	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	30	10	72	321	92	27	6	33%	2.4	23.2%	9.3%	14.0%	2.4%	4.88	3.62	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	30	10	72	321	92	27	6	33%	2.4	28.7%	8.4%	20.2%	1.9%	4.88	2.75	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	23	17	87	385	98	37	18	74%	3.8	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	6.3%	5.79	6.14	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	23	17	87	385	98	37	18	74%	3.8	25.5%	9.6%	15.8%	4.7%	5.79	4.81	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	79	362	66	42	10	71%	3.3	14.9%	11.7%	3.2%	3.3%	5.58	5.13	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	79	362	66	42	10	71%	3.3	14.9%	11.7%	3.2%	3.3%	5.58	5.13	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	79	362	66	42	10	71%	3.3	18.2%	11.6%	6.6%	2.8%	5.58	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	48	0	51	215	40	23	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.8%	7.7%	3.2%	5.00	5.07	-0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	45	0	48	201	37	22	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.0%	7.4%	3.5%	5.11	5.21	-0.4
2029	32	MLB MLE	NYM	42	0	44	185	34	21	7	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.3%	6.9%	3.7%	5.26	5.39	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	15	0	16	68	12	7	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.8%	7.7%	3.2%	5.00	5.07	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	23	0	24	101	19	11	3	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.0%	7.4%	3.5%	5.11	5.21	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	NYM	28	0	29	122	22	14	5	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.3%	6.9%	3.7%	5.26	5.39	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	291	53	32	10	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.5%	5.15	4.88	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	93	29	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.1%	7.2%	3.5%	5.15	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		139	68	423	1906	324	207	79	49%	3.0	17.0%	10.8%	6.1%	4.1%	4.98	5.30	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	32	200	901	153	98	37	49%	3.0	17.0%	10.8%	6.1%	4.1%	4.98	5.30	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Valverde (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	18.2%	10.6%	3.1%	—	5.22	18.3%	7.3%	142	+0.26	—	—	—
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	76
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	76
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	76
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	75
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	74
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	73
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	72
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	72
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	72
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	72
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	72
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	72
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	72
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	71
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	70
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	70
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	70
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	18.3%	10.9%	1.29	5.07
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50