Pedro Ibarguen
RF Wilson Warbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKMIL | 145 | .158/.319/.184 | 0 | 9 | 4 | — | .113/.220/.137 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROK2 orgs | 174 | .290/.408/.407 | 3 | 18 | 78 | — | .234/.322/.324 |
| 2026 | 20 | AMIL | 335 | .245/.372/.361 | 5 | 19 | 69 | — | .203/.303/.292 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBMIL | 445 | .214/.305/.315 | 6 | 11 | 78 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBMIL | 94 | .217/.307/.328 | 2 | 2 | 84 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBMIL | 175 | .220/.310/.339 | 3 | 4 | 87 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 41
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 167 | 132 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 311 | 445 | 447 | 892 | 136 | 380 | 19 | 15 | 399 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 145 | 114 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 43 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 158 | 319 | 184 | 503 | 26 | 240 | 30 | 18 | 250 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 68 | 56 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 268 | 397 | 321 | 718 | 54 | 359 | 24 | 16 | 341 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 106 | 89 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 303 | 415 | 461 | 876 | 157 | 347 | 14 | 15 | 393 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Wilson Warbirds | — | 335 | 274 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 77 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 245 | 372 | 361 | 734 | 117 | 320 | 23 | 15 | 337 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 167 | 139 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 194 | 317 | 259 | 576 | 65 | 238 | 23 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 145 | 124 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 113 | 220 | 137 | 357 | 24 | 194 | 43 | 11 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 68 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 237 | 338 | 288 | 626 | 51 | 361 | 31 | 12 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 106 | 95 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 232 | 311 | 347 | 659 | 116 | 278 | 21 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 335 | 291 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 105 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 203 | 303 | 292 | 595 | 89 | 293 | 31 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 167 | 139 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 194 | 317 | 259 | 576 | 65 | 252 | 23 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 167 | 132 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 311 | 445 | 447 | 892 | 136 | 380 | 19 | 15 | 399 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 145 | 124 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 113 | 220 | 137 | 357 | 24 | 212 | 43 | 11 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers | — | 145 | 114 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 43 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 158 | 319 | 184 | 503 | 26 | 240 | 30 | 18 | 250 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 174 | 154 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 227 | 316 | 299 | 615 | 71 | 303 | 25 | 10 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 174 | 145 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 31 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 290 | 408 | 407 | 815 | 117 | 351 | 18 | 16 | 372 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 335 | 291 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 105 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 203 | 303 | 292 | 595 | 89 | 299 | 31 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | Wilson Warbirds | — | 335 | 274 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 77 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 245 | 372 | 361 | 734 | 117 | 320 | 23 | 15 | 337 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 2 | — | 167 | 140 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 38 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 193 | 317 | 257 | 574 | 64 | 238 | 23 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 145 | 127 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 110 | 220 | 134 | 354 | 24 | 194 | 43 | 11 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 174 | 152 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 230 | 316 | 303 | 619 | 72 | 310 | 25 | 10 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 335 | 290 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 105 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 203 | 303 | 293 | 596 | 90 | 293 | 31 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 145 | 127 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 110 | 220 | 134 | 354 | 24 | 194 | 43 | 11 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 174 | 152 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 230 | 316 | 303 | 619 | 72 | 310 | 25 | 10 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Wilson Warbirds | — | 335 | 290 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 105 | 6 | 19 | 12 | 203 | 303 | 293 | 596 | 90 | 293 | 31 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | MIL | 0% | 445 | 392 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 110 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 214 | 305 | 315 | 620 | 101 | 278 | 25 | 10 | 284 | 78 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIL | 34% | 275 | 242 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 67 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 219 | 309 | 331 | 640 | 112 | 280 | 24 | 10 | 292 | 84 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIL | 48% | 362 | 318 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 86 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 223 | 312 | 342 | 654 | 119 | 281 | 24 | 10 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 53% | 418 | 367 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 99 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 226 | 314 | 349 | 663 | 123 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 301 | 90 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 55% | 448 | 395 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 105 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 227 | 315 | 353 | 669 | 126 | 283 | 23 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 56% | 463 | 408 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 109 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 228 | 315 | 356 | 671 | 128 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIL | 55% | 468 | 413 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 226 | 314 | 353 | 667 | 126 | 282 | 24 | 10 | 302 | 90 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIL | 55% | 466 | 411 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 111 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 224 | 312 | 347 | 659 | 123 | 281 | 24 | 10 | 299 | 88 | -6 | +1 | -1 | -5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 58% | 455 | 401 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 110 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 221 | 309 | 340 | 649 | 119 | 279 | 24 | 10 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +10 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIL | 34% | 94 | 83 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 307 | 328 | 635 | 111 | 275 | 24 | 11 | 290 | 84 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIL | 48% | 175 | 153 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 310 | 339 | 649 | 119 | 277 | 24 | 10 | 295 | 87 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 53% | 220 | 193 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 52 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 312 | 347 | 659 | 124 | 278 | 24 | 10 | 299 | 90 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 55% | 245 | 215 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 58 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 313 | 351 | 664 | 127 | 278 | 24 | 10 | 301 | 91 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 56% | 258 | 227 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 313 | 354 | 667 | 128 | 278 | 24 | 10 | 302 | 91 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIL | 55% | 257 | 226 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 224 | 312 | 351 | 663 | 127 | 278 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 90 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIL | 55% | 255 | 224 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 310 | 345 | 655 | 123 | 276 | 24 | 10 | 297 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 58% | 264 | 232 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 64 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 307 | 338 | 645 | 119 | 274 | 24 | 10 | 293 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1768 | 1553 | 344 | 62 | 7 | 38 | 180 | 422 | 21 | 41 | 15 | 222 | 311 | 344 | 655 | 122 | 278 | 24 | 10 | 298 | 82 | -23 | +2 | -1 | -19 | +38 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 127 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 66 | 155 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 222 | 312 | 347 | 659 | 124 | 279 | 24 | 10 | 298 | 82 | -9 | +1 | -0 | -7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4386 | 3848 | 839 | 156 | 20 | 78 | 449 | 1097 | 55 | 140 | 58 | 218 | 309 | 330 | 638 | 112 | 282 | 25 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -50 | +5 | -2 | -38 | +77 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 125 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 67 | 163 | 8 | 21 | 9 | 219 | 310 | 333 | 643 | 114 | 283 | 25 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -9 | +1 | -0 | -7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AWilson Warbirds · 335 PAwOBA .330 → .270 (−60)K% 23.0% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.99% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.030 | 22.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.030 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.030 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.09% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .330 → .270; ISO .117 → .095; BABIP .320 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Brewers · 106 PAwOBA .383 → .284 (−100)K% 14.2% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.15% | ÷0.973 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.09% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷1.031 | ×0.820 | ×1.042 | ×1.008 | 21.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.109 | ×0.720 | ×1.042 | ×1.008 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | ×1.042 | ×1.008 | 2.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.971 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.19% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .383 → .284; ISO .157 → .118; BABIP .347 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 68 PAwOBA .333 → .285 (−48)K% 23.5% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.18% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 11.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 35.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.214 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .333 → .285; ISO .054 → .035; BABIP .359 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Brewers · 145 PAwOBA .252 → .174 (−78)K% 29.7% → 42.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.66% | ÷1.002 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.93% | ÷1.014 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 11.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 18.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.088 | ×0.720 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 0.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .252 → .174; ISO .026 → .019; BABIP .240 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Brewers 2 · 167 PAwOBA .396 → .258 (−139)K% 19.2% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.16% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.97% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.19% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 19.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 4.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.125 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.904 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.76% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 281, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 125, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .396 → .258; ISO .136 → .060; BABIP .380 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).