Humberto Cruz

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKSD	2	2	2	0.00	2.60	25.0%	12.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 2.57
2025	18	MIX2 levels	14	14	38	7.58	5.34	20.5%	9.9%	—	K 14.6% · BB 12.1% · FIP 6.95
2027PROJ	20	MLBSD	5	5	27	4.86	4.86	19.8%	10.5%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSD	3	3	18	4.69	4.61	21.1%	9.7%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff53Control51Command55FB velo52

CompsCarson Fulmer (age 21) · Marco Raya (age 20) · Jonathan Stiever (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%19.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD2555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	2	2	2	8	2	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	2	2	2	8	2	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	2	2	2	8	2	1	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	171	35	17	8	100%	2.7	14.6%	12.1%	2.6%	6.5%	7.58	6.95	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	38	171	35	17	8	100%	2.7	14.6%	12.1%	2.6%	6.5%	7.58	6.95	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	38	171	35	17	8	100%	2.7	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	4.7%	7.58	5.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SD	5	5	27	114	23	12	4	100%	5.4	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	36	152	32	15	5	100%	5.1	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.61	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	3	3	18	76	16	7	2	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.61	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	75	16	7	2	100%	4.4	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.23	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	181	79	23	100%	4.8	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		16	16	40	179	27	22	11	100%	2.5	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	6.2%	7.20	6.75	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	80	200	895	135	108	55	100%	2.5	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	6.2%	7.20	6.75	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Humberto Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	19.8%	10.5%	3.1%	—	4.61	21.1%	11.4%	36	-0.25	—	—	—
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	86
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.75	20.8%	10.0%	256	+0.76	3.99	383	84
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	84
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	82
Jeff Criswell R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	18.5%	9.2%	2.6%	.242	5.24	21.9%	11.8%	306	+1.10	4.14	352	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	81
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	81
Jimmy Lambert R 2016 · 3.98 FIP	21	SP	3.98	16.2%	9.5%	1.9%	.394	4.11	17.2%	9.0%	305	+0.13	3.43	526	79
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	79
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	79
Deyvis Julian R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP	4.54	15.2%	10.5%	2.5%	.241	4.74	11.2%	-3.5%	48	+0.20	3.44	116	79
Zach Haake R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	21	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.205	4.54	20.2%	6.8%	121	+0.41	3.44	272	78
Landon Sims R 2023 · 6.04 FIP	22	SP	6.04	19.3%	12.9%	5.3%	.302	4.01	19.9%	7.6%	169	-2.03	3.35	185	78
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	78
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	78
Gio Arriera R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	19	SP	5.41	15.1%	13.9%	3.3%	.333	4.34	15.5%	2.0%	79	-1.07	4.34	185	78
Xavier Lopez R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	14.9%	9.6%	1.6%	.365	4.84	12.9%	-0.0%	96	+0.92	3.92	116	78
Alexander Almonte R 2024 · 5.69 FIP	17	SP	5.69	16.2%	13.8%	4.0%	.250	4.82	12.6%	-2.8%	75	-0.87	4.27	100	77
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	20.6%	10.0%	1.20	4.76
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*