Alexander Meckley
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 240 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.7 · 2029
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%9.3%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 3 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 23 | 22 | 102 | 453 | 89 | 49 | 4 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 1.1% | 4.13 | 4.08 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 3 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 15 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 87 | 46 | 11 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 115 | 479 | 102 | 53 | 11 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 4.22 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 107 | 50 | 13 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 121 | 53 | 15 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 141 | 597 | 129 | 55 | 16 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 144 | 609 | 132 | 56 | 16 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 144 | 608 | 131 | 56 | 16 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 141 | 595 | 128 | 55 | 16 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 137 | 577 | 123 | 54 | 16 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 117 | 53 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 111 | 52 | 16 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 104 | 50 | 16 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 115 | 485 | 97 | 49 | 15 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 90 | 47 | 15 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 82 | 45 | 14 | 19.3% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 23 | 121 | 524 | 86 | 69 | 5 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 1.0% | 3.65 | 3.89 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 869 | 143 | 114 | 8 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 1.0% | 3.65 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Meckley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.9% | 397 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 93 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 92 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.78 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 146 | +0.51 | 4.27 | 238 | 92 |
| Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.69 | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.28 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 263 | 91 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 91 |
| Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.99 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .277 | 3.30 | 25.0% | 12.6% | 123 | -1.69 | 2.58 | 314 | 91 |
| Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.14 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.15 | 4.99 | 213 | 90 |
| Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 90 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 90 |
| Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .239 | 6.46 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.89 | 4.57 | 140 | 90 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 90 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 90 |
| Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.5% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .295 | 3.70 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 222 | -0.91 | 3.45 | 542 | 90 |
| Tyler Woessner R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .307 | 5.37 | 18.0% | 3.0% | 76 | +1.28 | 4.09 | 197 | 90 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 90 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.35 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.3% | .301 | 6.74 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.39 | 5.35 | 139 | 90 |
| Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | .258 | 5.07 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.79 | 4.28 | 151 | 90 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.24 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 5.78 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.54 | 2.86 | 357 | 89 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.67 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.05 | 4.17 | 347 | 89 |
| Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.17 | 4.33 | 151 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.6 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.4 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.2 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $66M | +$60M | ||