Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 13 | 87 | 405 | 76 | 31 | 7 | 59% | 3.9 | 14.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 5.82 | 3.97 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 13 | 87 | 405 | 76 | 31 | 7 | 59% | 3.9 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 1.7% | 5.82 | 3.47 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 14 | 99 | 425 | 95 | 28 | 14 | 54% | 3.8 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 4.83 | 4.90 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 14 | 99 | 425 | 95 | 28 | 14 | 54% | 3.8 | 22.4% | 6.6% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 3.87 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 48 | 240 | 41 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.1% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 7.26 | 5.16 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 48 | 240 | 41 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 7.26 | 5.29 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 49 | 214 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 6% | 1.4 | 15.8% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.69 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 2 | 49 | 214 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 6% | 1.4 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 8 | 63 | 272 | 46 | 23 | 10 | 31% | 2.4 | 14.2% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.60 | 5.27 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 8 | 63 | 272 | 46 | 23 | 10 | 31% | 2.4 | 16.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.60 | 4.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 4.75 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 152 | 85 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 151 | 37 | 345 | 1556 | 237 | 145 | 49 | 25% | 2.3 | 15.2% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 5.45 | 4.73 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 21 | 200 | 901 | 137 | 84 | 29 | 25% | 2.3 | 15.2% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 5.45 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cesar Gomez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | — | 5.13 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 38 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 81 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 81 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 81 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 80 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 80 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 79 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 79 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 78 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 77 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 77 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 76 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 76 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 75 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 75 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 75 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 75 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 75 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2023 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 39 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 1.34 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |