Merit Jones

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#772ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AMIN	1	0	2	0.00	2.10	14.3%	0.0%	—	K 14.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.89
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	15	112	4.17	3.67	23.7%	8.7%	—	K 17.6% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.89	4.89	18.4%	10.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	6	6	35	4.76	4.71	19.5%	9.5%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	8	8	51	4.67	4.64	20.1%	9.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCooper Chandler (age 24) · Carlos Sano (age 25) · Kyle Scott (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%18.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP79

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	17.6%	10.2%	7.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.78	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	17.6%	10.2%	7.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.78	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	2.6%	4.17	3.67	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	10.1%	8.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	82	347	68	33	11	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	3.0%	4.75	4.70	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	77	324	65	30	10	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	73	308	62	29	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.64	4.64	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	69	292	59	28	9	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.68	4.72	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	64	270	54	26	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.78	4.85	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	58	244	48	24	9	100%	5.8	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.5%	4.93	5.03	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	35	148	29	14	5	100%	5.8	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.76	4.71	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	51	215	43	20	7	100%	6.4	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.64	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	56	236	48	22	7	100%	6.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	58	245	49	23	8	100%	5.8	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.73	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	56	236	47	23	8	100%	6.2	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.86	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	52	220	43	22	8	100%	5.8	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	308	1301	259	124	42	100%	7.5	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.39	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		26	26	200	844	168	80	27	100%	7.6	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.39	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		30	15	114	501	88	50	17	50%	3.8	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.09	4.74	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	26	200	876	154	88	29	50%	3.8	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.09	4.74	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 94 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.87 (+1.23)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.31%	—	×0.740	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.19%	—	×1.180	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.98%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 19 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.38 (+0.68)K% 16.5% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.48%	—	×0.770	12.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.99%	—	×1.150	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.37%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merit Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.4%	10.1%	3.1%	—	4.66	19.9%	10.6%	232	-0.23	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	94
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	88
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	86
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	85
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	85
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	84
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.87	17.1%	9.0%	186	+1.89	3.98	418	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	83
Cesar Gomez R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP-	4.86	17.4%	7.5%	4.1%	.316	5.01	14.6%	4.7%	160	+0.15	4.11	345	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	82
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.25	15.1%	3.8%	163	+0.75	2.59	367	82
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	19.7%	9.6%	1.22	4.76
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*