Jay Beshears
1B Pensacola Blue Wahoos| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+/A/INTL3 orgs | 541 | .228/.335/.326 | 5 | 7 | 54 | — | .200/.280/.284 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA/A+MIA | 243 | .217/.328/.367 | 5 | 4 | 50 | — | .170/.261/.282 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAMIA | 288 | .222/.325/.440 | 11 | 11 | 68 | — | .186/.266/.364 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBMIA | 3 | .187/.264/.310 | 0 | 0 | 68 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBMIA | 64 | .189/.266/.313 | 1 | 1 | 70 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 114 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 281 | 314 | 595 | 86 | 324 | 29 | 4 | 270 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 344 | 308 | 67 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 64 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 218 | 288 | 308 | 597 | 91 | 264 | 19 | 7 | 271 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 133 | 97 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 320 | 496 | 454 | 950 | 134 | 414 | 20 | 23 | 428 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 64 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 254 | 192 | 446 | 77 | 167 | 34 | 12 | 219 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 39 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 308 | 421 | 729 | 132 | 345 | 21 | 0 | 324 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 204 | 169 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 201 | 332 | 355 | 687 | 154 | 256 | 25 | 15 | 313 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 288 | 248 | 55 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 72 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 222 | 325 | 440 | 765 | 218 | 265 | 25 | 11 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 114 | 108 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 219 | 250 | 469 | 74 | 296 | 41 | 3 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 344 | 317 | 58 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 80 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 183 | 238 | 259 | 497 | 76 | 229 | 23 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 133 | 106 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 245 | 389 | 349 | 738 | 104 | 335 | 28 | 17 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 39 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 282 | 395 | 677 | 132 | 321 | 26 | 0 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 204 | 177 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 65 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 153 | 257 | 260 | 517 | 107 | 211 | 32 | 11 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 288 | 258 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 88 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 186 | 266 | 364 | 630 | 178 | 234 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 114 | 108 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 219 | 250 | 469 | 74 | 300 | 41 | 3 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 114 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 281 | 314 | 595 | 86 | 324 | 29 | 4 | 270 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 541 | 479 | 95 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 133 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 198 | 281 | 280 | 561 | 81 | 261 | 25 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 541 | 457 | 104 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 64 | 113 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 228 | 335 | 326 | 661 | 98 | 286 | 21 | 12 | 303 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 215 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 75 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 172 | 261 | 284 | 545 | 112 | 239 | 31 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 243 | 207 | 45 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 58 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 217 | 328 | 367 | 695 | 150 | 274 | 24 | 12 | 314 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 288 | 258 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 88 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 186 | 266 | 364 | 630 | 178 | 241 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 288 | 248 | 55 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 72 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 222 | 325 | 440 | 765 | 218 | 265 | 25 | 11 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 114 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 178 | 219 | 252 | 472 | 75 | 296 | 41 | 3 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 541 | 481 | 95 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 133 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 198 | 281 | 279 | 559 | 81 | 259 | 25 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 215 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 75 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 172 | 261 | 284 | 545 | 112 | 229 | 31 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 288 | 258 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 88 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 186 | 266 | 364 | 630 | 178 | 234 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 541 | 481 | 95 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 133 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 198 | 281 | 279 | 559 | 81 | 259 | 25 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 215 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 75 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 172 | 261 | 284 | 545 | 112 | 229 | 31 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 288 | 258 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 88 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 186 | 266 | 364 | 630 | 178 | 234 | 31 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 2% | 338 | 303 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 98 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 271 | 326 | 596 | 131 | 258 | 29 | 8 | 269 | 68 | -13 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 264 | 310 | 573 | 123 | 248 | 33 | 0 | 260 | 68 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 31% | 206 | 185 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 273 | 329 | 602 | 133 | 259 | 29 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 31% | 64 | 58 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 266 | 313 | 579 | 124 | 249 | 28 | 8 | 263 | 70 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 64 | 58 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 266 | 293 | 559 | 103 | 256 | 28 | 8 | 263 | 58 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 111 | 30 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 183 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 188 | 265 | 290 | 555 | 102 | 255 | 28 | 8 | 263 | 58 | -23 | +2 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1561 | 1396 | 264 | 70 | 7 | 25 | 120 | 451 | 30 | 30 | 9 | 189 | 268 | 303 | 571 | 114 | 256 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -14 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 109 | 29 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 188 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 188 | 266 | 299 | 565 | 112 | 255 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -24 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 288 PAwOBA .330 → .268 (−62)K% 25.0% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 12.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 8.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.06% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .330 → .268; ISO .218 → .179; BABIP .265 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 204 PAwOBA .308 → .237 (−72)K% 24.5% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.51% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.97% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷0.961 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.36% | ÷1.006 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.67% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .308 → .237; ISO .154 → .118; BABIP .256 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 39 PAwOBA .314 → .269 (−45)K% 20.5% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 24.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.027 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .269; ISO .132 → .104; BABIP .345 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 344 PAwOBA .266 → .220 (−45)K% 18.6% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.60% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.98% | ÷0.998 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.62% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 15.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷0.962 | ×0.810 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .266 → .220; ISO .091 → .076; BABIP .264 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 133 PAwOBA .425 → .332 (−93)K% 20.3% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.30% | ÷1.002 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.31% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | — | 16.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.43% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 26.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 122, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .425 → .332; ISO .134 → .106; BABIP .414 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 114 PAwOBA .263 → .198 (−65)K% 28.9% → 41.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.95% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.39% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.01% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .263 → .198; ISO .086 → .058; BABIP .324 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .