Jaron DeBerry — OGILVIE

Jaron DeBerry P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 178 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION129 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%18.6%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD5055

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+1.0	$5M	+$1M
2032	Arb-3	$9M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$25M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.25	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	2.6%	4.38	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	129	557	138	64	22	100%	4.9	20.1%	12.6%	7.4%	4.7%	4.69	5.61	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	129	557	138	64	22	100%	4.9	20.1%	12.6%	7.4%	4.7%	4.69	5.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	MIL	26	26	129	557	138	64	22	100%	4.9	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.9%	4.69	4.63	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIL	1	1	8	32	6	3	1	100%	7.6	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.57	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	136	589	144	67	23	—	—	24.4%	11.3%	13.1%	3.9%	4.68	5.55	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	155	655	133	52	19	100%	5.5	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	2.9%	4.44	4.37	+1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	30	30	175	739	158	57	22	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.32	4.25	+1.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	29	29	175	739	162	57	22	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.7%	14.2%	2.9%	4.25	4.20	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	29	29	172	728	160	57	22	100%	5.9	21.9%	7.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.25	4.24	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	167	706	154	56	22	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.33	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	160	674	145	55	22	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	3.2%	4.39	4.46	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	634	134	54	22	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.5%	12.8%	3.4%	4.54	4.63	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	140	591	123	52	22	100%	6.1	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.6%	4.72	4.84	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	130	547	111	50	21	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	3.9%	4.93	5.06	-0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	502	100	48	21	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	4.2%	5.16	5.31	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	68	287	58	23	9	100%	5.7	20.3%	7.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.52	4.45	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	117	494	105	38	15	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.33	+0.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	139	587	129	45	18	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.7%	14.2%	3.1%	4.33	4.28	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	147	621	136	48	19	100%	6.1	21.9%	7.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.33	4.32	+1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	25	25	149	629	137	50	20	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	3.2%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	145	612	132	50	21	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.48	4.55	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	138	583	124	49	21	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.5%	12.8%	3.6%	4.63	4.72	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	130	549	114	48	21	100%	5.9	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.8%	4.82	4.94	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	121	511	104	47	21	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	4.1%	5.04	5.17	-0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	113	477	95	46	21	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	4.4%	5.27	5.42	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		213	213	1269	5358	1136	445	186	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	3.5%	4.61	4.27	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	70	29	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	3.5%	4.61	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		48	45	229	984	188	107	38	94%	4.8	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.9%	4.55	5.02	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	39	200	858	164	94	34	94%	4.8	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.9%	4.55	5.02	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaron DeBerry (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	18.6%	8.3%	2.9%	—	4.27	21.2%	13.5%	505	-0.30	—	—	—
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	90
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	89
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	89
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	89
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	89
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	88
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	88
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	88
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	88
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	88
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	87
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	87
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.54	18.7%	11.6%	445	+0.42	4.12	747	87
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	87
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	87
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	87
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	87
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	86
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	86
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.2	148	21.0%	8.3%	1.26	4.50
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45