Jaron DeBerry

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 178 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#851ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	22	19	101	4.38	3.42	23.9%	7.3%	—	K 17.8% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.25
2026	23	AAMIL	26	26	129	4.69	4.67	24.8%	11.5%	—	K 20.1% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.61
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	1	1	3	5.20	5.20	19.8%	11.1%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	25	MLBMIL	6	6	38	5.11	5.05	20.8%	10.1%	0.2
2029PROJ52% MLB	26	MLBMIL	10	10	58	4.99	4.95	21.3%	9.8%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 4.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 83%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Austin Love (age 23) · Justin Armbruester (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%19.8%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.25	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	19	101	427	102	31	11	86%	4.6	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	2.6%	4.38	3.42	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	129	557	138	64	22	100%	4.9	20.1%	12.6%	7.4%	4.7%	4.69	5.61	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	129	557	138	64	22	100%	4.9	20.1%	12.6%	7.4%	4.7%	4.69	5.61	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	129	557	138	64	22	100%	4.9	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.9%	4.69	4.67	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	3.6%	5.20	5.20	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	121	510	106	51	18	100%	5.7	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.6%	5.01	4.95	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	111	469	100	46	16	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.5%	4.89	4.85	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	105	445	95	44	16	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	3.5%	4.86	4.86	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	100	421	89	42	15	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.6%	4.89	4.93	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	391	82	40	15	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	3.8%	4.99	5.06	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	84	354	73	37	14	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.4%	10.2%	4.0%	5.14	5.24	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	38	160	33	16	6	100%	6.3	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	58	245	52	24	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.99	4.95	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	67	283	60	28	11	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	3.7%	4.96	4.96	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	65	30	12	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.8%	4.99	5.03	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	64	31	12	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	4.0%	5.09	5.16	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	68	287	59	30	12	100%	6.2	20.7%	10.4%	10.2%	4.2%	5.25	5.35	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	375	1583	334	159	61	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.9%	5.06	4.71	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	85	33	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.9%	5.06	4.71	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		48	45	229	984	188	107	38	94%	4.8	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.9%	4.55	5.02	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	39	200	858	164	94	34	94%	4.8	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.9%	4.55	5.02	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 129 IPFIP 4.63 → 5.61 (+0.98)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.78%	—	×0.810	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.49%	—	×1.100	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.63 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 55 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.44 (+0.61)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.01%	—	×0.770	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.37%	—	×1.150	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.93%	÷1.246	×1.250	2.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 37 IPFIP 3.48 → 3.96 (+0.47)K% 22.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.08%	—	×0.810	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.49%	—	×1.100	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.170	×1.200	2.66%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 9 IPFIP 0.24 → 1.15 (+0.91)K% 38.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.24%	—	×0.740	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×1.180	3.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.214	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 0.24 → 1.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaron DeBerry (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.89	21.1%	11.3%	337	-0.31	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	87
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	86
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	86
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	85
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	85
Osmer Morales R 2017 · 5.22 FIP	24	SP	5.22	18.9%	10.1%	4.4%	.294	5.33	16.9%	4.5%	102	+0.11	3.14	429	85
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	85
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	85
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	85
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	84
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	83
Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	19.0%	11.2%	3.6%	.274	4.11	21.1%	11.9%	241	-0.76	3.89	479	83
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	83
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	83
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	83
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	82
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	82
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	82
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	82
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	109	20.8%	10.2%	1.41	5.01
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Chris Knapp ('75-'80, -1 WAR*)	3.0	121	21.3%*	9.3%*	1.41*	5.48*