Ivan Luciano

C Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs A HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTFG #1032MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP45ETA2028FG ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKARI	166	.275/.410/.382	2	1	66	—	.200/.304/.286
2026	19	A+ARI	51	.279/.380/.465	1	0	81	—	.222/.300/.378
2026	19	AARI	377	.264/.381/.441	11	5	91	—	.226/.316/.367
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBARI	538	.232/.312/.368	12	7	93	1.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBARI	223	.243/.322/.390	5	3	97	0.7
2029PROJ68% MLB	22	MLBARI	340	.246/.325/.398	8	4	100	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 3.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$5M2034Arb-2$9M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

wRC+75

wOBA74

ISO67

BB%52

Whiff%37

Chase%36

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 29, comp-based) · star 9% · didn't stick 66%

CompsMoisés Ballesteros (age 19) · Taylor Green (age 21) · Bryan Anderson (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .309 / .365

PA320

HR7

K%23

BB%9

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$74M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$11M	+$11M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$10M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.9	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$9M	+1.8	$8M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+1.6	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$29M		$58M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	166	131	36	6	1	2	28	31	2	1	0	275	410	382	792	107	330	19	17	355	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	51	43	12	5	0	1	6	15	1	0	0	279	380	465	845	186	407	29	12	370	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	377	311	82	18	2	11	54	75	5	5	2	264	381	441	822	177	307	20	14	363	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	140	28	4	1	2	19	47	2	1	0	200	304	286	590	86	257	28	11	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	51	45	10	4	0	1	4	20	1	0	0	222	300	378	678	156	369	39	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	377	327	74	15	2	9	38	102	5	5	2	226	316	367	683	141	286	27	10	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	140	28	4	1	2	19	47	2	1	0	200	304	286	590	86	271	28	11	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	166	131	36	6	1	2	28	31	2	1	0	275	410	382	792	107	330	19	17	355	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	428	371	85	19	2	10	43	122	6	5	2	229	319	372	691	143	306	29	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	428	354	94	23	2	12	60	90	6	5	2	266	381	444	824	178	318	21	14	364	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	144	28	4	1	2	19	47	2	1	0	194	304	278	582	83	257	28	11	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	428	376	85	19	2	10	43	122	6	5	2	226	319	367	686	141	296	29	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	144	28	4	1	2	19	47	2	1	0	194	304	278	582	83	257	28	11	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	428	376	85	19	2	10	43	122	6	5	2	226	319	367	686	141	296	29	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	538	478	111	23	3	12	49	123	6	7	2	232	312	368	679	135	285	23	9	305	93	-5	+1	-2	+10	+12	1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	462	411	96	20	2	11	43	104	5	6	2	236	316	379	695	143	286	23	9	312	97	-2	+0	-2	+8	+10	1.5
2029	22	MLB MLE	ARI	68%	499	444	107	22	3	13	46	110	6	7	2	239	320	387	707	148	287	22	9	316	100	+0	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	ARI	76%	520	461	112	23	3	14	48	114	6	6	2	241	322	393	715	152	288	22	9	319	102	+1	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	ARI	78%	520	461	112	23	3	14	48	113	6	6	2	243	323	398	721	154	289	22	9	322	104	+2	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	520	461	113	23	3	15	48	113	6	6	2	244	324	399	723	156	289	22	9	322	104	+3	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	520	460	113	23	3	15	49	113	6	6	2	243	323	399	723	156	289	22	9	322	104	+3	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	ARI	78%	520	460	111	22	3	14	49	114	6	5	2	242	322	396	719	154	288	22	9	321	103	+2	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	ARI	77%	520	460	110	22	2	14	49	115	6	4	2	240	320	391	712	151	287	22	9	318	101	+1	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	ARI	75%	520	461	110	22	2	14	48	116	6	4	2	238	317	385	702	147	286	22	9	314	99	-1	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	ARI	74%	520	462	108	22	2	13	48	118	5	3	2	235	314	377	691	142	284	23	9	310	96	-3	-0	-2	+9	+11	1.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	ARI	73%	504	448	103	21	2	12	46	116	5	2	7	230	309	367	676	137	281	23	9	303	92	-5	-2	-3	+9	+11	1.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	ARI	72%	489	437	98	19	2	11	44	115	5	3	10	225	302	354	656	129	277	24	9	296	86	-8	-3	-4	+9	+11	0.4
2040	33	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	473	424	93	18	2	10	42	114	4	3	11	218	295	338	633	120	271	24	9	286	80	-11	-4	-4	+8	+10	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	223	197	48	11	1	5	21	50	3	3	1	243	322	390	712	147	297	22	9	318	97	-1	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.7
2029	22	MLB CTX	ARI	68%	340	301	74	17	2	8	32	75	4	4	1	246	325	398	723	152	298	22	9	323	100	+0	+0	-1	+6	+7	1.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	ARI	76%	397	352	87	19	3	10	37	87	5	5	1	248	328	404	731	156	299	22	9	326	102	+1	+1	-1	+7	+9	1.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	ARI	78%	405	359	91	20	3	11	38	88	5	5	1	250	329	408	737	158	300	22	9	328	104	+2	+1	-0	+7	+9	1.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	409	363	91	20	3	11	38	89	5	5	1	250	329	410	739	159	300	22	9	329	104	+2	+1	-0	+7	+9	1.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	411	365	92	20	3	11	38	89	5	4	1	250	329	409	738	159	300	22	9	329	104	+2	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	ARI	78%	403	357	89	20	2	11	38	88	5	4	1	249	328	406	735	158	299	22	9	327	103	+2	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	ARI	77%	400	356	87	19	2	10	37	88	4	3	1	247	326	401	728	155	298	22	9	324	101	+1	+0	-1	+7	+9	1.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	ARI	75%	389	346	85	19	2	10	36	87	4	3	1	244	323	395	718	151	296	22	9	320	99	-1	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	ARI	74%	382	340	82	18	2	9	35	87	4	2	2	241	319	387	706	146	294	23	9	316	96	-2	-0	-2	+7	+8	1.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	ARI	73%	367	326	77	17	2	8	34	85	4	1	5	236	314	376	690	140	291	23	9	309	92	-4	-2	-2	+7	+8	0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	ARI	72%	354	316	74	16	2	8	32	83	3	2	7	230	308	363	671	132	286	23	9	301	86	-6	-2	-3	+6	+8	0.3
2040	33	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	372	333	75	16	2	7	33	90	3	3	8	223	300	347	647	124	281	24	9	292	80	-9	-3	-3	+7	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4852	4311	1052	232	29	119	449	1086	54	44	31	244	323	394	717	150	298	22	9	319	96	-12	-4	-15	+87	+105	16.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	141	31	4	16	60	145	7	6	4	244	322	394	717	151	298	22	9	319	96	-2	-0	-2	+12	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7501	6645	1566	317	37	189	699	1717	84	71	51	236	316	380	696	144	288	23	9	311	96	-20	-7	-22	+123	+150	22.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	135	27	3	16	61	149	7	6	4	234	315	375	690	141	287	23	9	311	96	-2	-1	-2	+12	+14	2.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jim Sundberg'74-'89 * career totals — 16 seasons, 6,898 PA	10.4	6,898	95	20	245*	327*	371*	+123	+0	27.4	24.2
/162	664	9	2	+11.8	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 21
#2John Roseboro'57-'70 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,527 PA	8.3	5,527	104	67	247*	328*	393*	+97	-2	24.9	22.0
/162	664	12	8	+11.7	-0.2	3.0	pk7: 19
#3Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	9.3	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
/162	664	15	2	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18
#4Charles Johnson'94-'05 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,385 PA	6.6	4,385	167	6	235*	316*	421*	+78	+0	21.1	19.6
/162	664	25	1	+11.8	+0.0	3.2	pk7: 18
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	7.8	5,171	134	49	238	313	383	+92	+0	21.7	18.0
/162	664	17	6	+11.9	+0.0	2.8	pk7: 14
#5John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#6Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ivan Luciano (OGILVIE)	20	30→50	25→42	40→35	40	230/309/365	134	285	7	4	23%	9%	93	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	41→51	46→50	45→40	50	210/283/334	125	261	14	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	248/309/379	131	301	14	4	21%	8%	95	+0.9	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
●Taylor Green 2008 · A	21	50→56	44→50	35→30	48	244/303/366	122	289	11	2	20%	7%	89	+0.5	246/305/371	125	283	13	3	17%	7%	92	+0.7	251/309/394	143	284	14	0	17%	7%	97	+0.8
✕Bryan Anderson 2007 · A	20	52→59	40→45	41→30	45	250/301/351	102	313	7	5	22%	6%	85	+0.2	257/303/348	91	329	7	3	23%	6%	84	+0.2	262/307/350	88	335	7	2	23%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	46→55	48→50	43→45	42	231/293/376	145	306	15	5	29%	7%	88	+0.5	241/311/374	133	318	15	6	27%	8%	95	+0.9	239/318/366	128	315	14	5	27%	9%	93	+0.6
●Daniel Robertson 2015 · A	21	53→57	44→45	38→40	48	255/322/375	120	312	11	3	21%	8%	99	+1.2	245/318/352	107	314	8	4	23%	8%	92	+0.7	242/335/352	110	316	10	2	24%	10%	98	+0.8
✕Edgar Quero 2024 · AA	21	50→58	45→50	43→40	53	239/334/366	127	305	12	5	24%	11%	102	+1.5	248/321/358	110	304	12	3	21%	8%	95	+0.9	248/318/344	96	299	11	1	20%	8%	89	+0.3
✕John Drennen 2007 · A	20	48→58	43→45	45	44	234/295/346	113	303	10	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0	221/276/324	103	282	9	5	24%	6%	70	-0.9	250/301/374	124	298	8	1	18%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Travis Denker 2006 · A	20	47→51	51→50	37→45	50	240/317/403	162	298	20	4	26%	10%	104	+1.6	232/308/369	137	278	15	4	21%	10%	93	+0.8	228/306/359	131	271	13	4	20%	10%	88	+0.3
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	47→57	48→55	42→45	40	228/285/378	150	326	15	6	34%	7%	86	+0.3	222/280/369	147	333	14	6	35%	7%	82	-0.0	232/313/397	165	299	19	6	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	51→52	45	49→50	47	249/304/371	122	299	13	11	21%	7%	91	+0.6	242/328/367	125	291	10	13	19%	10%	99	+1.3	240/330/363	124	285	10	12	18%	10%	97	+1.0
✕Bryant Betancourt 2023 · A	19	43→47	42→45	38→45	55	206/288/312	106	231	9	3	16%	9%	72	-0.7	207/270/294	87	266	8	6	24%	7%	61	-1.5	214/270/334	120	259	15	8	23%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Hank Conger 2008 · A	20	48→58	47→50	48→45	43	241/281/376	136	287	14	9	22%	5%	84	+0.1	255/300/394	139	301	15	4	20%	6%	95	+0.9	260/314/394	134	302	14	2	18%	7%	99	+0.9
✕Dom Nuñez 2016 · A	21	44→46	45→50	40→45	49	220/278/336	116	251	13	7	18%	7%	74	-0.6	207/275/317	110	261	13	8	25%	8%	68	-1.0	181/265/328	147	236	18	5	31%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Victor Ortega 2023 · A	19	47	37→45	43→45	52	219/302/295	76	287	4	6	24%	10%	74	-0.6	212/314/272	60	270	2	7	19%	12%	74	-0.6	222/329/302	80	289	4	3	21%	12%	84	+0.1
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	49→59	39→30	44→45	52	232/313/323	92	294	5	6	22%	10%	84	+0.1	246/336/323	77	297	4	8	17%	9%	93	+0.8	269/354/337	68	315	2	8	14%	8%	100	+1.0
✕Brendan Rodgers 2018 · AA	21	48→55	47→50	42→45	38	242/283/375	133	307	15	4	26%	4%	84	+0.2	241/288/375	134	304	14	7	25%	5%	86	+0.3	260/314/400	140	308	15	0	20%	6%	102	+1.0
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	54→57	41→45	46→50	52	258/327/358	100	312	9	15	20%	9%	96	+1.0	243/315/344	101	290	8	10	18%	9%	88	+0.5	261/352/384	123	304	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.4
✕Michael Arroyo 2024 · A	19	44→51	40→50	46→50	49	208/316/308	101	279	6	7	25%	9%	84	+0.1	228/322/372	144	297	15	11	27%	8%	99	+1.3	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Yeiner Fernandez 2023 · A	20	52→53	41→40	43→45	46	251/312/352	101	307	9	4	21%	6%	90	+0.6	237/302/319	82	282	6	5	17%	7%	78	-0.3	233/299/299	66	274	4	5	16%	7%	71	-0.6

Ivan Luciano

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps