Deivi Villafana
P
Daytona Tortugas
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 175 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%16.4%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%9.4%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Reds | 5 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.3% | 2.7% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 1.39 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Reds | 5 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 24.3% | 2.7% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 1.37 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 8 | 47 | 227 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 67% | 3.9 | 12.6% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 6.56 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 8 | 47 | 227 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 67% | 3.9 | 18.5% | 4.0% | 14.5% | 1.8% | 6.56 | 2.99 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 15 | 10 | 62 | 269 | 54 | 14 | 6 | 67% | 4.2 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 52 | 221 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.63 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 115 | 490 | 90 | 30 | 12 | — | — | 18.4% | 6.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.37 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 42 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 45 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 54 | 226 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.7 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 42 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 47 | 197 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.7 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 45 | 190 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 35 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 45 | 282 | 1192 | 236 | 88 | 37 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.09 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 62 | 26 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 18 | 118 | 533 | 78 | 29 | 12 | 56% | 3.7 | 14.5% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 5.12 | 3.74 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 31 | 200 | 906 | 132 | 49 | 20 | 56% | 3.7 | 14.5% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 5.12 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Deivi Villafana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.33 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 162 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Nick Payero R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 89 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 86 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 86 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 85 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 85 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 85 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 16.6% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .294 | 5.49 | 15.1% | 6.0% | 57 | +1.45 | 2.72 | 200 | 84 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 83 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 83 |
| Collin Lowe R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.71 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .292 | 3.22 | 15.1% | 11.2% | 75 | -0.49 | 3.22 | 165 | 83 |
| Steven Bruce R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | .300 | 3.62 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 94 | -0.08 | 3.62 | 148 | 82 |
| Matt Peacock R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 82 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 82 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 82 |
| Luis Santos R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 81 |
| Joe DeMers R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.04 | 10.6% | 3.7% | 72 | -0.41 | 3.49 | 167 | 81 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.93 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 121 | +0.54 | 3.93 | 223 | 81 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 81 |
| Angel Araiza R 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 80 |
| Tyler Davis R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.84 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .349 | 4.39 | 12.0% | 6.5% | 196 | -0.45 | 4.17 | 294 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 52 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 1.17 | 4.43 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Jake McGee ('22) | 8 | 44 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 4.27 |