Collin Lowe
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
+0.8
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.25
FIP4.25
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%13.4%
IP79
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 4 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 23 | 13 | 100 | 425 | 83 | 24 | 8 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 3.68 | 3.60 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 28 | 4 | 80 | 338 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 15.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 4.37 | 3.20 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 72 | 27 | 9 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 71 | 27 | 9 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 69 | 27 | 9 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 67 | 27 | 9 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 64 | 26 | 9 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 25 | 9 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 53 | 24 | 9 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 19 | 192 | 809 | 125 | 42 | 13 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.34 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 20 | 200 | 843 | 130 | 44 | 14 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.34 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Collin Lowe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.34 | 21.7% | 13.2% | 227 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 94 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 90 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 90 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 88 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 87 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 87 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 87 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 86 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 86 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 86 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 86 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 86 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 85 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 85 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 85 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .174 | 3.39 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.66 | 2.27 | 445 | 84 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 84 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .276 | 3.94 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.48 | 3.46 | 295 | 84 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.05 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 106 | +0.87 | 3.18 | 253 | 84 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $11M | +$6M | ||