Derik Alcantara

OF Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2013ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKCHC110.344/.430/.46221098—.278/.346/.381
202520A/ROKCHC241.270/.379/.40021065—.211/.289/.306
202621A/ROKCHC249.194/.291/.2952724—.155/.227/.234
2027PROJMLE22MLBCHC359.230/.302/.33147800.0
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBCHC63.236/.308/.34911850.0
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBCHC122.238/.311/.35822880.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Whiff%99
Z-Con%99
Chase%90
K%88
BB%52
Speed32
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%
CompsTre' Morgan (age 22) · Dan Robinson (age 22) · Dwight Smith Jr. (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 146 proj PA
wRC+†80
AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .300 / .328
PA146
HR2
K%22
BB%9
ISO102
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.10.10.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 38
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT60
scouting grade only
POWER38
scouting grade only
EYE56
scouting grade only
SPEED54
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Arb-1$0.2M———
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202318 ROKDSL Cubs Blue — 131113 30820 1461 73 265352372723 106273 511 321 36 — — — — — —
202419 ROKACL Cubs — 11093 32502 1391 101 344430462892 118353 812 391 98 — — — — — —
202520 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9978 15211 17131 41 192344282626 90209 1317 291 49 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL Cubs — 142122 39651 16181 64 320403475878 156358 1311 382 76 — — — — — —
202621 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 170148 26411 21260 52 176278236515 61205 1512 245 18 — — — — — —
202621 ROKACL Cubs — 7969 16241 9110 20 232321420741 188259 1411 323 36 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202318 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 131117 21510 1071 73 179250239489 60180 58 221 36 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 11097 27402 9131 101 278346381727 103281 128 313 98 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 9984 15211 11191 41 179281262543 83190 1911 241 49 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 142128 30431 10271 64 234295336631 102277 197 281 76 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 170154 23311 15350 52 149225201426 52184 219 195 18 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 7972 12131 6160 20 167231306536 139188 208 221 36 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 131117 21510 1071 73 179250239489 60186 58 221 36 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWDSL Cubs Blue — 131113 30820 1461 73 265352372723 106273 511 321 36 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 11097 27402 9131 101 278346381727 103294 128 313 98 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWACL Cubs — 11093 32502 1391 101 344430462892 118353 812 391 98 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLE2 teams — 241212 45642 21452 105 212289307596 94251 199 265 65 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAW2 teams — 241200 54862 33312 105 270379400779 130301 1314 344 65 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 249227 36542 20510 72 159227242469 84193 208 203 24 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW2 teams — 249217 42652 30370 72 194291295586 101222 1512 270 24 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 131119 21510 1071 73 176250235485 59180 58 221 36 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 11099 27402 9131 101 273346374720 101281 128 313 98 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLE2 teams — 241216 45642 21452 105 208289301590 93241 199 265 65 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 249227 36542 20510 72 159227242469 84185 208 203 24 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 11099 27402 9131 101 273346374720 101281 128 313 98 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLE2 teams — 241216 45642 21452 105 208289301590 93241 199 265 65 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 249227 36542 20510 72 159227242469 84185 208 203 24 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLECHC 0% 359322 741434 31783 72 230302331633 102286 229 287 80 -8 +1 +0 -2 +8 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLECHC 34% 182163 38713 16391 41 233306345651 111288 219 294 85 -3 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.0
202924 MLB MLECHC 46% 265238 571125 23572 52 236309354663 118289 229 298 88 -4 +0 +0 -2 +6 0.1
203025 MLB MLECHC 52% 323290 681326 28692 72 237310360670 122289 219 301 90 -4 +1 +0 -2 +7 0.2
203126 MLB MLECHC 54% 361323 771527 32783 72 238311362673 125289 229 302 91 -4 +1 +0 -2 +8 0.2
203227 MLB MLECHC 54% 375336 791527 33813 72 237310362672 125289 229 302 91 -4 +1 +0 -2 +8 0.2
203328 MLB MLECHC 54% 379340 791527 33833 72 235308357666 122288 229 299 89 -5 +1 -1 -2 +8 0.1
203429 MLB MLECHC 53% 372334 781527 32823 62 233305351656 118286 229 296 86 -6 +0 -1 -2 +8 -0.1
203530 MLB MLECHC 52% 363327 741426 31822 52 230302343645 113285 239 291 83 -7 +0 -2 -2 +8 -0.4
202823 MLB CTXCHC 34% 6358 14311 5140 10 236308349657 113291 228 296 85 -1 +0 +0 -0 +1 0.0
202924 MLB CTXCHC 46% 122109 26512 11261 21 238311358669 120292 219 301 88 -2 +0 +0 -1 +3 0.0
203025 MLB CTXCHC 52% 167149 36713 15361 31 239312363675 124293 229 303 90 -2 +0 +0 -1 +4 0.1
203126 MLB CTXCHC 54% 196176 43824 17421 41 240313366678 126293 219 304 91 -2 +0 +0 -1 +4 0.1
203227 MLB CTXCHC 54% 203181 44824 18442 41 239312365677 126292 229 304 91 -2 +0 +0 -1 +4 0.1
203328 MLB CTXCHC 54% 206185 45924 18451 41 237310361671 123291 229 301 89 -3 +0 -0 -1 +4 0.0
203429 MLB CTXCHC 53% 198178 41813 17441 31 235307354662 120290 229 298 86 -3 +0 -1 -1 +4 -0.1
203530 MLB CTXCHC 52% 190171 40813 16431 31 232304346650 115288 238 293 83 -4 +0 -1 -1 +4 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 13451207 289561124 1172948 247 239311364675 124296 229 300 80 -19 +2 -2 -8 +29 0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650583 14027512 571424 123 240312365677 125296 229 300 80 -9 +1 -1 -4 +14 0.1
Career— MLE — 34973135 7091312556 30171924 8527 226299337636 111273 219 286 80 -41 +4 -4 -17 +60 0.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 13124510 561344 165 225297334631 110273 219 286 80 -10 +1 -1 -4 +14 0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 170 PAwOBA .240 → .195 (−46)K% 15.3% → 20.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.29%÷1.000×1.360——20.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.35%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0158.65%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0150.00%
Singles /BIP16.39%÷1.000×0.920×0.977×1.01514.95%
Doubles /BIP3.28%÷1.000×0.830×0.977×1.0152.70%
Triples /BIP0.82%÷1.000×0.910×0.977×1.0150.74%
Home runs /BIP0.82%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0150.67%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .240 → .195; ISO .061 → .050; BABIP .205 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Cubs · 79 PAwOBA .319 → .221 (−98)K% 13.9% → 20.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.92%÷1.000×1.440——20.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.39%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9856.96%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP15.52%÷1.000×0.820×0.950×0.98511.91%
Doubles /BIP3.45%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×0.9852.32%
Triples /BIP6.90%÷1.000×0.720×0.950×0.9854.65%
Home runs /BIP1.72%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9851.32%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .319 → .221; ISO .188 → .130; BABIP .259 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 142 PAwOBA .380 → .281 (−99)K% 12.7% → 18.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.68%÷0.969×1.440——18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.27%÷0.983×0.620—×0.9957.07%
HBP% /PA0.70%—×0.720—×0.9950.50%
Singles /BIP25.96%÷1.004×0.820×0.990×0.99520.89%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷0.973×0.720×0.990×0.9954.21%
Triples /BIP4.81%÷1.089×0.720×0.990×0.9953.13%
Home runs /BIP0.96%÷0.868×0.780—×0.9950.86%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .380 → .281; ISO .156 → .112; BABIP .358 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 99 PAwOBA .294 → .241 (−53)K% 13.1% → 18.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.13%÷0.956×1.360——18.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.17%÷1.106×0.690—×1.03011.03%
HBP% /PA1.01%—×0.780—×1.0300.81%
Singles /BIP16.92%÷0.990×0.920×0.972×1.03015.75%
Doubles /BIP3.08%÷0.968×0.830×0.972×1.0302.64%
Triples /BIP1.54%÷1.150×0.910×0.972×1.0301.22%
Home runs /BIP1.54%÷0.925×0.800—×1.0301.37%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .294 → .241; ISO .090 → .081; BABIP .209 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 110 PAwOBA .392 → .313 (−79)K% 8.2% → 11.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA8.18%÷0.989×1.440——11.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.82%÷0.947×0.620—×1.0087.80%
HBP% /PA0.91%—×0.720—×1.0080.66%
Singles /BIP29.76%÷1.047×0.820×1.010×1.00823.72%
Doubles /BIP5.95%÷0.903×0.720×1.010×1.0084.83%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720×1.010×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP2.38%÷0.935×0.780—×1.0082.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .392 → .313; ISO .118 → .102; BABIP .353 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 131 PAwOBA .321 → .221 (−100)K% 4.6% → 5.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA4.58%÷1.004×1.220——5.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.69%÷1.022×0.700—×1.0087.37%
HBP% /PA0.76%—×0.700—×1.0080.54%
Singles /BIP18.69%÷0.972×0.680×0.979×1.00812.90%
Doubles /BIP7.48%÷0.996×0.600×0.979×1.0084.45%
Triples /BIP1.87%÷1.017×0.600×0.979×1.0081.09%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .321 → .221; ISO .106 → .066; BABIP .273 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).