Dylan Wilson

P ACL Mariners

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK peak 0.8 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKSEA	12	6	32	5.06	4.44	21.7%	18.0%	—	K 14.8% · BB 22.5% · FIP 5.81
2025	19	ROKSEA	12	9	51	5.47	3.96	17.7%	10.6%	—	K 12.0% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.30
2026	20	MIX2 levels	18	16	65	5.54	3.27	25.7%	11.2%	—	K 17.8% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.56
2027PROJ	21	MLBSEA	9	9	42	6.06	6.06	13.4%	16.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSEA	6	6	30	5.71	5.59	15.9%	14.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBSEA	9	9	46	5.42	5.29	17.5%	13.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control35Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDanny Flatt (age 20) · Kyle Larsen (age 21) · Luis Mateo (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.06

FIP6.06

K%13.4%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%-3.2%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	7	6	16	75	20	9	0	86%	2.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	0.0%	2.20	3.47	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	7	6	16	75	20	9	0	86%	2.3	26.7%	12.0%	14.7%	0.0%	2.20	2.30	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	6	32	161	35	29	2	50%	2.7	14.8%	22.5%	-7.7%	2.0%	5.06	5.81	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	6	32	161	35	29	2	50%	2.7	14.8%	22.5%	-7.7%	2.0%	5.06	5.81	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	6	32	161	35	29	2	50%	2.7	21.7%	18.0%	3.7%	1.2%	5.06	4.44	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	9	51	226	40	24	4	75%	4.2	12.0%	13.3%	-1.2%	2.8%	5.47	5.30	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	9	51	226	40	24	4	75%	4.2	12.0%	13.3%	-1.2%	2.8%	5.47	5.30	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	9	51	226	40	24	4	75%	4.2	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	1.8%	5.47	3.96	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	65	304	78	34	5	89%	3.6	17.8%	13.7%	4.1%	2.2%	5.54	4.56	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	65	304	78	34	5	89%	3.6	17.8%	13.7%	4.1%	2.2%	5.54	4.56	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	65	304	78	34	5	89%	3.6	25.7%	11.2%	14.5%	1.6%	5.54	3.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SEA	9	9	42	177	24	29	5	100%	4.7	13.4%	16.6%	-3.2%	2.9%	6.06	6.06	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	61	259	41	38	7	100%	5.1	15.9%	14.8%	1.1%	2.9%	5.71	5.59	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	64	269	47	37	8	100%	5.3	17.5%	13.7%	3.8%	2.8%	5.42	5.29	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	65	276	51	36	8	100%	5.4	18.4%	13.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.22	5.12	-0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	279	53	35	8	100%	6.0	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	2.8%	5.10	5.03	-0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	279	53	35	8	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.6%	6.4%	2.8%	5.05	5.01	-0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	65	275	52	35	8	100%	5.9	19.1%	12.7%	6.3%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	63	266	50	34	8	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.9%	6.1%	3.0%	5.10	5.13	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	30	127	20	19	4	100%	5.0	15.9%	14.8%	1.1%	2.9%	5.71	5.59	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	46	194	34	27	6	100%	5.1	17.5%	13.7%	3.8%	2.8%	5.42	5.29	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	54	228	42	30	6	100%	5.4	18.4%	13.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.22	5.12	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	58	245	46	31	7	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	2.8%	5.10	5.03	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	48	32	7	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.6%	6.4%	2.8%	5.05	5.01	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	48	32	7	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.7%	6.3%	2.9%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	59	249	47	32	7	100%	5.9	18.9%	12.9%	6.1%	3.0%	5.10	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	369	1557	287	203	44	100%	5.8	18.4%	13.1%	5.4%	2.8%	5.19	4.76	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	156	110	24	100%	5.7	18.4%	13.1%	5.4%	2.8%	5.19	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		49	37	164	766	119	119	16	76%	3.4	15.5%	15.5%	-0.0%	2.1%	5.09	4.93	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	45	200	932	144	145	20	76%	3.4	15.5%	15.5%	-0.0%	2.1%	5.09	4.93	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.06	13.4%	16.6%	2.9%	—	5.33	17.3%	3.4%	190	-0.73	—	—	—
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	88
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	88
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	87
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Edelvis Perez R 2024 · 5.19 FIP	19	SP	5.19	11.9%	13.8%	2.4%	.267	5.56	17.9%	-1.9%	62	+0.37	5.19	103	83
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	83
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	83
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	82
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	81
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	81
Wilmer Blanco R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	20	SP	5.76	14.9%	16.3%	3.4%	.364	5.82	14.1%	2.3%	47	+0.06	3.81	163	81
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	80
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	80
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	80
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	80
Jhonly Taveras R 2024 · 6.59 FIP	19	SP	6.59	13.0%	27.1%	2.1%	.311	5.00	12.1%	-11.0%	34	-1.59	5.00	133	80
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	80
Samuel Colmenares R 2024 · 6.21 FIP	19	SP-	6.21	17.3%	21.0%	3.5%	.292	3.85	15.8%	8.0%	31	-2.36	3.85	123	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	62	17.8%	13.5%	1.10	5.30
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*