Xavier Rivas

P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP42ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX3 levels	19	18	85	3.37	3.12	31.3%	13.9%	—	K 23.2% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.59
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	19	106	5.28	4.59	29.9%	14.3%	—	K 24.5% · BB 14.7% · FIP 5.45
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	22	22	126	5.51	5.51	23.8%	16.5%	-0.9
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYY	10	10	60	5.36	5.34	24.0%	15.6%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	14	14	86	5.29	5.30	23.8%	15.1%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control41Command35FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 77%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Jimmy Robbins (age 25) · Dylan Carmouche (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%23.8%

BB%16.5%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4060

CTRL2540

CMD3535

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	85	361	113	50	6	95%	4.5	23.2%	16.4%	6.8%	2.5%	3.37	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	85	361	113	50	6	95%	4.5	23.2%	16.4%	6.8%	2.5%	3.37	4.59	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	85	361	113	50	6	95%	4.5	31.3%	13.9%	17.5%	1.7%	3.37	3.12	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	106	455	136	65	18	73%	4.1	24.5%	14.7%	9.8%	4.7%	5.28	5.45	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	106	455	136	65	18	73%	4.1	24.5%	14.7%	9.8%	4.7%	5.28	5.45	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	106	455	136	65	18	73%	4.1	29.9%	14.3%	15.6%	4.0%	5.28	4.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	22	22	126	532	127	88	19	100%	5.7	23.8%	16.5%	7.3%	3.5%	5.51	5.51	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	138	581	140	91	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	15.6%	8.4%	3.5%	5.36	5.34	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	136	573	137	86	20	100%	5.9	23.8%	15.1%	8.8%	3.5%	5.29	5.30	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	132	555	131	83	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	14.9%	8.8%	3.6%	5.29	5.33	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	126	530	124	79	20	100%	6.0	23.4%	14.9%	8.4%	3.7%	5.36	5.43	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	118	499	115	76	20	100%	5.9	23.0%	15.2%	7.8%	3.9%	5.51	5.61	-0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	60	253	61	40	9	100%	6.0	24.0%	15.6%	8.4%	3.5%	5.36	5.34	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	86	363	87	55	13	100%	6.1	23.8%	15.1%	8.8%	3.5%	5.29	5.30	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	99	418	99	62	15	100%	6.2	23.6%	14.9%	8.8%	3.6%	5.29	5.33	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	103	435	102	65	16	100%	6.1	23.4%	14.9%	8.4%	3.7%	5.36	5.43	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	101	426	98	65	17	100%	5.9	23.0%	15.2%	7.8%	3.9%	5.51	5.61	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	450	1898	446	286	69	100%	6.0	23.5%	15.1%	8.4%	3.7%	5.36	5.03	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	198	127	31	100%	6.0	23.5%	15.1%	8.4%	3.7%	5.36	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		45	37	191	816	195	126	30	82%	4.2	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	3.7%	4.43	5.07	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	39	200	854	204	132	32	82%	4.2	23.9%	15.4%	8.5%	3.7%	4.43	5.07	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Rivas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	23.8%	16.5%	3.5%	—	5.32	23.8%	8.6%	405	-0.19	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	75
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	73
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	73
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	73
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	72
Noah Dean L 2024 · 4.41 FIP	23	SP-	4.41	25.4%	18.4%	2.0%	.216	5.93	21.1%	1.3%	74	+1.52	4.41	217	69
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	69
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.58	20.9%	12.1%	174	-1.80	2.32	362	69
Mason Green L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP-	4.80	18.7%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	3.85	18.2%	6.4%	157	-0.95	3.68	450	69
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	68
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	68
Jacob Latz L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	23.6%	11.4%	3.7%	.299	4.47	23.9%	12.2%	160	-0.10	2.39	480	68
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	68
Marcelo Martinez L 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP-	5.73	20.2%	11.3%	5.3%	.287	6.79	11.9%	7.1%	21	+1.06	3.29	427	67
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	67
Conner Menez L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	26.5%	11.2%	4.2%	.279	4.09	21.4%	10.8%	78	-0.47	2.03	503	67
Amir Garrett L 2017 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP	5.33	18.7%	10.1%	4.6%	.302	3.60	30.3%	19.5%	137	-1.73	3.06	712	67
Trenton Wallace L 2024 · 5.16 FIP	25	SP	5.16	21.8%	11.8%	4.4%	.263	4.69	24.2%	10.2%	52	-0.47	2.87	286	67
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	129	23.6%	15.4%	1.40	5.38
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44