Ethan Bell — OGILVIE

Ethan Bell P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%22.7%

BB%20.5%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	0	32	164	49	33	1	0%	1.2	22.1%	23.7%	-1.6%	0.9%	3.90	4.71	—
2025	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	0	32	164	49	33	1	0%	1.2	22.1%	23.7%	-1.6%	0.9%	3.90	4.71	—
2025	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	0	32	164	49	33	1	0%	1.2	29.9%	20.1%	9.8%	0.6%	3.90	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	33	0	40	180	55	26	4	0%	1.2	23.5%	16.6%	6.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.74	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	33	0	40	180	55	26	4	0%	1.2	23.5%	16.6%	6.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	33	0	40	180	55	26	4	0%	1.2	30.6%	14.4%	16.1%	2.2%	4.72	3.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	168	39	29	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	5.38	5.26	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	16	0	17	72	17	12	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	5.38	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	72	17	12	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	5.38	4.88	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	141	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	5.38	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		59	0	72	344	79	69	6	0%	1.2	22.9%	20.0%	2.8%	1.9%	4.35	4.73	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	0	200	951	217	190	18	0%	1.2	22.9%	20.0%	2.8%	1.9%	4.35	4.73	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Bell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	22.7%	20.5%	2.8%	—	5.26	23.1%	5.9%	40	-0.44	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	84
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	83
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	82
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	82
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	82
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	81
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	81
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	81
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	81
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	81
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	80
Adonis Villavicencio R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SU	4.65	21.5%	21.9%	1.1%	.316	3.93	18.0%	3.9%	90	-0.72	3.21	115	80
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	80
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	80
Eduardo Herrera R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.9%	16.8%	2.5%	.397	4.26	21.8%	3.6%	75	-0.40	4.13	127	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	23.0%	18.3%	1.09	5.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99