Alexander Meckley
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 240 lbs
A
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.62
FIP5.62
K%13.2%
BB%14.5%
K-BB%-1.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 3 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.8% | 16.7% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.45 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 3 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.8% | 16.7% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.45 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 102 | 453 | 89 | 49 | 4 | 96% | 4.4 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 4.13 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 102 | 453 | 89 | 49 | 4 | 96% | 4.4 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 0.9% | 4.13 | 3.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 17 | 15 | 69 | 311 | 60 | 48 | 3 | 88% | 4.1 | 14.5% | 18.0% | -3.5% | 1.2% | 4.80 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 36 | 40 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.2% | 14.5% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 5.62 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.2% | 14.5% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 5.62 | 5.62 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 134 | 585 | 96 | 88 | 10 | — | — | 16.4% | 15.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 5.20 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 48 | 41 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.4% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.37 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 74 | 314 | 53 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.8% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 5.17 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 74 | 314 | 55 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 54 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 6 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.4% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.37 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 35 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 5.17 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 43 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 46 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.5% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 45 | 265 | 1119 | 192 | 140 | 30 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 12.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.71 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 145 | 106 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 12.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 37 | 177 | 788 | 116 | 117 | 9 | 86% | 4.1 | 14.8% | 14.9% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 4.26 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 42 | 200 | 889 | 131 | 132 | 10 | 86% | 4.1 | 14.8% | 14.9% | -0.1% | 1.1% | 4.26 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Meckley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.62 | 13.2% | 14.5% | 2.6% | — | 5.13 | 16.6% | 3.8% | 222 | -0.49 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 88 |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 86 |
| Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 86 |
| Troy Miller R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 12.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .299 | 5.35 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 45 | +0.39 | 4.96 | 168 | 86 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 84 |
| Reid Schaller R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 83 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 83 |
| Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.56 | 13.4% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .322 | 4.32 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 163 | -1.24 | 4.19 | 360 | 82 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 82 |
| Jack Noble R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.45 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 6.15 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 58 | +1.70 | 4.45 | 125 | 82 |
| C.J. Culpepper R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.75 | 15.8% | 14.3% | 2.1% | .270 | 3.74 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 54 | -1.01 | 3.41 | 253 | 82 |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 82 |
| Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .239 | 6.40 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.70 | 4.70 | 140 | 82 |
| Ben Hansen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 81 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 81 |
| Yoan López R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.60 | 10.4% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .282 | 3.58 | 25.5% | 17.4% | 153 | -2.02 | 2.16 | 377 | 81 |
| Baron Stuart R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 81 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 80 |
| Sam Wolff R 2028 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 80 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.43 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .285 | 7.34 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 26 | +2.91 | 4.43 | 225 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 73 | 16.3% | 12.9% | 1.03 | 5.23 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |