Derik AlcantaraOF ACL Cubs
Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
2026 ROS PROJECTION139 act + 92 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .270 / .295
PA92
HR1
K%22
BB%8
BABIP251
ISO94
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -18.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-19BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +6.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: -1.40-1.4WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.2-0.22627
Tools · ContractCON 62 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT62
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE54
scouting grade only
SPEED56
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202318 ROKDSL Cubs Blue 131119 25610 891 73 210266277543 67221 76 249 49
202318 ROKDSL Cubs Blue 131113 30820 1461 73 265352372723 106273 511 321 104
202419 ROKACL Cubs 11097 27502 9131 101 278346392738 113294 128 313 98
202419 ROKACL Cubs 11093 32502 1391 101 344430462892 118353 812 391 157
202520 ROK2 teams 241214 45642 19482 105 210281304585 93253 208 259 57
202520 ROK2 teams 241200 54862 33312 105 270379400779 130301 1314 344 122
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD21 ROKCHC 139128 18331 10310 31 141203234437 94175 227 189 3 -15 +0 +0 -1 +4 -1.2
YTD21 ROKCHC 139122 23441 16220 31 189283311594 123220 1612 270 65 -6 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.2
ROS21 ROKCHC 0% 9284 17311 7201 21 201270295565 94262 228 273 67 -3 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
ROS21 MLBCHC 0% 01 0000 000 00 264 269 64 +0 -0
FULL21 ROKCHC 139129 18331 10310 31 140203233435 93173 227 189 3 -15 +0 +0 -1 +4 -1.2
TOT21 ROKCHC 231212 35642 17511 52 165230259488 94205 227 223 29 -19 +0 +0 -1 +7 -1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722 MLBCHC 34% 296269 591135 23622 62 219286338624 119266 218 282 74 -9 +0 +0 -2 +8 -0.2
202722 MLBCHC 34% 10292 21412 8211 21 228297359656 130268 218 278 71 -3 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career 10293 21412 8211 21 226297355652 129268 218 278 71 -3 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.1
/ 162G 650593 13325613 511346 136 224295352647 128265 218 278 71 -21 +0 +0 -4 +18 -0.7
Career 870783 17331910 661527 3512 221287322609 101257 178 274 68 -32 +2 +0 -5 +25 -1.0
/ 162G 650585 1292377 491135 269 221286320606 99257 178 274 68 -24 +2 +0 -4 +18 -0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202318 ROKDSL Cubs Blue 131113 30820 1461 73 265352372723 106273 511 321 104 +1 +0 +4 0.5
202419 ROKACL Cubs 11093 32502 1391 101 344430462892 118353 812 391 157 +7 +2 +3 1.2
202520 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans 9978 15211 17131 41 192344282626 90209 1317 291 81 -2 +0 +3 0.1
202520 ROKACL Cubs 142122 39651 16181 64 320403475878 156358 1311 382 150 +8 -0 +4 1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Shane Halterlast yr '04
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA
51,7444111247305396-6+83.93.9
/162664164-2.1+3.01.5pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA
62,3474631241304367-5+73.83.8
/162664139-1.3+1.91.1pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA
51,9142978242303347-6+62.72.7
/1626641027-2.0+2.21.0pk7: 3
#4Jose Maciaslast yr '05
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,785 PA
61,7852543256298370-8+21.41.4
/162664916-3.1+0.60.5pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA
71,5644513236292400-11-61.31.3
/162664196-4.5-2.50.6pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA
61,6334033232299363+6-140.90.9
/1626641613+2.4-5.80.4pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons
132957236299352-2+00.10.2
/1626641113-4.0+0.00.3pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Derik Alcantara (OGILVIE) 21 57→62 35→40 51→56 54 165/230/259 94205 25 22% 7% 29 -1.4
Carlos Vidal
2017 · A
21 48 43→45 49→50 48 234/302/348 114288 1012 22% 7% 83 +0.6 232/278/326 94303 67 24% 5% 66 -0.6 237/281/332953085624%5%65-0.3
Dylan Beavers
2023 · A
21 54→52 40→50 54→55 49 253/321/354 101335 514 24% 8% 92 +1.2 224/298/357 133310 1221 29% 9% 84 +0.6 221/302/362141296152329%10%85+0.6
Sal Frelick
2022 · A
22 52→59 40→45 56→55 48 247/307/344 98310 717 22% 8% 84 +0.6 263/324/374 111306 819 16% 8% 98 +1.6 266/334/3659930482014%8%99+1.4
Michael Gigliotti
2018 · A
22 53 40 51→55 50 252/319/352 100313 717 21% 8% 91 +1.1 234/297/320 86306 520 23% 7% 74 -0.1 194/304/312118265112428%11%75+0.0
Ramón Flores
2013 · A
21 48→58 40→45 51→50 44 232/279/328 97291 712 22% 6% 68 -0.5 232/289/335 103286 88 20% 7% 74 -0.1 251/324/348972998818%9%88+0.6
Dwight Smith Jr.
2015 · A
22 50→53 41→50 53→50 49 240/298/343 104292 712 20% 8% 79 +0.3 235/285/337 102290 89 21% 6% 72 -0.2 245/307/38213629313920%7%91+0.9
Nicky Lopez
2017 · A
22 47→57 42→40 57→55 51 229/304/337 108264 1017 17% 8% 82 +0.5 248/300/333 85280 513 13% 6% 77 +0.1 266/326/3508430641413%8%90+0.8
Charlie Tilson
2014 · A
21 53→60 39→40 52→55 42 253/288/336 83312 611 21% 4% 72 -0.2 255/293/348 93321 618 21% 5% 78 +0.2 261/302/3569532462220%5%80+0.3
Dan Robinson
2019 · A
22 52 38→40 51→50 51 243/305/334 91287 410 16% 8% 80 +0.4 215/282/292 77281 47 23% 8% 59 -1.1 197/270/264672602523%9%44-1.3
Colin Walsh
2011 · A
21 45→54 40→45 53→50 52 214/297/310 95272 810 23% 10% 72 -0.2 225/295/354 129272 128 21% 8% 82 +0.5 238/307/35811930312624%8%85+0.5
Alek Thomas
2021 · A
21 50→51 43→50 48→50 42 239/289/356 118318 1010 27% 6% 79 +0.3 241/295/386 145303 1311 24% 6% 90 +1.0 240/293/384145293131122%6%85+0.6
Adrian Cardenas
2009 · AA
21 53→59 40→45 53→50 45 252/297/344 92304 713 20% 6% 79 +0.3 264/312/360 96311 69 16% 6% 89 +1.0 274/322/369953165814%6%95+1.2
Cory Harrilchak
2010 · A
22 52→56 38→45 57→50 50 246/300/333 87283 415 15% 7% 77 +0.1 240/290/345 105296 613 20% 6% 77 +0.1 235/287/34611129161320%6%73-0.1
Bo Greenwell
2011 · A
22 55→59 38→45 48→50 47 259/310/341 83315 513 19% 6% 84 +0.6 243/289/340 97301 611 20% 6% 75 -0.0 232/278/3381062837820%5%66-0.3
Peter Ciofrone
2006 · A
22 52→55 39→45 50→40 50 248/314/334 86292 66 17% 7% 84 +0.6 242/308/348 106289 104 19% 7% 86 +0.8 240/307/35611528312219%6%84+0.5
Juan Perez
2012 · A
20 49→51 41→45 55 45 233/286/340 108296 713 23% 6% 74 -0.1 211/258/316 105269 815 24% 5% 56 -1.3 227/271/349122293142427%5%67-0.3
Chris Pieters
2017 · A
22 48 39→45 54→55 49 226/307/315 88296 617 24% 8% 77 +0.1 207/263/300 93289 612 28% 6% 54 -1.4 195/251/2939727161328%6%45-0.8
Eliezer Álvarez
2016 · A
21 49→59 40→45 51→55 41 231/270/336 105288 510 21% 4% 66 -0.6 237/293/344 107335 619 29% 6% 78 +0.2 224/282/33210833282333%6%68-0.3
Ryan Kalish
2009 · A
21 50→51 38→50 50→55 46 234/296/315 81316 612 26% 8% 72 -0.2 239/298/374 135298 1420 24% 7% 89 +0.9 240/300/379139295152423%7%88+0.7
Yoyner Fajardo
2019 · A
20 50→58 38→45 58→60 49 232/294/325 93280 314 18% 7% 73 -0.1 235/293/308 73293 319 19% 6% 68 -0.5 259/317/3539433253422%7%85+0.4