Alexander Meckley

Alexander Meckley P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%13.2%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%-1.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	6	24	5	4	0	0%	1.9	20.8%	16.7%	4.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.45	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	6	24	5	4	0	0%	1.9	20.8%	16.7%	4.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.45	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	3	0	6	24	5	4	0	0%	1.9	20.8%	16.7%	4.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.45	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	102	453	89	49	4	96%	4.4	14.7%	12.7%	2.0%	1.1%	4.13	4.08	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	102	453	89	49	4	96%	4.4	14.7%	12.7%	2.0%	1.1%	4.13	4.08	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	102	453	89	49	4	96%	4.4	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	0.9%	4.13	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	19	110	484	107	65	4	73%	4.2	16.5%	15.7%	0.8%	1.1%	4.65	4.28	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	19	110	484	107	65	4	73%	4.2	16.5%	15.7%	0.8%	1.1%	4.65	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	WSH	19	12	82	348	89	41	2	63%	4.3	25.6%	11.8%	13.8%	0.6%	4.17	2.75	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	WSH	7	7	28	136	18	24	2	100%	4.0	13.2%	17.6%	-4.4%	1.5%	6.04	5.02	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	6	24	3	3	1	100%	5.6	13.2%	14.6%	-1.5%	2.6%	5.65	5.65	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	116	508	110	68	5	—	—	21.7%	13.5%	8.2%	0.9%	4.70	4.34	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	111	468	72	62	12	100%	5.5	15.3%	13.3%	2.0%	2.6%	5.38	5.30	-0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	112	474	79	59	12	100%	5.9	16.6%	12.5%	4.1%	2.6%	5.18	5.10	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	112	474	82	58	12	100%	5.9	17.3%	12.2%	5.1%	2.6%	5.07	5.02	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	110	467	81	57	13	100%	6.1	17.4%	12.2%	5.2%	2.7%	5.04	5.04	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	107	453	78	56	13	100%	6.0	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	2.8%	5.09	5.12	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	102	432	74	54	13	100%	6.0	17.0%	12.6%	4.5%	2.9%	5.19	5.25	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	96	407	68	52	13	100%	6.0	16.7%	12.8%	3.8%	3.1%	5.33	5.43	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	47	198	30	26	5	100%	5.9	15.3%	13.3%	2.0%	2.6%	5.38	5.30	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	74	312	52	39	8	100%	5.7	16.6%	12.5%	4.1%	2.6%	5.18	5.10	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	89	376	65	46	10	100%	5.9	17.3%	12.2%	5.1%	2.6%	5.07	5.02	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	94	397	69	48	11	100%	5.9	17.4%	12.2%	5.2%	2.7%	5.04	5.04	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	95	401	69	49	11	100%	5.9	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	2.8%	5.09	5.12	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	67	49	12	100%	5.8	17.0%	12.6%	4.5%	2.9%	5.19	5.25	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	89	376	63	48	12	100%	5.9	16.7%	12.8%	3.8%	3.1%	5.33	5.43	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	582	2457	415	307	69	100%	5.9	16.9%	12.5%	4.4%	2.8%	5.17	4.79	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	143	106	24	100%	5.9	16.9%	12.5%	4.4%	2.8%	5.17	4.79	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		52	41	218	961	151	138	10	79%	4.2	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	1.1%	4.29	4.16	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	880	138	126	9	79%	4.2	15.7%	14.3%	1.4%	1.1%	4.29	4.16	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Meckley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	13.2%	14.6%	2.6%	—	5.14	16.4%	3.7%	335	-0.51	—	—	—
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	83
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	82
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	81
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	81
Jeff Brigham R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	14.5%	11.3%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	288	-0.98	3.48	620	81
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	80
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	80
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	80
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	79
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	79
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	79
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	79
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	103	16.5%	12.7%	1.07	5.22
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04