Wuilberth Mendez

Wuilberth Mendez P FCL Tigers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%12.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%3.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	9	36	160	28	5	5	82%	3.3	11.9%	3.9%	8.0%	4.3%	6.44	4.97	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	11	9	36	160	28	5	5	82%	3.3	11.9%	3.9%	8.0%	4.3%	6.44	4.97	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	11	9	36	160	28	5	5	82%	3.3	17.5%	3.1%	14.4%	3.1%	6.44	3.76	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	12	54	222	38	9	3	100%	4.5	11.6%	5.1%	6.6%	1.9%	2.65	3.80	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	12	12	54	222	38	9	3	100%	4.5	11.6%	5.1%	6.6%	1.9%	2.65	3.80	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	12	12	54	222	38	9	3	100%	4.5	17.1%	4.1%	13.1%	1.4%	2.65	2.92	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	47	200	38	14	4	69%	3.6	13.2%	8.9%	4.3%	3.2%	5.32	4.90	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	47	200	38	14	4	69%	3.6	13.2%	8.9%	4.3%	3.2%	5.32	4.90	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	47	200	38	14	4	69%	3.6	19.0%	7.0%	12.0%	2.0%	5.32	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	DET	1	1	4	17	2	2	1	100%	4.0	12.3%	9.0%	3.3%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	51	214	32	19	6	100%	5.6	15.0%	8.7%	6.3%	2.9%	5.01	4.94	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	52	220	36	19	6	100%	5.8	16.6%	8.6%	8.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.76	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	53	222	39	19	6	100%	5.8	17.5%	8.5%	9.1%	2.9%	4.73	4.67	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	53	222	40	19	6	100%	5.8	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.67	4.63	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	52	219	39	19	6	100%	5.8	17.9%	8.5%	9.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	25	106	16	9	3	100%	5.0	15.0%	8.7%	6.3%	2.8%	4.94	4.87	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	25	13	4	100%	6.0	16.6%	8.6%	8.1%	2.8%	4.77	4.69	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	43	182	32	15	5	100%	6.1	17.5%	8.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.66	4.60	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	35	16	5	100%	5.8	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	2.8%	4.60	4.56	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	47	198	36	17	6	100%	5.9	17.9%	8.5%	9.4%	2.8%	4.60	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	197	830	143	71	23	100%	5.8	17.2%	8.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.69	4.26	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	145	72	23	100%	5.8	17.2%	8.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.69	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		36	30	138	582	71	35	18	83%	3.8	12.2%	6.1%	6.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.50	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	843	103	51	26	83%	3.8	12.2%	6.1%	6.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.50	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wuilberth Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	12.3%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.79	16.4%	7.8%	155	-0.43	—	—	—
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	87
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	83
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	83
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	83
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	82
Alex Romero R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	10.6%	8.9%	1.9%	.314	4.68	13.8%	6.0%	168	+0.30	4.38	235	81
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	81
Caleb Boushley R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP	4.11	14.2%	10.0%	1.7%	.351	3.21	18.3%	14.2%	163	-0.90	3.05	790	81
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Nick Krauth R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	22	SP-	4.64	14.4%	8.9%	3.0%	.297	4.74	12.5%	2.5%	232	+0.10	4.50	424	81
Carlos Felix R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP	5.21	12.9%	6.7%	4.3%	.374	4.92	8.7%	2.4%	64	-0.29	4.92	121	81
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	80
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	627	80
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	80
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	80
Jose Campos R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	12.0%	5.8%	3.8%	.320	3.67	16.0%	6.8%	170	-1.22	3.28	241	79
Austin Sexton R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	10.9%	7.7%	1.7%	.290	3.32	18.0%	9.4%	101	-0.78	3.14	120	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	51	16.3%	8.6%	1.14	4.85
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79