Derik Alcantara — OGILVIE

Derik AlcantaraOF ACL Cubs

Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION139 act + 92 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .270 / .295

PA92

HR1

K%22

BB%8

BABIP251

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 62 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT62

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	119	25	6	1	0	8	9	1	7	3	210	266	277	543	67	221	7	6	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	113	30	8	2	0	14	6	1	7	3	265	352	372	723	106	273	5	11	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	110	97	27	5	0	2	9	13	1	10	1	278	346	392	738	113	294	12	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	110	93	32	5	0	2	13	9	1	10	1	344	430	462	892	118	353	8	12	391	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	241	214	45	6	4	2	19	48	2	10	5	210	281	304	585	93	253	20	8	259	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	2 teams	—	241	200	54	8	6	2	33	31	2	10	5	270	379	400	779	130	301	13	14	344	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	CHC	—	139	128	18	3	3	1	10	31	0	3	1	141	203	234	437	94	175	22	7	189	3	-15	+0	+0	-1	+4	-1.2
YTD	21	ROK	CHC	—	139	122	23	4	4	1	16	22	0	3	1	189	283	311	594	123	220	16	12	270	65	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
ROS	21	ROK	CHC	0%	92	84	17	3	1	1	7	20	1	2	1	201	270	295	565	94	262	22	8	273	67	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	CHC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		264	—	—	269	64	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	CHC	—	139	129	18	3	3	1	10	31	0	3	1	140	203	233	435	93	173	22	7	189	3	-15	+0	+0	-1	+4	-1.2
TOT	21	ROK	CHC	—	231	212	35	6	4	2	17	51	1	5	2	165	230	259	488	94	205	22	7	223	29	-19	+0	+0	-1	+7	-1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	CHC	34%	296	269	59	11	3	5	23	62	2	6	2	219	286	338	624	119	266	21	8	282	74	-9	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	CHC	48%	386	349	79	15	4	7	31	80	3	8	2	226	295	352	647	126	269	21	8	289	79	-9	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.0
2027	22	MLB	CHC	34%	102	92	21	4	1	2	8	21	1	2	1	228	297	359	656	130	268	21	8	278	71	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	CHC	48%	187	169	39	7	2	4	15	39	1	4	1	231	297	367	664	136	270	21	8	285	76	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	289	262	60	11	3	6	23	60	2	6	2	229	297	363	660	134	273	21	8	282	74	-8	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	135	25	7	13	52	135	4	13	4	229	297	362	658	132	274	21	8	282	74	-19	+1	+0	-4	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	1256	1132	252	46	13	17	97	232	10	43	14	222	290	331	621	109	261	18	8	278	71	-41	+3	+0	-8	+36	-1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	131	24	7	9	50	120	5	22	7	224	290	334	625	111	262	18	8	278	71	-21	+2	+0	-4	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	131	113	30	8	2	0	14	6	1	7	3	265	352	372	723	106	273	5	11	321	104	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	110	93	32	5	0	2	13	9	1	10	1	344	430	462	892	118	353	8	12	391	157	+7	+2	—	—	+3	1.2
2025	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	99	78	15	2	1	1	17	13	1	4	1	192	344	282	626	90	209	13	17	291	81	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	142	122	39	6	5	1	16	18	1	6	4	320	403	475	878	156	358	13	11	382	150	+8	-0	—	—	+4	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#3Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#4Jose Maciaslast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,785 PA	6	1,785	25	43	256	298	370	-8	+2	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	9	16	256	298	370	-3.1	+0.6	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	516	9	10	232	296	352	-3	+0	0.1	0.2
	/162	664	11	13	232	296	352	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derik Alcantara (OGILVIE)	21	57→62	35→40	51→56	54	165/230/259	94	205	2	5	22%	7%	29	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Gigliotti 2018 · A	22	53	40	51→55	50	252/319/352	100	313	7	17	21%	8%	91	+1.1	234/297/320	86	306	5	20	23%	7%	74	-0.1	194/304/312	118	265	11	24	28%	11%	75	+0.0
✕Charlie Tilson 2014 · A	21	53→60	39→40	52→55	42	253/288/336	83	312	6	11	21%	4%	72	-0.2	255/293/348	93	321	6	18	21%	5%	78	+0.2	261/302/356	95	324	6	22	20%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Carlos Vidal 2017 · A	21	48	43→45	49→50	48	234/302/348	114	288	10	12	22%	7%	83	+0.6	232/278/326	94	303	6	7	24%	5%	66	-0.6	237/281/332	95	308	5	6	24%	5%	65	-0.3
●Dylan Beavers 2023 · A	21	54→52	40→50	54→55	49	253/321/354	101	335	5	14	24%	8%	92	+1.2	224/298/357	133	310	12	21	29%	9%	84	+0.6	221/302/362	141	296	15	23	29%	10%	85	+0.6
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→59	40→45	56→55	48	247/307/344	98	310	7	17	22%	8%	84	+0.6	263/324/374	111	306	8	19	16%	8%	98	+1.6	266/334/365	99	304	8	20	14%	8%	99	+1.4
✕Ramón Flores 2013 · A	21	48→58	40→45	51→50	44	232/279/328	97	291	7	12	22%	6%	68	-0.5	232/289/335	103	286	8	8	20%	7%	74	-0.1	251/324/348	97	299	8	8	18%	9%	88	+0.6
✕Juan Perez 2012 · A	20	49→51	41→45	55	45	233/286/340	108	296	7	13	23%	6%	74	-0.1	211/258/316	105	269	8	15	24%	5%	56	-1.3	227/271/349	122	293	14	24	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2015 · A	22	50→53	41→50	53→50	49	240/298/343	104	292	7	12	20%	8%	79	+0.3	235/285/337	102	290	8	9	21%	6%	72	-0.2	245/307/382	136	293	13	9	20%	7%	91	+0.9
●Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	229/304/337	108	264	10	17	17%	8%	82	+0.5	248/300/333	85	280	5	13	13%	6%	77	+0.1	266/326/350	84	306	4	14	13%	8%	90	+0.8
✕Dan Robinson 2019 · A	22	52	38→40	51→50	51	243/305/334	91	287	4	10	16%	8%	80	+0.4	215/282/292	77	281	4	7	23%	8%	59	-1.1	197/270/264	67	260	2	5	23%	9%	44	-1.3
✕Jose Duarte 2006 · A	21	48→56	40	50→55	47	229/285/330	101	294	7	11	24%	7%	70	-0.3	235/283/309	74	308	3	19	23%	6%	64	-0.8	236/303/327	91	295	6	14	21%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	77	+0.1	207/263/300	93	289	6	12	28%	6%	54	-1.4	195/251/293	97	271	6	13	28%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Bo Greenwell 2011 · A	22	55→59	38→45	48→50	47	259/310/341	83	315	5	13	19%	6%	84	+0.6	243/289/340	97	301	6	11	20%	6%	75	-0.0	232/278/338	106	283	7	8	20%	5%	66	-0.3
✕Tyler Holt 2011 · A	22	49→58	41→40	50→55	51	232/306/345	112	297	5	13	22%	9%	84	+0.6	213/273/281	68	292	2	20	25%	7%	53	-1.5	254/325/312	58	329	1	27	21%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Troy Montgomery 2017 · A	22	46→55	43→40	50	43	225/285/337	113	300	10	12	28%	7%	73	-0.1	231/296/325	94	316	7	13	27%	8%	75	-0.0	239/308/328	89	327	6	14	26%	9%	77	+0.1
●Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	45→54	40→45	53→50	52	214/297/310	95	272	8	10	23%	10%	72	-0.2	225/295/354	129	272	12	8	21%	8%	82	+0.5	238/307/358	119	303	12	6	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Yoel Yanqui 2018 · A	22	52→50	40	56→50	47	244/307/345	101	326	5	12	25%	8%	84	+0.6	225/280/312	87	313	6	11	28%	7%	64	-0.8	215/274/307	92	299	8	11	29%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Cory Harrilchak 2010 · A	22	52→56	38→45	57→50	50	246/300/333	87	283	4	15	15%	7%	77	+0.1	240/290/345	105	296	6	13	20%	6%	77	+0.1	235/287/346	111	291	6	13	20%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Matt Cerda 2011 · A	21	49→54	38→40	51→40	50	233/294/322	89	281	5	4	18%	8%	72	-0.2	232/312/305	73	296	3	5	20%	10%	76	+0.1	229/320/288	59	295	2	5	21%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Leon Landry 2011 · A	21	52→53	40→45	47→55	43	249/288/353	104	304	6	11	20%	5%	77	+0.1	222/257/322	100	270	6	17	19%	4%	56	-1.3	226/262/321	95	266	6	17	17%	4%	56	-0.9