Collin Lowe
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
K%21.6%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 4 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 2.8 | 19.6% | 4.3% | 15.2% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 2.00 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 4 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 2.8 | 19.6% | 4.3% | 15.2% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 2.04 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 13 | 100 | 425 | 83 | 24 | 8 | 57% | 4.4 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 3.68 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 13 | 100 | 425 | 83 | 24 | 8 | 57% | 4.4 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.20 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 4 | 80 | 338 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 14% | 2.9 | 15.1% | 3.9% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 4.37 | 3.22 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 4 | 80 | 338 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 14% | 2.9 | 18.6% | 4.1% | 14.5% | 1.2% | 4.37 | 2.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 0 | 80 | 336 | 72 | 29 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.14 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 73 | 28 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 19 | 192 | 809 | 125 | 42 | 14 | 35% | 3.5 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 3.84 | 3.41 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 20 | 200 | 843 | 130 | 43 | 15 | 35% | 3.5 | 15.4% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 3.84 | 3.41 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Collin Lowe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.49 | 21.5% | 12.8% | 152 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 78 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 78 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 76 |
| Heath Holder R 2025 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.12 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .263 | 5.32 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.20 | 2.74 | 367 | 76 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 76 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 75 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 75 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 74 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 74 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 74 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 74 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 74 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 73 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 73 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 73 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 73 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 1.19 | 4.38 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |