Collin Lowe

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	23	ROKMIA	4	2	11	1.59	2.04	19.6%	4.3%	—	K 19.6% · BB 4.3% · FIP 2.00
2023	24	MIX3 levels	23	13	100	3.68	3.20	19.5%	5.6%	—	K 15.2% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.62
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	4	80	4.37	2.70	18.6%	4.1%	—	K 15.1% · BB 3.9% · FIP 3.11
2025	26	No MLB games played
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	—	—	0	4.15	4.15	21.0%	6.5%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBMIA	12	0	13	4.24	4.30	21.0%	7.0%	0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	30	MLBMIA	18	0	19	4.38	4.47	20.8%	7.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsConnor Schultz (age 25) · Edwin Quirarte (age 28) · Tiago Da Silva (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%21.0%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	4	2	11	46	9	2	0	50%	2.8	19.6%	4.3%	15.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.00	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	4	2	11	46	9	2	0	50%	2.8	19.6%	4.3%	15.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	100	425	83	24	8	57%	4.4	15.2%	6.2%	9.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.62	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	13	100	425	83	24	8	57%	4.4	19.5%	5.6%	13.9%	1.9%	3.68	3.20	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	15.1%	3.9%	11.2%	1.4%	4.37	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	15.1%	3.9%	11.2%	1.4%	4.37	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	18.6%	4.1%	14.5%	1.2%	4.37	2.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	6.5%	14.5%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	182	38	13	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	3.1%	4.24	4.30	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	35	0	37	156	33	12	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	3.3%	4.38	4.47	+0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIA	31	0	32	136	28	11	5	0%	1.0	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	12	0	13	55	12	4	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	3.1%	4.24	4.30	+0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	18	0	19	80	17	6	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	3.3%	4.38	4.47	+0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIA	20	0	21	89	18	7	3	0%	1.1	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	46	17	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.5%	13.3%	3.3%	4.41	4.13	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	65	27	0%	1.1	20.8%	7.5%	13.3%	3.3%	4.41	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		55	19	192	809	125	42	13	35%	3.5	15.4%	5.1%	10.3%	1.6%	3.84	3.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	20	200	843	130	43	13	35%	3.5	15.4%	5.1%	10.3%	1.6%	3.84	3.31	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 75 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.11 (+0.77)K% 20.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.39%	—	×0.740	15.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.29%	—	×1.180	3.88%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷0.888	×1.300	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 6 IPFIP 5.96 → 6.15 (+0.19)K% 2.9% → 2.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	2.94%	—	×0.860	2.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×0.900	10.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.925	×1.100	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 5.96 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 91 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.62 (+0.86)K% 20.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.53%	—	×0.740	15.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.180	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.924	×1.300	1.85%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 5 IPFIP 8.50 → 8.74 (+0.24)K% 12.0% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.00%	—	×0.860	10.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×0.900	14.40%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷1.031	×1.100	8.54%

Result: FIP 8.50 → 8.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 5 IPFIP 5.00 → 5.44 (+0.44)K% 10.0% → 8.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.00%	—	×0.810	8.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.091	×1.200	5.50%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 5.00 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Marlins · 11 IPFIP 2.00 → 2.66 (+0.67)K% 19.6% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.57%	—	×0.680	13.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.250	5.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.852	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Collin Lowe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	21.0%	6.5%	3.0%	—	4.46	20.8%	13.4%	112	+0.31	—	—	—
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	79
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	78
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	78
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	74
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	74
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	73
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	72
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	72
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	72
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	72
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	71
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	71
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	71
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	69
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	69
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	69
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	69
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	41	20.9%	7.1%	1.23	4.30
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*