Jay Beshears — OGILVIE

Jay Beshears1B Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 24 R/R 6'3" / 220 lbs AA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION284 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP239

ISO108

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	105	24	4	1	1	5	33	3	1	0	229	281	314	595	86	324	29	4	270	69	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	344	308	67	22	0	2	25	64	6	5	3	218	288	308	597	91	264	19	7	271	69	-13	-0	—	—	+7	-0.5
2024	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	133	97	31	7	0	2	31	27	3	1	2	320	496	454	950	134	414	20	23	428	176	+12	-1	—	—	+3	1.5
2024	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	64	52	6	1	0	1	8	22	2	1	0	115	254	192	446	77	167	34	12	219	35	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	39	38	11	2	0	1	0	8	1	0	0	289	308	421	729	132	345	21	0	324	105	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	23	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	204	169	34	8	3	4	30	50	3	4	2	201	332	355	687	154	256	25	15	313	98	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	108	19	3	1	1	3	46	3	1	0	176	219	250	469	74	287	40	3	196	19	-11	+0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2024	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	344	317	56	18	0	2	17	85	6	5	3	177	232	252	485	76	227	25	5	216	32	-28	-0	—	—	+7	-2.1
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	133	105	26	5	0	2	23	36	3	1	2	248	397	352	749	105	332	27	17	337	114	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	39	38	10	2	0	1	0	10	1	0	0	263	282	395	677	132	314	26	0	263	64	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	204	177	26	6	2	3	22	69	3	4	2	147	252	254	507	107	211	34	11	232	43	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-1.0
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	108	19	3	1	1	3	46	3	1	0	176	219	250	469	74	295	40	3	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	105	24	4	1	1	5	33	3	1	0	229	281	314	595	86	324	29	4	270	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	541	478	92	26	0	4	45	138	11	7	5	192	277	272	549	79	257	26	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	541	457	104	30	0	5	64	113	11	7	5	228	335	326	661	98	286	21	12	303	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	243	215	36	8	2	4	22	79	4	4	2	167	257	279	536	112	239	33	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	243	207	45	10	3	5	30	58	4	4	2	217	328	367	695	150	274	24	12	314	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	107	19	3	1	1	3	46	3	1	0	178	219	252	472	75	287	40	3	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	541	480	92	26	0	4	45	138	11	7	5	192	277	271	548	79	256	26	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	243	215	36	8	2	4	22	79	4	4	2	167	257	279	536	112	228	33	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	107	19	3	1	1	3	46	3	1	0	178	219	252	472	75	287	40	3	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	541	480	92	26	0	4	45	138	11	7	5	192	277	271	548	79	256	26	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	243	215	36	8	2	4	22	79	4	4	2	167	257	279	536	112	228	33	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	MIA	—	284	254	45	14	2	8	22	88	6	11	0	177	259	343	601	165	233	31	8	265	65	-12	+2	+0	-5	+6	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA RAW	MIA	—	284	244	54	17	2	11	32	72	6	11	0	221	326	443	769	221	265	25	11	339	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AA MLE	MIA	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		247	33	11	262	63	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AA MLE	MIA	—	293	262	46	14	2	8	23	91	6	11	0	176	258	336	594	160	232	31	8	265	65	-12	+2	+0	-5	+6	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	31%	306	274	54	14	2	7	24	86	5	6	1	197	274	339	613	142	252	28	8	271	69	-11	+1	+0	-5	+7	-0.9
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	45%	362	324	63	16	2	8	29	101	6	7	1	194	273	330	603	136	255	28	8	276	73	-12	+1	+0	-6	+8	-1.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	31%	95	86	16	4	1	2	8	27	1	2	0	186	263	326	589	140	244	28	8	251	69	-3	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	45%	161	145	28	7	1	4	13	45	2	3	0	193	269	338	607	145	247	28	8	257	73	-5	+1	+0	-3	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	256	231	44	11	2	6	21	72	3	5	0	190	267	333	600	143	247	28	8	255	58	-9	+1	+0	-5	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	111	28	5	15	53	183	8	13	0	189	266	330	596	141	245	28	8	255	58	-22	+3	+0	-12	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	1575	1407	265	67	7	24	124	453	29	25	9	188	268	297	565	109	256	29	8	254	58	-23	+2	+0	-12	+15	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	110	28	3	10	51	187	12	10	4	189	269	299	568	110	257	29	8	254	58	-22	+2	+0	-12	+14	-1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	261	6	5	197	271	335	-5	-2	-0.5	-0.3
/162	664	15	13	-11.9	-3.8	-1.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jay Beshears (OGILVIE)	24	30	40	45	60	184/261/312	128	247	5	6	29%	8%	63	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→31	42→45	48→50	41	191/251/284	93	257	11	15	30%	6%	52	-2.2	195/269/308	113	260	13	14	29%	8%	64	-1.3	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Skyler Ewing 2017 · A	24	40→39	42→45	45→30	42	198/262/305	107	265	10	3	28%	6%	61	-1.5	198/272/342	144	272	16	4	32%	7%	74	-0.5	192/278/365	173	240	21	1	29%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→40	43→45	47→45	45	171/253/277	106	242	11	6	33%	9%	52	-2.2	190/275/295	105	266	10	5	30%	9%	64	-1.3	176/269/273	97	244	10	3	30%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Daniel Arribas 2017 · A	24	43→41	42→40	49→45	44	210/278/313	103	282	10	7	28%	7%	68	-1.0	201/276/292	91	292	7	10	31%	8%	63	-1.4	128/236/162	34	217	0	15	36%	11%	19	-1.0
✕Josh Altmann 2018 · A	24	41→39	43→45	47→50	43	206/264/318	112	259	10	12	24%	6%	65	-1.2	187/261/301	114	251	12	9	29%	7%	61	-1.5	162/247/273	112	216	13	7	30%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Connor Blair 2022 · A	24	37	39→45	48→45	45	179/255/257	79	269	6	11	34%	9%	47	-2.5	196/281/311	115	314	12	8	38%	9%	70	-0.8	152/262/269	117	243	16	5	41%	11%	52	-0.7
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→37	43→50	48→45	46	203/285/317	113	292	10	7	32%	9%	72	-0.7	194/293/340	146	311	17	5	39%	10%	82	-0.0	178/283/325	147	289	18	3	41%	11%	72	-0.5
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	195/270/310	115	258	11	11	28%	8%	65	-1.2	209/297/348	139	287	16	6	31%	9%	84	+0.2	201/298/342	142	277	17	3	32%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	35	41→45	45	45	174/251/275	101	255	8	6	33%	9%	50	-2.3	186/255/286	100	272	9	8	33%	8%	53	-2.1	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Anthony Giansanti 2013 · A	24	44→38	41→40	43→45	43	215/261/315	100	260	9	6	21%	5%	61	-1.5	223/269/296	73	283	4	6	22%	5%	60	-1.6	223/269/280	57	283	2	6	21%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Zavier Warren 2023 · AA	24	37→38	45	52→45	45	192/261/314	121	250	13	7	28%	8%	63	-1.4	192/258/304	112	258	12	7	29%	7%	59	-1.6	181/250/286	104	246	12	7	30%	8%	51	-1.6
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/280/293	102	262	10	6	29%	9%	65	-1.2	199/277/327	128	250	14	10	25%	7%	72	-0.7	186/267/323	137	222	16	12	24%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Riccio Torrez 2014 · AA	24	41→35	40	47→45	40	199/257/291	92	247	8	5	23%	4%	56	-1.9	205/257/299	94	273	7	8	27%	4%	57	-1.8	159/183/231	72	226	4	4	31%	2%	8	-1.0
✕Mark Threlkeld 2014 · A	24	39	43→45	43→40	41	198/250/314	116	264	10	4	28%	6%	58	-1.7	209/255/312	103	292	10	5	31%	5%	59	-1.7	203/242/298	95	283	11	2	32%	4%	47	-1.7
✕Ryan Mathews 2014 · A	24	40→37	45→50	47→45	41	202/255/331	129	266	12	7	29%	6%	64	-1.3	210/254/332	122	298	12	7	32%	5%	63	-1.3	201/237/321	120	287	13	5	34%	4%	52	-1.3
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	38	42→40	49→50	48	189/277/293	104	262	10	13	30%	10%	65	-1.2	203/300/302	99	285	9	11	29%	11%	76	-0.4	188/304/272	85	264	8	11	28%	12%	68	-0.6
✕Eddy Martinez 2019 · AA	24	39→41	44→45	45	41	201/244/314	113	250	13	6	26%	5%	55	-1.9	203/255/311	108	258	11	7	25%	6%	59	-1.7	169/231/245	76	209	9	3	23%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Richard Nunez 2019 · A	24	40	36→30	47→55	46	190/265/263	73	271	3	9	29%	8%	52	-2.2	209/276/302	93	290	7	6	28%	8%	65	-1.2	196/275/293	97	250	9	3	24%	9%	61	-0.3
✕Charcer Burks 2019 · AA	24	43→46	40	48→50	46	205/279/298	93	285	8	13	29%	8%	65	-1.2	204/270/286	82	289	5	14	29%	7%	59	-1.7	189/256/255	66	270	2	16	28%	7%	46	-2.0
✕Cory Vaughn 2013 · A	24	39→42	46→45	49→50	44	198/279/327	130	273	14	12	32%	8%	74	-0.6	194/266/307	113	275	12	14	32%	7%	63	-1.3	180/251/283	102	258	11	14	33%	7%	50	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps