Johander Rubio — OGILVIE

Johander Rubio P DSL Rangers Red

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%21.6%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	4	2	5	28	7	9	0	50%	1.2	25.0%	32.1%	-7.1%	0.0%	10.80	5.06	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	4	2	5	28	7	9	0	50%	1.2	25.0%	32.1%	-7.1%	0.0%	10.80	5.70	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	9	33	161	40	39	0	82%	3.0	16.9%	30.3%	-13.4%	0.0%	6.61	5.51	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	9	33	161	40	39	0	82%	3.0	16.9%	30.3%	-13.4%	0.0%	6.61	5.51	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	9	33	161	40	39	0	82%	3.0	24.8%	24.2%	0.6%	0.0%	6.61	4.23	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	39	164	42	23	1	100%	3.5	17.4%	17.5%	-0.1%	0.7%	3.96	4.22	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	39	164	42	23	1	100%	3.5	17.4%	17.5%	-0.1%	0.7%	3.96	4.22	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	11	39	164	42	23	1	100%	3.5	25.6%	14.0%	11.6%	0.6%	3.96	3.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TEX	4	4	22	93	20	16	3	100%	5.5	21.6%	17.2%	4.4%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	36	154	35	22	4	100%	5.2	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.99	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	TEX	3	3	18	76	17	11	2	100%	6.0	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	76	17	11	2	100%	4.5	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.61	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	189	123	22	100%	5.1	22.6%	14.6%	8.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.61	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		26	22	76	353	63	87	1	85%	2.9	17.8%	24.5%	-6.7%	0.3%	5.54	4.88	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	58	200	925	164	227	3	85%	2.9	17.8%	24.5%	-6.7%	0.3%	5.54	4.88	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johander Rubio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	21.6%	17.2%	2.9%	—	4.99	22.6%	8.1%	36	-0.45	—	—	—
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	85
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	82
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	82
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	81
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	80
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	80
Cristian Hernandez R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	19	SP	4.39	23.5%	19.9%	1.4%	.269	5.41	18.1%	2.6%	62	+1.02	4.39	116	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	79
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Trevor Bauer R 2012 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP	4.79	22.1%	16.9%	2.6%	.267	4.08	21.8%	11.8%	346	-0.71	2.16	1,298	78
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	77
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	77
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	77
Beck Way R 2021 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	23.1%	16.5%	2.4%	.250	4.79	19.8%	5.4%	246	+0.26	3.82	438	77
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	22.2%	15.5%	1.12	5.25
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51