Collin Lowe — OGILVIE

Collin Lowe P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%18.2%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	4	2	11	46	9	2	0	50%	2.8	19.6%	4.3%	15.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.00	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	4	2	11	46	9	2	0	50%	2.8	19.6%	4.3%	15.2%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	100	425	83	24	8	57%	4.4	15.2%	6.2%	9.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.62	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	13	100	425	83	24	8	57%	4.4	15.2%	6.2%	9.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.62	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	13	100	425	83	24	8	57%	4.4	19.5%	5.6%	13.9%	1.9%	3.68	3.20	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	15.1%	3.9%	11.2%	1.4%	4.37	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	15.1%	3.9%	11.2%	1.4%	4.37	3.11	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	4	80	338	63	14	4	14%	2.9	18.6%	4.1%	14.5%	1.2%	4.37	2.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	MIA	4	0	4	17	3	1	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	5.4%	12.8%	2.8%	4.19	4.19	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	51	0	53	225	42	13	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	5.9%	12.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.29	+0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	49	0	51	215	40	14	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	0	19	80	15	5	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	5.9%	12.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.29	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	27	0	28	118	22	8	4	0%	1.0	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	47	200	37	12	6	0%	1.1	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.32	3.99	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	51	25	0%	1.1	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.32	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		55	19	192	809	125	42	13	35%	3.5	15.4%	5.1%	10.3%	1.6%	3.84	3.31	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	20	200	843	130	43	13	35%	3.5	15.4%	5.1%	10.3%	1.6%	3.84	3.31	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Collin Lowe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	18.2%	5.4%	2.8%	—	4.35	18.6%	12.5%	104	+0.16	—	—	—
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	81
Casey Sadler R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	27	SW	3.37	15.2%	3.4%	2.1%	.333	3.85	19.6%	12.5%	181	+0.48	2.21	385	79
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	77
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	76
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	76
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	76
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	74
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	74
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	74
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	73
Vance Worley R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SW	3.92	15.2%	5.2%	2.6%	.296	4.72	13.4%	4.9%	220	+0.80	3.92	411	73
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	73
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	72
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	72
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	72
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	71
Jake Brigham R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	27	SW	3.09	15.0%	6.5%	0.8%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	108	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	18.5%	5.9%	1.15	4.27
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97