Derik Alcantara — OGILVIE

Derik AlcantaraOF Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION249 act + 23 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .261 / .238

PA23

HR0

K%17

BB%9

BABIP256

ISO48

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 62 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT62

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	113	30	8	2	0	14	6	1	7	3	265	352	372	723	106	273	5	11	321	104	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2024	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	110	93	32	5	0	2	13	9	1	10	1	344	430	462	892	118	353	8	12	391	151	+7	+2	—	—	+2	1.1
2025	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	99	78	15	2	1	1	17	13	1	4	1	192	344	282	626	90	209	13	17	291	83	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	142	122	39	6	5	1	16	18	1	6	4	320	403	475	878	156	358	13	11	382	144	+8	-0	—	—	+3	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	118	24	6	1	0	9	9	1	7	3	203	266	271	537	68	215	7	7	246	53	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	98	27	4	0	2	8	13	1	10	1	276	336	378	714	102	279	12	7	311	97	-0	+2	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	99	85	15	2	1	1	10	19	1	4	1	176	271	259	530	82	187	19	10	231	42	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	142	128	30	4	3	1	10	27	1	6	4	234	295	336	631	102	278	19	7	282	77	-4	-0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	118	24	6	1	0	9	9	1	7	3	203	266	271	537	68	214	7	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	113	30	8	2	0	14	6	1	7	3	265	352	372	723	106	273	5	11	321	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	98	27	4	0	2	8	13	1	10	1	276	336	378	714	102	291	12	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	110	93	32	5	0	2	13	9	1	10	1	344	430	462	892	118	353	8	12	391	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	241	213	45	6	4	2	20	46	2	10	5	211	285	305	590	94	251	19	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	241	200	54	8	6	2	33	31	2	10	5	270	379	400	779	130	301	13	14	344	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	120	24	6	1	0	9	9	1	7	3	200	266	267	532	67	215	7	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	100	27	4	0	2	8	13	1	10	1	270	336	370	706	100	279	12	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	241	217	45	6	4	2	20	46	2	10	5	207	285	300	585	92	241	19	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	120	24	6	1	0	9	9	1	7	3	200	266	267	532	67	215	7	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	110	100	27	4	0	2	8	13	1	10	1	270	336	370	706	100	279	12	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	241	217	45	6	4	2	20	46	2	10	5	207	285	300	585	92	241	19	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A MLE	CHC	—	249	228	35	5	3	2	19	53	0	7	2	154	219	228	447	75	189	21	8	200	22	-23	+1	+0	-1	+5	-1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	CHC	—	79	69	16	2	4	1	9	11	0	2	0	232	321	420	741	188	259	14	11	323	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A RAW	CHC	—	170	148	26	4	1	1	21	26	0	5	2	176	278	236	515	61	205	15	12	245	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A MLE	CHC	0%	23	21	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	190	261	238	499	48	253	17	9	259	62	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	21	A MLE	CHC	—	272	249	39	6	3	2	21	57	0	8	2	157	222	229	451	72	193	21	8	205	25	-24	+1	+0	-2	+6	-2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	311	282	61	10	4	4	25	60	1	6	2	216	282	323	605	106	258	19	8	273	71	-11	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	107	96	21	4	1	1	9	21	1	2	1	219	292	312	605	94	261	20	8	272	71	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	107	96	21	4	1	1	9	21	1	2	1	219	292	312	605	94	267	20	8	272	69	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	127	24	6	6	55	128	6	12	6	218	292	310	602	93	266	20	8	272	69	-22	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	816	732	161	27	9	8	64	132	5	34	11	220	287	314	601	94	252	16	8	270	69	-12	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	128	22	7	6	51	105	4	27	9	220	287	312	599	93	253	16	8	270	69	-23	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	346	4	8	236	298	336	-2	+0	-0.0	0.0
/162	664	7	14	-4.0	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derik Alcantara (OGILVIE)	21	57→62	34→39	51→56	54	206/271/294	88	253	2	6	19%	8%	62	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	50→58	38→45	58→60	49	232/294/325	93	280	3	14	18%	7%	76	-0.4	234/293/308	74	292	3	19	19%	6%	72	-0.7	260/317/349	89	329	5	34	21%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Cory Harrilchak 2010 · A	22	52→55	38→45	57→50	50	246/300/333	87	283	4	15	15%	7%	80	-0.2	238/289/335	97	292	5	13	19%	6%	76	-0.4	233/286/333	100	287	5	13	19%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Dan Robinson 2019 · A	22	52	38→40	51→50	51	243/305/334	91	287	4	10	16%	8%	82	+0.0	213/281/289	76	281	4	7	23%	8%	63	-1.3	193/268/258	64	258	2	5	24%	9%	49	-1.5
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→60	40	56→55	48	248/308/348	100	311	7	17	22%	8%	87	+0.4	262/323/367	105	305	7	19	16%	7%	97	+1.1	262/330/356	94	300	7	20	14%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Charlie Tilson 2014 · A	21	53→60	38→40	52→55	42	254/290/334	80	313	6	11	21%	5%	76	-0.4	256/294/343	87	320	5	18	21%	5%	80	-0.2	261/301/350	89	322	5	22	20%	5%	81	-0.1
✕Ramón Flores 2013 · A	21	49→57	40→45	51→50	45	236/288/334	98	297	7	12	22%	6%	76	-0.4	233/293/336	103	286	7	8	20%	8%	78	-0.3	248/322/344	96	296	8	8	18%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Bo Greenwell 2011 · A	22	54→58	38→45	48→50	47	256/308/339	83	312	5	13	19%	6%	84	+0.2	244/291/340	96	301	6	11	20%	6%	78	-0.3	235/281/338	103	284	7	8	19%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Michael Gigliotti 2018 · A	22	52	41→40	51→55	50	249/317/350	101	309	7	17	21%	8%	91	+0.6	233/298/319	86	307	5	20	24%	7%	77	-0.3	191/301/300	110	261	10	24	28%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	78	-0.3	225/271/287	62	293	2	11	23%	4%	59	-1.7	271/324/338	67	344	3	10	21%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2015 · A	22	50→53	42→45	53→50	49	241/300/351	109	293	8	12	20%	8%	84	+0.2	239/290/342	103	290	8	9	19%	6%	78	-0.3	243/304/370	127	291	12	9	20%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	80	-0.2	207/265/296	89	292	5	12	29%	6%	59	-1.7	197/253/289	92	277	5	13	29%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Drew Cumberland 2010 · A	21	52	37→45	56→55	50	245/306/328	83	287	4	17	15%	7%	82	-0.0	264/308/386	122	315	10	18	19%	5%	95	+1.0	307/338/450	143	360	14	25	18%	3%	118	+1.5
✕Matt Cerda 2011 · A	21	49→55	39→40	51→40	51	232/295/320	88	279	5	4	18%	8%	75	-0.5	233/314/307	74	298	3	5	20%	10%	80	-0.1	232/323/293	61	299	2	5	21%	11%	78	-0.2
✕Adrian Cardenas 2009 · AA	21	53→59	40	53→50	45	252/297/344	92	304	7	13	19%	6%	82	-0.0	263/311/355	92	310	5	9	16%	6%	89	+0.5	272/321/361	89	314	4	8	14%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Yoel Yanqui 2018 · A	22	52	40	56→50	47	244/307/345	101	326	5	12	25%	8%	86	+0.3	229/282/318	89	316	6	11	27%	7%	70	-0.8	219/276/311	91	303	7	11	28%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Tres Gonzalez 2023 · A	22	52→53	39→30	54→50	47	245/312/334	89	311	5	16	22%	7%	85	+0.2	233/304/302	69	312	5	15	25%	8%	75	-0.5	227/300/281	54	306	4	13	25%	8%	67	-0.7
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	50	38→40	52→50	45	231/304/321	90	315	3	12	26%	7%	80	-0.2	213/282/287	74	343	3	10	36%	7%	64	-1.3	171/249/199	28	339	0	12	45%	7%	30	-0.7
✕Leon Landry 2011 · A	21	52→54	40→45	47→55	43	249/288/353	104	304	6	11	20%	5%	80	-0.2	226/261/331	105	271	7	17	19%	4%	65	-1.2	232/259/339	107	272	7	23	17%	3%	63	-1.1
✕Brian Miller 2018 · A	22	55→58	38→40	53→60	46	257/304/339	82	316	4	20	19%	6%	82	+0.0	247/284/318	71	301	2	23	18%	5%	70	-0.8	235/284/317	82	305	4	34	23%	6%	68	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps