Jaron DeBerry
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.9
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 178 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.5 · 2029
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%11.9%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 19 | 101 | 427 | 102 | 31 | 11 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.32 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 2 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 11 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 80 | 34 | 12 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 102 | 428 | 91 | 41 | 12 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.05 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 100 | 39 | 14 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 114 | 43 | 15 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.30 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 552 | 122 | 45 | 16 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 124 | 46 | 17 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 124 | 47 | 17 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 552 | 121 | 46 | 17 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 116 | 45 | 17 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 111 | 44 | 16 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 105 | 43 | 16 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 474 | 99 | 42 | 16 | 20.9% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 92 | 41 | 15 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 85 | 39 | 15 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 397 | 78 | 38 | 15 | 19.7% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 21 | 111 | 467 | 87 | 44 | 13 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.21 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 38 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 80 | 23 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.21 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jaron DeBerry (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 365 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 93 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .315 | 3.76 | 18.2% | 12.0% | 120 | +0.10 | 3.66 | 229 | 92 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 91 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.37 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.01 | 3.50 | 368 | 91 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 91 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.98 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.36 | 3.84 | 494 | 91 |
| Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.52 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .293 | 5.37 | 11.6% | 2.7% | 93 | +1.85 | 3.52 | 175 | 91 |
| Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 91 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 90 |
| James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .338 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 61 | +0.12 | 3.67 | 167 | 90 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 90 |
| Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.70 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .236 | 4.02 | 19.6% | 13.5% | 184 | +0.32 | 3.11 | 321 | 90 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.55 | 252 | 90 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 89 |
| Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.12 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .314 | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 445 | +0.40 | 4.07 | 663 | 89 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.55 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.05 | 3.55 | 205 | 89 |
| Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .297 | 5.02 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.28 | 3.74 | 204 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.4 | $13M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.3 | $13M | +$8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.1 | $11M | +$5M |
| Totals | $17M | $78M | +$61M | ||