Cesar Gomez

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	43	0	48	7.26	5.29	17.1%	11.7%	—	K 14.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.31
2024	26	MIX2 levels	34	2	49	4.04	3.98	19.2%	9.3%	—	K 15.7% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.50
2025	27	MIX2 levels	26	8	63	5.60	4.81	16.9%	8.5%	—	K 14.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.17
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	1	0	1	4.98	4.98	16.2%	8.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBARI	9	0	9	5.02	5.09	16.6%	9.0%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsYoanner Negrin (age 31) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Rodolfo Aguirre (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%16.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	13	87	405	76	31	7	59%	3.9	14.0%	9.0%	5.0%	1.9%	5.82	4.11	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	13	87	405	76	31	7	59%	3.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	1.7%	5.82	3.47	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	14	99	425	95	28	14	54%	3.8	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	4.1%	4.83	4.86	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	14	99	425	95	28	14	54%	3.8	22.4%	6.6%	15.8%	3.3%	4.83	3.87	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	240	41	28	8	0%	1.1	14.0%	12.5%	1.5%	3.3%	7.26	5.31	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	48	240	41	28	8	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.7%	5.4%	3.3%	7.26	5.29	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	49	214	41	20	5	6%	1.4	15.7%	9.1%	6.6%	2.9%	4.04	4.50	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	49	214	41	20	5	6%	1.4	15.7%	9.1%	6.6%	2.9%	4.04	4.50	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	2	49	214	41	20	5	6%	1.4	19.2%	9.3%	9.8%	2.3%	4.04	3.98	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	8	63	272	46	23	10	31%	2.4	14.1%	8.3%	5.7%	4.0%	5.60	5.17	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	8	63	272	46	23	10	31%	2.4	14.1%	8.3%	5.7%	4.0%	5.60	5.17	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	8	63	272	46	23	10	31%	2.4	16.9%	8.5%	8.5%	3.7%	5.60	4.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.2%	8.6%	7.5%	3.2%	4.98	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	29	0	30	127	21	11	4	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.09	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	6	3	1	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	40	7	4	1	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.5%	3.4%	5.02	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	85	21	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.0%	7.5%	3.4%	5.02	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		151	37	345	1556	236	140	50	25%	2.3	15.2%	9.0%	6.1%	3.2%	5.45	4.74	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	21	200	901	137	81	29	25%	2.3	15.2%	9.0%	6.1%	3.2%	5.45	4.74	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 36 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.23 (+0.21)K% 17.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.01%	—	×0.810	13.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×1.100	7.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.333	×1.200	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 27 IPFIP 5.63 → 6.27 (+0.64)K% 16.8% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.80%	—	×0.860	14.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.40%	—	×0.900	9.36%
HR / BF /BF	4.80%	÷0.904	×1.100	5.84%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 5.63 → 6.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 38 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.07 (+0.77)K% 22.4% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.45%	—	×0.810	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.100	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷0.970	×1.200	3.36%

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 11 IPFIP 5.37 → 5.44 (+0.07)K% 11.9% → 10.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.94%	—	×0.860	10.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.40%	—	×0.900	17.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.903	×1.100	1.82%

Result: FIP 5.37 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 36 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.32 (+0.28)K% 17.1% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.11%	—	×0.810	13.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.83%	—	×1.100	14.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.322	×1.200	2.91%

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 12 IPFIP 4.69 → 5.27 (+0.58)K% 17.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.98%	—	×0.860	14.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×0.900	6.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷0.896	×1.100	4.63%

Result: FIP 4.69 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 77 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.95 (+1.11)K% 23.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.31%	—	×0.770	17.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.75%	—	×1.150	7.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷0.972	×1.250	4.34%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 22 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.55 (+0.64)K% 19.2% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.19%	—	×0.810	15.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.100	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.040	×1.200	3.50%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Gomez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	16.2%	8.6%	3.2%	—	5.09	16.6%	7.5%	30	+0.11	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	84
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	84
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	80
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	80
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	80
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	77
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	77
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	75
David Goforth R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	29	SU	4.07	14.1%	8.6%	2.0%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	256	75
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	75
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	74
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	74
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	73
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	73
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	73
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	73
Lindsey Caughel R 2018 · 5.12 FIP	27	SW	5.12	13.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	187	73
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	16.3%	8.8%	1.28	5.00
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*