Deivi Villafana — OGILVIE

Deivi Villafana P Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%16.4%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD4050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.39	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.39	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.37	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.0%	6.56	3.75	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.0%	6.56	3.75	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	18.5%	4.0%	14.5%	1.8%	6.56	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%	5.80	4.62	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%	5.80	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CIN	16	11	66	291	58	16	6	69%	4.1	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	2.1%	4.75	3.25	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CIN	8	7	33	151	36	13	6	88%	4.1	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	4.0%	7.91	4.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	100	421	77	23	12	100%	5.9	18.3%	5.4%	12.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.22	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	101	426	82	23	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	5.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	101	426	85	23	12	100%	5.9	20.0%	5.5%	14.5%	2.9%	4.13	4.09	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	99	420	84	24	12	100%	5.8	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	3.0%	4.13	4.13	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	96	407	81	23	12	100%	6.0	19.9%	5.8%	14.1%	3.1%	4.18	4.21	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	92	389	76	23	12	100%	6.1	19.6%	6.0%	13.6%	3.2%	4.28	4.34	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	87	366	71	23	12	100%	6.2	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	3.4%	4.42	4.52	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	81	341	64	23	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	6.6%	12.3%	3.6%	4.60	4.72	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	75	315	64	20	12	100%	6.2	20.4%	6.2%	14.2%	3.9%	4.65	4.68	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	289	58	19	12	100%	6.2	19.9%	6.7%	13.2%	4.2%	4.82	4.93	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	33	10	6	100%	6.1	18.3%	5.4%	12.9%	3.1%	4.41	4.35	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	67	283	55	15	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	5.4%	13.9%	3.1%	4.32	4.25	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	80	338	67	19	11	100%	6.2	20.0%	5.5%	14.5%	3.1%	4.26	4.22	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	85	359	72	20	11	100%	6.1	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	3.2%	4.26	4.26	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	86	363	72	21	12	100%	6.1	19.9%	5.8%	14.1%	3.3%	4.31	4.34	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	84	355	70	21	12	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.0%	13.6%	3.5%	4.42	4.48	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	80	338	65	21	12	100%	6.2	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	3.7%	4.57	4.67	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	75	317	60	21	12	100%	6.2	18.9%	6.6%	12.3%	3.9%	4.76	4.88	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	60	18	12	100%	5.8	20.4%	6.2%	14.2%	4.2%	4.82	4.85	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	65	274	55	18	12	100%	5.9	19.9%	6.7%	13.2%	4.5%	5.00	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	123	734	3098	608	185	110	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.0%	13.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.15	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	50	30	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.0%	13.7%	3.6%	4.50	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		41	26	155	706	108	46	20	63%	3.8	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	2.8%	5.94	4.17	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	34	200	913	140	60	26	63%	3.8	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	2.8%	5.94	4.17	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Deivi Villafana (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	16.4%	5.3%	2.9%	—	4.14	19.2%	13.8%	302	-0.24	—	—	—
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	86
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	86
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	84
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	83
Joey Wagman R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	24	SP-	3.41	14.8%	5.3%	1.6%	.320	3.74	15.8%	7.0%	148	+0.33	3.31	238	82
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	81
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	81
Joe DeMers R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	13.6%	4.9%	3.5%	.329	3.98	10.6%	3.7%	72	-0.49	3.49	167	81
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	80
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Michael Rucker R 2017 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP-	3.22	18.9%	5.8%	1.8%	.298	4.43	19.1%	11.7%	208	+1.21	3.22	589	80
Adam Mazur R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	22	SP-	3.22	18.0%	4.9%	1.9%	.326	4.90	17.7%	10.8%	264	+1.68	3.22	360	79
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	79
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	78
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	78
Brock Stewart R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.9%	6.4%	3.2%	.343	3.46	20.9%	14.1%	304	-0.71	1.51	618	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	87	19.4%	5.9%	1.25	4.34
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98