Deivi Villafana

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#582ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKCIN	5	0	9	4.15	1.37	24.3%	2.7%	—	K 24.3% · BB 2.7% · FIP 1.39
2025	22	ROKCIN	12	8	47	6.56	2.99	18.5%	4.0%	—	K 12.6% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.75
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	18	99	5.80	3.65	21.3%	6.6%	—	K 16.0% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.62
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.66	4.66	16.8%	7.0%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBCIN	4	4	23	4.69	4.65	18.4%	6.9%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBCIN	6	6	37	4.61	4.57	19.3%	7.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Angel Araiza (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%16.8%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.39	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.39	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.37	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.0%	6.56	3.75	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.0%	6.56	3.75	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	18.5%	4.0%	14.5%	1.8%	6.56	2.99	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%	5.80	4.62	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%	5.80	4.62	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.7%	5.80	3.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.8%	7.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	75	316	58	22	10	100%	5.8	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.51	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	302	58	21	9	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.47	4.43	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	68	289	56	20	9	100%	6.2	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	3.1%	4.46	4.46	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	274	53	20	9	100%	5.9	19.3%	7.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	60	253	48	19	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.61	4.67	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	60	252	52	18	9	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.0%	13.8%	3.6%	4.59	4.58	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	53	223	45	16	8	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	3.8%	4.70	4.78	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	46	193	38	15	8	100%	5.7	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	4.1%	4.88	5.01	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	23	97	18	7	3	100%	5.8	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.3%	4.69	4.65	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	37	156	30	11	5	100%	6.2	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.57	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	35	13	6	100%	6.1	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	3.4%	4.60	4.60	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	38	14	7	100%	5.8	19.3%	7.2%	12.1%	3.5%	4.65	4.68	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	46	194	37	15	7	100%	5.8	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	3.7%	4.76	4.82	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	8	8	48	203	42	14	8	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.0%	13.8%	3.9%	4.75	4.74	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	38	14	8	100%	6.3	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.1%	4.87	4.95	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	40	169	34	13	7	100%	5.7	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	4.4%	5.06	5.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	327	1381	271	100	51	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.75	4.40	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	61	31	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.75	4.40	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		41	26	155	706	108	46	20	63%	3.8	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	2.8%	5.94	4.17	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	34	200	913	140	60	26	63%	3.8	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	2.8%	5.94	4.17	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 66 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.15 (+0.90)K% 19.9% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.93%	—	×0.740	14.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.50%	—	×1.180	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 33 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.53 (+1.17)K% 23.8% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.84%	—	×0.770	18.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.61%	—	×1.150	9.90%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 47 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.75 (+0.74)K% 18.5% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.50%	—	×0.680	12.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.96%	—	×1.250	4.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.252	×1.400	1.97%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Reds · 9 IPFIP 1.39 → 2.13 (+0.74)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.680	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.70%	—	×1.250	3.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.136	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.39 → 2.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Deivi Villafana (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.47	19.0%	12.0%	215	-0.19	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	95
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	89
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	88
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	87
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	86
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	85
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	85
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	84
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	84
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	84
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	83
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	63	19.2%	7.2%	1.30	4.59
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Justin Speier ('09)	3.4	56	20.4%	8.0%	1.44	4.11
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*