Carson Roccaforte

CF Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 25 L/L 5'11" / 195 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1416ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422A+KC535.208/.296/.342103436—.163/.234/.258
202523AA/A+/INTL3 orgs635.260/.378/.472205089—.201/.292/.359
202624AAA/AA2 orgs622.257/.343/.519353286—.214/.277/.419
2027PROJMLE25MLBKC4.204/.272/.37100830.0
2028PROJ31% MLB26MLBKC79.205/.275/.37233840.1
2029PROJ42% MLB27MLBKC118.206/.276/.37044840.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$1M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed66
BB%48
Max EV44
Z-Con%43
Chase%27
K%14
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%
CompsDrew Robinson (age 25) · John Rave (age 25) · Joey Wiemer (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .272 / .371
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP279
ISO179
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.8 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +1.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.10.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-1$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$1M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 AColumbia Fireflies — 122101 26620 19311 113 257380356737 99366 2516 338 57 — — — — — —
202321 ROKACL Royals — 1615 8100 030 50 5335336001.133 67615 190 476 137 — — — — — —
202422 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 535471 9823510 561393 3413 208296342638 134269 2610 288 36 — — — — — —
202523 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 212183 531525 27612 105 290387475862 186410 2913 383 95 — — — — — —
202523 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 339279 6615513 551012 337 237366466832 229317 3016 366 70 — — — — — —
202523 INTLSurprise Saguaros — 8468 19802 13281 72 279402485888 206425 3315 386 147 — — — — — —
202624 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 118102 29705 13370 110 284365500865 216393 3111 372 92 — — — — — —
202624 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 504438 11019530 521445 2117 251337523860 272295 2910 368 84 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 A MLEColumbia Fireflies — 122106 20410 14441 113 189289245535 57319 3611 252 57 — — — — — —
202321 ROK MLEACL Royals — 1615 6100 040 50 400400467867 67476 250 371 137 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 535485 791638 421723 3413 163234258492 95227 328 222 36 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 212192 471324 18732 105 245316396712 151371 348 308 95 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 339294 5110410 401272 337 173277337614 163253 3712 271 70 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 118106 26604 9440 110 245304415719 170361 378 304 92 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 504455 9415524 351765 2117 207271420690 213256 357 293 84 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 138121 26510 14491 163 215301273574 58351 3610 266 66 — — — — — —
202321 A RAW2 teams — 138116 34720 19341 163 293397388785 95405 2514 354 66 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 535485 791638 421723 3413 163234258492 95229 328 222 36 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 535471 9823510 561393 3413 208296342638 134269 2610 288 36 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE3 teams — 635558 11327716 672315 5014 203294362656 159308 3611 285 79 — — — — — —
202523 A+ RAW3 teams — 635530 13838720 951905 5014 260378472849 211364 3015 374 79 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 622561 11921527 442205 3217 212275412687 200286 357 295 86 — — — — — —
202624 AA RAW2 teams — 622540 13926535 651815 3217 257343519861 261313 2910 369 86 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE2 teams — 138122 26510 14491 163 213301270572 57337 3610 266 66 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 535485 791638 421723 3413 163234258492 95227 328 222 36 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE3 teams — 635558 11327716 672315 5014 203294362656 159298 3611 285 79 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 622568 11921527 442205 3217 210275407682 197276 357 295 86 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 535485 791638 421723 3413 163234258492 95227 328 222 36 — — — — — —
202523 A+ MLE3 teams — 635558 11327716 672315 5014 203294362656 159298 3611 285 79 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 622568 11921527 442205 3217 210275407682 197276 357 295 86 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEKC 2% 380344 7214314 301283 146 207276382658 175281 348 291 83 -8 +0 +3 +1 +8 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXKC 2% 44 0000 010 00 204272371643 167279 250 285 83 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEKC 31% 254230 48929 20842 94 209278383661 174281 338 293 84 -5 +0 +2 +1 +6 0.4
202927 MLB MLEKC 42% 281255 5310210 22922 104 210279382661 172281 338 293 84 -5 +0 +2 +1 +6 0.4
203028 MLB MLEKC 48% 297269 5611210 24962 94 210279379658 169281 328 292 84 -6 +0 +1 +1 +6 0.3
203129 MLB MLEKC 49% 296268 5611210 24952 84 209278374652 165280 328 290 82 -6 +0 +1 +1 +6 0.2
203230 MLB MLEKC 50% 294267 551129 23942 63 208277368645 160278 328 287 80 -7 +0 -0 +1 +6 0.0
202826 MLB CTXKC 31% 7972 16313 6261 31 205275372646 166279 338 287 84 -1 +0 +1 +0 +2 0.1
202927 MLB CTXKC 42% 118107 22414 9391 42 206276370646 164279 338 287 84 -2 +0 +1 +0 +3 0.2
203028 MLB CTXKC 48% 142129 26514 11461 42 206276367643 161278 328 286 84 -3 +0 +1 +1 +3 0.1
203129 MLB CTXKC 49% 146132 26514 12471 42 206275363638 157277 328 284 82 -3 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.1
203230 MLB CTXKC 50% 148134 27514 12471 32 204274357631 153276 328 281 80 -3 -0 -0 +1 +3 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 633574 11722519 502055 189 204273359632 155277 328 285 75 -13 +0 +2 +2 +14 0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 12123520 512115 189 205274363637 158279 328 285 75 -13 +0 +2 +2 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 35623204 64512927107 296120426 18269 201274359633 157281 348 279 75 -33 +1 +7 +6 +35 1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 11924520 542205 3313 203277364641 161283 348 279 75 -13 +0 +3 +2 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 504 PAwOBA .362 → .293 (−68)K% 28.6% → 34.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.57%÷1.000×1.220——34.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.92%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0127.03%
HBP% /PA0.99%—×0.870—×1.0120.87%
Singles /BIP19.05%÷1.000×0.920×0.969×1.01217.18%
Doubles /BIP6.46%÷1.000×0.840×0.969×1.0125.32%
Triples /BIP1.70%÷1.000×0.940×0.969×1.0121.57%
Home runs /BIP10.20%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0128.26%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .362 → .293; ISO .272 → .219; BABIP .295 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 118 PAwOBA .362 → .304 (−57)K% 31.4% → 37.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.36%÷1.000×1.200——37.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.17%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0487.35%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP26.15%÷1.000×0.930×0.993×1.04825.32%
Doubles /BIP10.77%÷1.000×0.830×0.993×1.0489.31%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.993×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0485.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .362 → .304; ISO .216 → .167; BABIP .393 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 339 PAwOBA .359 → .271 (−88)K% 29.8% → 37.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.79%÷1.007×1.270——37.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.22%÷0.981×0.710—×0.99811.72%
HBP% /PA0.59%—×0.790—×0.9980.47%
Singles /BIP18.54%÷1.027×0.920×0.950×0.99815.74%
Doubles /BIP8.43%÷1.055×0.810×0.950×0.9986.14%
Triples /BIP2.81%÷1.012×0.850×0.950×0.9982.24%
Home runs /BIP7.30%÷0.983×0.800—×0.9985.93%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 102, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .359 → .271; ISO .229 → .173; BABIP .317 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 212 PAwOBA .374 → .308 (−66)K% 28.8% → 34.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.77%÷1.022×1.220——34.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.74%÷1.059×0.700—×1.0278.65%
HBP% /PA0.94%—×0.870—×1.0270.84%
Singles /BIP25.41%÷1.034×0.920×1.005×1.02723.34%
Doubles /BIP12.30%÷0.984×0.840×1.005×1.02710.84%
Triples /BIP1.64%÷0.900×0.940×1.005×1.0271.77%
Home runs /BIP4.10%÷1.077×0.800—×1.0273.13%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .374 → .308; ISO .186 → .155; BABIP .410 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 535 PAwOBA .283 → .222 (−61)K% 26.0% → 32.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.98%÷1.024×1.270——32.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.47%÷0.967×0.710—×1.0127.78%
HBP% /PA0.56%—×0.790—×1.0120.45%
Singles /BIP18.07%÷0.988×0.920×0.965×1.01216.42%
Doubles /BIP6.93%÷1.113×0.810×0.965×1.0124.92%
Triples /BIP1.51%÷1.150×0.850×0.965×1.0121.09%
Home runs /BIP3.01%÷0.959×0.800—×1.0122.54%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .283 → .222; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .269 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 122 PAwOBA .333 → .252 (−81)K% 25.4% → 36.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.41%÷0.952×1.360——36.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.57%÷0.976×0.690—×1.01511.17%
HBP% /PA0.82%—×0.780—×1.0150.65%
Singles /BIP25.71%÷0.970×0.920×0.950×1.01523.51%
Doubles /BIP8.57%÷1.023×0.830×0.950×1.0156.70%
Triples /BIP2.86%÷1.150×0.910×0.950×1.0152.18%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.089×0.800—×1.0150.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .333 → .252; ISO .099 → .069; BABIP .366 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 16 PAwOBA .494 → .371 (−123)K% 18.8% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷1.000×1.440——27.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.982×0.620—×0.9850.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP58.33%÷1.029×0.820—×0.98545.78%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9855.91%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.932×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .494 → .371; ISO .067 → .046; BABIP .615 → .476. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .