Corey Avant

P Midland RockHounds

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #500

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	34	6	71	7.39	4.12	22.5%	13.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.76
2025	23	MIX2 levels	31	22	111	4.23	3.28	21.9%	10.5%	—	K 17.3% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.69
2026	24	AAOAK	28	25	115	5.70	4.45	27.4%	13.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	23	23	135	5.25	5.25	21.5%	14.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBOAK	10	10	59	5.14	5.13	21.8%	13.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBOAK	14	14	85	5.09	5.10	21.8%	13.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command45FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 84%

CompsPaxton Schultz (age 25) · Nolan DeVos (age 22) · Deylen Miley (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%21.5%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—40

CMD4045

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	6.75	5.00	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	0	4	20	3	5	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	25.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	6.75	5.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	2.2%	7.39	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	2.2%	7.39	4.76	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	6	71	355	80	47	7	18%	2.1	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	2.0%	7.39	4.12	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	17.3%	12.3%	5.0%	0.9%	4.23	3.69	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	17.3%	12.3%	5.0%	0.9%	4.23	3.69	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	22	111	474	104	50	6	71%	3.6	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	1.3%	4.23	3.28	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	4.2%	5.70	5.37	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.7%	4.2%	5.70	5.37	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	28	25	115	515	141	68	18	89%	4.1	27.4%	13.2%	14.2%	3.5%	5.70	4.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	23	23	135	570	123	83	18	100%	5.9	21.5%	14.6%	6.9%	3.2%	5.25	5.25	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	135	571	124	79	18	100%	5.9	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	3.1%	5.14	5.13	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	133	563	123	76	18	100%	6.1	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	3.2%	5.09	5.10	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	129	546	118	73	18	100%	5.9	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.3%	5.10	5.14	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	124	521	112	70	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	13.4%	8.0%	3.4%	5.18	5.25	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	116	490	103	67	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.6%	5.33	5.43	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	59	249	54	35	8	100%	5.9	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	3.1%	5.14	5.13	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	85	359	78	48	11	100%	6.1	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	3.2%	5.09	5.10	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	98	414	90	55	14	100%	6.1	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.3%	5.10	5.14	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	101	426	91	57	15	100%	5.9	21.4%	13.4%	8.0%	3.4%	5.18	5.25	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	17	17	100	422	89	58	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.6%	5.33	5.43	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	442	1866	402	253	63	100%	6.0	21.5%	13.6%	8.0%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	114	29	100%	6.0	21.5%	13.6%	8.0%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		96	53	301	1364	260	191	34	55%	3.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.1%	2.5%	5.57	4.62	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	35	200	907	173	127	22	55%	3.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.1%	2.5%	5.57	4.62	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corey Avant (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	21.5%	14.6%	3.2%	—	5.12	21.8%	8.2%	398	-0.13	—	—	—
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	78
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	75
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	75
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	75
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	74
Kyle Dowdy R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	18.7%	10.0%	3.1%	.344	4.88	18.4%	4.5%	125	+0.37	2.98	606	74
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	74
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	74
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	74
Bryce Jarvis R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SP-	4.14	19.4%	10.3%	2.5%	.281	5.01	17.0%	6.5%	227	+0.87	4.14	536	74
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	74
Ryan Atkinson R 2018 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP-	5.08	21.1%	13.5%	3.7%	.303	4.14	21.2%	7.3%	54	-0.94	4.14	338	74
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	74
Cam Sanders R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	22.2%	14.8%	3.1%	.232	4.30	25.8%	9.7%	170	-0.53	3.22	519	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	129	21.6%	13.8%	1.28	5.18
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44