Merit Jones — OGILVIE

Merit Jones P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.8%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	17.6%	10.2%	7.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.78	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	17.6%	10.2%	7.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	MIN	24	12	94	403	102	33	12	50%	3.9	25.3%	8.2%	17.1%	3.0%	3.56	3.63	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIN	5	3	19	91	15	10	1	60%	3.7	16.5%	11.0%	5.5%	1.1%	7.23	3.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	113	476	102	44	14	100%	5.6	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.0%	4.51	4.47	+0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	114	482	106	43	14	100%	5.7	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.38	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	114	482	106	42	14	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.8%	13.4%	3.0%	4.38	4.35	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	112	475	105	42	14	100%	5.9	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.38	4.39	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	109	460	101	41	14	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	3.1%	4.44	4.47	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	104	440	95	40	14	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.60	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	98	413	88	39	14	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.68	4.78	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	91	385	81	38	14	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	48	203	44	19	6	100%	5.3	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.0%	4.52	4.48	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	76	321	70	28	10	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	90	380	84	33	11	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.8%	13.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.36	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	96	405	89	36	12	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.39	4.40	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	97	410	90	37	13	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.48	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	95	401	87	37	13	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.2%	12.5%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	90	380	81	36	13	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.69	4.79	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	85	359	75	35	13	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.1%	3.7%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	677	2857	620	261	92	100%	7.6	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	3.2%	4.53	4.19	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		26	26	200	844	183	77	27	100%	7.6	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	3.2%	4.53	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		30	15	114	501	88	50	17	50%	3.8	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.09	4.74	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	26	200	876	154	88	29	50%	3.8	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.09	4.74	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merit Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.8%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.40	21.8%	12.9%	341	-0.22	—	—	—
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	79
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	79
Keith Rogalla R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	21.2%	11.7%	1.3%	.344	3.68	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.16	3.10	113	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	78
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	78
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	78
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	78
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	77
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	77
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	77
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	76
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	97	21.7%	9.1%	1.22	4.52
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32