Jaron DeBerry — OGILVIE

Jaron DeBerry P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 178 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%18.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD5055

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.38	4.01	—
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	2.6%	4.38	3.42	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	16	16	83	348	91	41	11	100%	5.2	21.2%	13.0%	8.2%	3.8%	4.00	5.03	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB	MIL	13	13	67	285	53	23	8	100%	5.2	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB	MIL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	151	633	144	64	19	—	—	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.21	4.79	+1.1
2026 FULL	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	2.8%	4.45	4.07	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	MIL	21	21	118	499	101	39	14	100%	5.6	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	2.8%	4.36	4.29	+1.5
2028	25	MLB	MIL	24	24	138	581	124	44	16	100%	5.7	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.26	4.19	+1.9
2029	26	MLB	MIL	25	25	150	632	139	48	18	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.14	+2.2
2030	27	MLB	MIL	25	25	148	623	137	48	18	100%	5.9	21.9%	7.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.18	+2.1
2031	28	MLB	MIL	24	24	143	604	132	47	18	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	3.0%	4.23	4.26	+1.9
2032	29	MLB	MIL	23	23	137	577	124	46	18	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.33	4.39	+1.6
2033	30	MLB	MIL	21	21	128	543	115	45	18	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	3.3%	4.47	4.57	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	MIL	20	20	120	506	105	44	18	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.5%	4.65	4.77	+0.9
2035	32	MLB	MIL	18	18	111	468	95	43	18	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.1%	11.3%	3.8%	4.86	5.00	+0.5
2036	33	MLB	MIL	17	17	102	429	85	41	17	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.5%	10.3%	4.1%	5.09	5.25	+0.2
2037	34	MLB	MIL	15	15	92	391	75	39	17	100%	6.2	19.3%	10.0%	9.3%	4.4%	5.35	5.52	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	MIL	9	9	52	220	45	17	6	100%	5.8	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.26	+0.2
2028	25	MLB	MIL	16	16	92	388	83	30	11	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.23	4.16	+1.2
2029	26	MLB	MIL	20	20	119	502	110	38	14	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.16	4.11	+1.8
2030	27	MLB	MIL	21	21	126	532	117	41	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.7%	14.3%	2.8%	4.15	4.15	+1.8
2031	28	MLB	MIL	21	21	128	540	118	42	16	100%	6.1	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.20	4.23	+1.8
2032	29	MLB	MIL	21	21	124	524	113	42	16	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.30	4.36	+1.5
2033	30	MLB	MIL	20	20	119	502	107	42	16	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	3.3%	4.43	4.53	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	MIL	19	19	112	473	98	41	16	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.5%	4.61	4.73	+0.9
2035	32	MLB	MIL	17	17	104	439	89	40	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.1%	11.3%	3.7%	4.82	4.96	+0.5
2036	33	MLB	MIL	16	16	97	410	81	39	16	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.5%	10.3%	4.0%	5.05	5.21	+0.1
2037	34	MLB	MIL	14	14	84	355	68	36	15	100%	6.0	19.3%	10.0%	9.3%	4.3%	5.30	5.47	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			194	194	1156	4883	1029	407	158	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.3%	12.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.15	+16.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	178	70	27	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.3%	12.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.15	+2.9
Career	—			38	35	184	775	150	82	23	92%	4.8	19.3%	10.6%	8.7%	3.0%	4.21	4.47	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			41	38	200	842	163	89	26	92%	4.8	19.3%	10.6%	8.7%	3.0%	4.21	4.47	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaron DeBerry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	18.6%	8.1%	2.8%	—	4.20	21.3%	13.6%	406	-0.28	—	—	—
Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.47	13.4%	6.7%	230	+0.40	4.07	342	91
Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP	3.97	18.5%	7.3%	2.7%	.250	6.06	13.6%	4.7%	74	+2.09	3.97	181	90
Marcel Rentería R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.03	19.4%	8.5%	81	-0.13	3.97	194	90
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.92	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.33	3.57	252	89
Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	89
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	20.4%	7.2%	3.7%	.299	6.05	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.73	3.02	417	88
Blake Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	17.3%	6.5%	2.0%	.317	3.73	16.7%	5.6%	103	+0.15	3.58	173	88
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	18.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.323	3.85	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.33	2.82	175	88
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.66 FIP	24	SP	4.66	18.9%	9.0%	3.7%	.298	5.01	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.20	416	88
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	20.3%	8.2%	2.1%	.297	4.05	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.45	3.27	315	88
Gabe Mosser R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.63	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.84	3.79	606	87
Jack Cushing R 2027 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.85	18.2%	11.3%	332	+1.18	3.67	523	87
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.41	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.05	3.41	368	87
Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	17.1%	8.3%	2.0%	.266	4.26	19.9%	13.7%	154	+0.48	3.78	262	87
Will Ethridge R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	16.8%	5.8%	2.7%	.274	5.22	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.34	3.57	227	87
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	87
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.50	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.38	4.09	738	87
Henry Williams R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	17.5%	8.6%	2.5%	.321	6.12	15.5%	3.6%	82	+2.06	4.06	360	87
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	16.5%	9.4%	3.6%	.288	5.29	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.41	4.52	340	87
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP	4.30	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.81	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.49	3.73	540	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	123	20.9%	8.3%	1.25	4.49
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86