Jay Beshears — OGILVIE

Jay Beshears1B Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 24 R/R 6'3" / 220 lbs AA HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION181 act + 120 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .259 / .297

PA120

HR2

K%33

BB%8

BABIP255

ISO121

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	108	18	2	1	1	3	49	3	1	0	167	211	231	442	65	293	43	3	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	105	24	4	1	1	5	33	3	1	0	229	281	314	595	86	324	29	4	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	541	477	91	27	0	4	46	136	11	7	5	191	277	273	550	82	253	25	9	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	3 teams	—	541	457	104	30	0	5	64	113	11	7	5	228	335	326	661	98	286	21	12	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	243	215	35	8	2	4	22	82	4	4	2	163	253	274	528	112	237	34	9	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	243	207	45	10	3	5	30	58	4	4	2	217	328	367	695	150	274	24	12	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	MIA	—	181	161	28	8	1	6	15	67	5	10	0	174	265	348	613	174	250	37	8	271	66	-7	+2	+0	-3	+5	-0.3
YTD	24	AA	MIA	—	181	154	35	11	1	7	22	52	5	10	0	227	343	448	791	221	295	29	12	353	128	+6	+2	+0	-3	+5	1.0
ROS	24	AA	MIA	2%	120	107	19	5	1	2	10	40	2	3	0	176	259	297	556	121	258	33	8	256	54	-6	+1	+0	-2	+3	-0.4
ROS	24	MLB	MIA	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						253	50	0	239	41	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	MIA	—	183	163	28	8	1	6	15	68	5	10	0	172	262	344	606	172	247	37	8	271	65	-7	+2	+0	-3	+5	-0.3
TOT	24	AA	MIA	—	301	268	47	13	2	8	25	107	7	13	0	175	263	328	590	153	252	35	8	265	61	-13	+3	+0	-5	+9	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	MIA	31%	471	421	79	20	2	10	39	150	8	10	2	188	269	316	585	128	263	32	8	265	61	-21	+1	+0	-8	+13	-1.5
2028	26	MLB	MIA	45%	498	446	85	21	2	11	41	155	8	10	2	191	271	321	591	130	265	31	8	271	65	-20	+1	+0	-9	+14	-1.3
2027	25	MLB	MIA	31%	146	131	24	6	1	3	12	47	2	3	0	183	262	313	575	130	258	32	8	249	49	-8	+1	+0	-3	+4	-0.6
2028	26	MLB	MIA	45%	222	198	37	9	1	5	18	69	4	4	1	187	268	318	586	131	260	31	8	255	53	-12	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	370	331	61	15	2	8	30	117	6	7	1	184	264	314	579	130	255	32	8	252	51	-20	+1	+0	-7	+10	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	107	26	4	14	53	206	11	12	2	184	266	315	581	131	255	32	8	252	51	-36	+2	+0	-12	+18	-2.8
Career	—			—	1987	1774	327	83	8	32	161	612	36	35	11	184	266	294	560	110	258	31	8	254	52	-107	+3	+0	-35	+56	-8.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	107	27	3	10	53	200	12	11	4	184	267	293	560	109	259	31	8	254	52	-35	+1	+0	-12	+18	-2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	114	105	24	4	1	1	5	33	3	1	0	229	281	314	595	86	324	29	4	270	65	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	344	308	67	22	0	2	25	64	6	5	3	218	288	308	597	91	264	19	7	271	65	-13	-0	—	—	+10	-0.4
2024	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	133	97	31	7	0	2	31	27	3	1	2	320	496	454	950	134	414	20	23	428	185	+13	-1	—	—	+4	1.6
2024	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	64	52	6	1	0	1	8	22	2	1	0	115	254	192	446	77	167	34	12	219	26	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	39	38	11	2	0	1	0	8	1	0	0	289	308	421	729	132	345	21	0	324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	23	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	204	169	34	8	3	4	30	50	3	4	2	201	332	355	687	154	256	25	15	313	97	-1	+0	—	—	+6	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#1Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#2Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#3Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	373	8	8	192	269	321	-7	-2	-1.1	-0.5
	/162	664	14	14	192	269	321	-11.9	-2.7	-1.9	pk7: 0
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	19	9	250	303	400	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jay Beshears (OGILVIE)	24	30	40	45	60	175/263/328	153	252	8	13	35%	8%	61	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Blair 2022 · A	24	37	39→45	48→45	45	178/255/258	80	271	7	11	34%	9%	40	-2.4	199/285/312	113	313	12	8	37%	9%	68	-0.5	163/272/277	114	257	15	5	39%	11%	52	-0.5
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	34	41→45	45	46	172/252/271	98	253	7	6	33%	9%	43	-2.2	186/255/287	101	275	10	8	33%	8%	48	-1.9	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Daniel Arribas 2017 · A	24	41→39	42→40	48→45	43	204/271/302	98	273	10	7	28%	7%	59	-1.1	198/273/287	89	286	7	10	31%	8%	56	-1.3	127/235/159	33	213	0	15	36%	11%	7	-1.0
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→28	42→45	48→50	40	187/248/281	94	262	11	15	32%	6%	43	-2.2	194/265/312	118	265	14	14	31%	8%	59	-1.1	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→39	43→45	47→45	45	172/254/283	111	243	11	6	33%	9%	47	-1.9	188/273/293	105	265	11	5	31%	9%	58	-1.2	172/265/268	95	240	10	3	30%	10%	45	-1.0
✕Joe Cronin 2018 · A	24	36	40→45	46→50	45	178/268/270	92	268	8	8	34%	9%	50	-1.7	186/274/284	98	291	9	9	36%	9%	56	-1.3	170/264/263	93	267	9	10	36%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Richard Nunez 2019 · A	24	40	36→30	47→55	46	190/265/263	73	271	3	9	29%	8%	46	-2.0	209/276/302	93	290	7	6	28%	8%	60	-1.0	196/275/293	97	250	9	3	24%	9%	56	-0.2
✕Cory Vaughn 2013 · A	24	37→41	45	49→50	43	189/270/308	118	271	12	12	33%	8%	61	-1.0	193/264/305	112	280	12	14	33%	7%	57	-1.2	182/251/287	106	263	12	14	34%	7%	44	-1.2
✕Skyler Ewing 2017 · A	24	40→39	44→50	45→30	42	200/264/318	118	264	12	3	28%	6%	60	-1.0	202/276/366	164	274	20	4	33%	7%	79	+0.3	198/283/401	203	243	26	1	30%	7%	88	+0.5
✕Charcer Burks 2019 · AA	24	42→45	41→40	48→50	45	202/277/301	99	287	9	13	31%	8%	61	-1.0	198/264/281	83	290	6	14	31%	7%	50	-1.8	177/242/242	65	263	2	16	31%	7%	30	-2.4
✕Ryan Mathews 2014 · A	24	38→35	44→45	47→45	41	194/248/318	124	260	11	7	30%	6%	53	-1.5	205/249/320	115	296	11	7	33%	5%	53	-1.5	196/232/305	109	286	11	5	35%	4%	39	-1.5
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	40→37	38→40	42→45	45	190/273/269	79	271	6	8	30%	8%	52	-1.6	172/246/239	67	256	5	8	32%	7%	33	-2.9	143/216/191	47	222	3	6	34%	7%	5	-2.9
✕Tyler Reichenborn 2022 · A	24	37→43	42→45	42→50	40	182/253/289	107	277	8	8	35%	7%	48	-1.9	202/276/293	91	279	9	12	29%	8%	59	-1.1	197/277/277	81	264	9	14	27%	8%	52	-0.8
✕Stefan Sabol 2016 · A	24	37→40	42→45	45→50	43	185/257/286	102	282	9	10	36%	8%	49	-1.8	204/269/305	101	325	9	8	37%	8%	59	-1.1	187/253/287	100	307	9	5	40%	8%	45	-0.9
✕Kyle Robinson 2012 · A	23	35	41→45	51→30	39	178/228/284	107	247	8	4	31%	6%	36	-2.7	206/255/295	89	301	5	5	31%	6%	49	-1.8	210/260/311	101	314	5	1	33%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Mark Threlkeld 2014 · A	24	39	42→45	43→40	42	196/247/306	110	258	9	4	28%	6%	49	-1.8	209/254/311	102	296	10	5	31%	5%	53	-1.5	205/242/301	96	292	12	2	33%	4%	41	-1.5
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→28	45	50	37	195/254/318	123	282	13	12	35%	6%	56	-1.3	212/270/305	93	320	9	17	34%	6%	59	-1.1	219/278/292	73	339	7	24	35%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Colin Davis 2023 · A	24	40	43→50	49→50	42	200/260/311	111	272	11	11	30%	7%	56	-1.3	186/247/306	120	255	14	11	32%	6%	50	-1.8	144/217/244	100	209	14	11	37%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Michael Suiter 2016 · A	24	40→38	38→40	49→50	37	196/245/270	75	262	6	12	27%	4%	39	-2.5	211/265/302	91	297	8	10	30%	5%	56	-1.3	210/270/301	91	300	10	8	32%	6%	55	-0.5
✕Josh Altmann 2018 · A	24	42→40	43→45	47→50	43	208/267/325	117	260	10	12	24%	6%	63	-0.8	185/259/292	107	252	10	9	30%	7%	53	-1.5	158/242/258	100	217	11	7	31%	7%	34	-1.9