Andrew Bolívar — OGILVIE

Andrew Bolívar P FCL Cardinals

+0.1 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2030

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.3%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.1%

IP29

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2030

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	12	10	43	185	53	26	1	19.5%	17.6%	0.5%	4.22	3.96	+0.5
2025	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	11	4	30	151	28	31	2	12.6%	25.7%	1.5%	8.19	6.12	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	STL	29	—	29	122	27	14	4	22.3%	11.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	STL	30	—	30	128	29	13	4	22.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.42	+0.2
2028	22	MLB	STL	32	—	32	134	32	13	4	23.7%	9.5%	2.8%	4.32	4.21	+0.3
2029	23	MLB	STL	33	—	33	139	34	13	4	24.4%	9.0%	2.8%	4.17	4.07	+0.3
2030	24	MLB	STL	34	—	34	143	36	12	4	24.9%	8.7%	2.7%	4.05	3.97	+0.4
2031	25	MLB	STL	34	—	34	144	37	12	4	25.3%	8.6%	2.7%	3.97	3.91	+0.4
2032	26	MLB	STL	34	—	34	144	37	12	4	25.5%	8.5%	2.7%	3.92	3.89	+0.4
2033	27	MLB	STL	34	—	34	143	37	12	4	25.5%	8.5%	2.7%	3.91	3.90	+0.4
2034	28	MLB	STL	33	—	33	141	36	12	4	25.5%	8.6%	2.8%	3.92	3.93	+0.4
2035	29	MLB	STL	33	—	33	138	35	12	4	25.4%	8.7%	2.8%	3.95	3.97	+0.4
2036	30	MLB	STL	32	—	32	133	34	12	4	25.2%	8.8%	2.9%	4.00	4.03	+0.3
2037	31	MLB	STL	30	—	30	129	32	11	4	24.9%	8.9%	2.9%	4.07	4.11	+0.3
2038	32	MLB	STL	29	—	29	124	30	11	4	24.6%	9.0%	3.0%	4.14	4.19	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			23	14	72	336	55	71	3	16.4%	21.2%	1.0%	5.85	4.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—			64	39	200	929	152	196	8	16.4%	21.2%	1.0%	5.85	4.93	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Bolívar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.3%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.23	23.7%	14.0%	95	-0.37	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	20	SU	3.83	23.6%	11.4%	2.3%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.48	2.50	103	91
Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	91
Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	20	SU	4.34	19.4%	11.9%	2.5%	.316	4.01	14.2%	3.6%	122	-0.33	3.99	157	90
Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.94	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.06	3.11	213	89
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	20	SU	4.09	25.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.80	3.20	104	89
Kendeglys Virguez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	20	SU	4.49	22.5%	10.8%	3.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	101	89
Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	89
Caleb Freeman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	198	89
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	20	SU	3.71	23.5%	13.2%	1.7%	.286	4.77	17.2%	6.2%	157	+1.06	3.71	181	88
Albert Polanco R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SU	3.99	24.6%	12.1%	2.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	135	88
Mason Fox R 2027 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.61	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.02	3.59	112	88
Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	88
Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.88	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.01	3.00	318	88
Kobe Robinson R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	21	SU	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	88
Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	20	SU	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.19	16.1%	7.1%	239	-0.23	4.15	337	88
Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	20	SU	4.76	20.4%	10.7%	3.7%	.304	5.89	15.3%	8.1%	19	+1.13	4.76	134	87
Max Gieg R 2027 · 5.14 FIP	21	SU	5.14	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.64	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.50	3.95	108	87
Justin Meis R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	21	SU	4.02	25.6%	13.6%	2.5%	.300	5.11	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.09	3.64	341	87
Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	87
Ty Tice R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.52	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.77	3.24	288	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$4M