Alexis Hernandez

Alexis HernandezLF Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION277 act + 184 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .279 / .336

PA184

HR5

SB5

K%29

BB%8

BABIP253

ISO141

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	124	22	5	1	1	10	21	2	6	2	177	250	258	508	81	204	15	7	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	117	30	7	1	3	17	14	2	6	2	256	360	410	771	154	267	10	12	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	92	83	12	2	0	1	5	24	3	5	3	145	220	205	425	60	186	26	5	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	92	78	17	4	0	1	10	17	3	5	3	218	330	308	637	90	262	18	11	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	192	173	39	8	0	3	16	56	2	13	1	225	298	324	622	98	313	29	8	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	192	161	43	9	0	3	28	38	2	13	1	267	382	379	761	112	331	20	15	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	155	29	4	0	3	17	55	5	17	1	187	288	271	559	84	268	31	10	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	151	33	5	0	4	21	42	5	17	1	219	333	331	664	113	276	24	12	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	3 teams	—	337	298	60	15	1	6	27	107	7	14	4	201	283	319	602	117	286	32	8	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	3 teams	—	337	287	76	18	1	9	38	71	7	14	4	265	364	429	793	164	318	21	11	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	TOR	—	277	243	50	9	2	9	18	81	9	7	2	206	285	370	656	165	263	29	6	277	70	-9	+1	+0	-3	+8	-0.4
YTD	23	A+	TOR	—	277	232	62	13	2	11	29	58	9	7	2	267	370	483	853	216	307	21	10	369	141	+13	+1	+0	-3	+8	1.9
ROS	23	A+	TOR	0%	184	163	32	6	1	5	14	53	5	5	1	196	279	336	615	141	253	29	8	272	66	-7	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						254	0	0	255	53	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	TOR	—	278	244	50	9	2	9	18	81	9	7	2	205	284	369	653	164	261	29	6	277	70	-9	+1	+0	-3	+8	-0.4
TOT	23	A+	TOR	—	461	406	82	15	3	14	32	134	14	12	3	202	283	357	639	155	259	29	7	275	69	-16	+1	+0	-5	+13	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	412	370	75	15	2	11	31	115	8	10	2	203	279	343	622	141	257	28	8	279	71	-13	+1	+0	-4	+12	-0.5
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	444	397	81	16	2	12	35	122	9	10	2	204	283	345	629	141	260	27	8	284	76	-12	+1	+0	-5	+13	-0.3
2029	26	MLB	TOR	51%	464	415	86	17	2	13	37	126	9	11	2	207	286	352	638	145	261	27	8	288	78	-11	+1	+0	-5	+13	-0.2
2030	27	MLB	TOR	52%	469	419	87	17	2	13	38	127	9	11	2	208	288	351	638	143	262	27	8	288	79	-11	+1	+0	-5	+13	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	125	111	23	5	1	3	10	35	3	3	1	207	290	351	642	144	258	28	8	265	61	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	196	175	36	7	1	5	15	54	4	5	1	206	284	343	626	137	261	28	8	271	66	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.4
2029	26	MLB	TOR	51%	236	210	45	9	1	7	19	64	5	5	1	214	295	367	662	152	263	27	8	274	68	-9	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.4
2030	27	MLB	TOR	52%	246	219	46	9	1	7	20	67	5	6	1	210	291	356	647	146	263	27	8	275	69	-9	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	804	716	150	30	4	22	64	220	17	19	4	209	290	355	645	145	268	27	8	272	67	-30	+2	+0	-9	+23	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	121	24	3	18	52	178	14	15	3	209	290	354	644	145	267	27	8	272	67	-25	+2	+0	-7	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	2908	2597	523	105	11	68	230	806	59	102	20	201	281	329	610	127	262	28	8	274	68	-105	+12	+0	-31	+82	-4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	116	23	2	15	51	180	13	23	4	200	279	324	603	124	259	28	8	274	68	-23	+3	+0	-7	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	137	117	30	7	1	3	17	14	2	6	2	256	360	410	771	154	267	10	12	346	123	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	92	78	17	4	0	1	10	17	3	5	3	218	330	308	637	90	262	18	11	296	85	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.1
2023	20	A	Salem Red Sox	—	174	151	38	8	0	3	20	38	2	11	1	252	347	364	711	113	315	22	11	324	106	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.8
2023	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	18	10	5	1	0	0	8	0	0	2	0	500	722	600	1.322	100	500	0	44	583	304	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	177	151	33	5	0	4	21	42	5	17	1	219	333	331	664	113	276	24	12	310	95	-1	+3	—	—	+5	0.7
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	106	92	27	5	1	3	10	18	1	4	1	293	369	467	836	174	324	17	9	361	135	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	204	172	42	12	0	5	26	47	5	10	3	244	360	401	761	157	308	23	13	344	122	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2025	22	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	27	23	7	1	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	304	385	478	863	174	353	22	7	371	142	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	804	22	19	207	282	352	-9	-2	-0.5	-0.2
	/162	664	19	15	207	282	352	-7.1	-1.7	-0.4	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	23	35	40	50	50	202/283/357	155	259	14	12	29%	7%	69	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	43→50	51→55	47	212/285/327	114	283	10	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	202/288/323	121	269	12	14	28%	10%	72	-0.2	197/277/356	159	247	21	23	29%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	36→46	45	52→65	39	191/248/311	120	257	14	21	31%	6%	51	-1.7	219/287/347	128	293	11	39	27%	8%	77	+0.1	221/289/346	125	298	10	43	27%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	39→38	47→50	54→55	43	198/273/336	137	281	14	17	33%	8%	69	-0.4	191/270/311	120	270	12	17	32%	8%	62	-0.9	168/253/270	102	226	10	19	29%	8%	41	-1.2
✕Connor Kokx 2023 · A	23	42	40	48→60	49	204/292/297	93	273	8	14	27%	9%	67	-0.5	205/289/284	79	296	5	24	30%	8%	63	-0.9	193/283/259	66	288	4	34	31%	8%	51	-0.7
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2014 · A	24	44→41	42→50	51→50	47	214/288/323	109	274	9	17	24%	8%	72	-0.2	210/270/352	142	276	16	11	29%	7%	72	-0.2	199/257/359	161	255	21	7	31%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Michael Suiter 2015 · A	23	43→38	41→40	52→50	43	211/279/308	98	266	9	15	24%	6%	64	-0.8	201/253/280	79	278	6	10	29%	5%	44	-2.1	193/242/263	70	268	6	10	29%	4%	32	-1.7
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	45	223/293/342	119	282	12	16	24%	7%	79	+0.3	210/268/294	84	282	6	12	26%	6%	55	-1.4	194/247/254	61	264	3	10	27%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Evan Chambers 2012 · A	23	36→37	42→40	47→50	47	183/270/286	104	259	10	17	32%	9%	56	-1.3	179/260/257	78	296	6	13	38%	9%	43	-2.2	138/227/178	40	255	2	14	42%	10%	9	-2.6
✕Jabari Henry 2014 · A	23	41→40	45→55	45	49	207/280/335	127	262	12	7	25%	9%	71	-0.3	196/277/354	158	273	19	6	33%	9%	76	+0.0	178/262/342	164	247	21	5	36%	9%	63	-0.6
✕Charcer Burks 2018 · AA	23	42→45	42→40	48→50	45	205/277/309	104	278	9	15	28%	8%	63	-0.9	197/267/284	87	288	7	14	31%	8%	53	-1.5	182/254/254	72	273	4	14	32%	8%	37	-2.1
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	40	43→45	51→55	40	193/267/298	105	296	11	13	36%	7%	56	-1.3	203/272/299	96	311	8	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	170/253/239	69	277	4	11	36%	9%	33	-0.6
✕Barrett Barnes 2014 · A	23	42→48	43→45	50	37	208/256/313	105	293	11	13	32%	5%	54	-1.4	218/283/340	122	285	12	14	26%	7%	73	-0.1	215/293/346	131	300	13	7	30%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	39→41	43→55	49→50	38	195/247/302	108	280	10	13	33%	6%	48	-1.9	197/253/324	127	295	12	10	36%	6%	56	-1.3	210/314/386	176	278	19	16	30%	12%	96	+0.7
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Trey Amburgey 2018 · A	23	38→44	43→50	51→50	36	193/240/300	106	271	10	12	32%	4%	44	-2.1	214/254/347	133	278	15	9	28%	4%	63	-0.9	221/261/363	142	287	15	7	28%	4%	66	-0.4
✕Jeff Flagg 2009 · A	23	38	44→45	54→40	43	194/261/311	117	269	11	10	31%	8%	57	-1.2	195/249/303	108	324	11	6	40%	6%	49	-1.8	178/229/283	104	304	12	3	43%	6%	33	-1.0
✕Jodd Carter 2019 · AA	23	42→41	45	46→45	41	209/266/325	116	286	13	9	31%	6%	63	-0.9	215/286/351	136	293	16	9	30%	8%	78	+0.2	203/288/353	150	269	20	9	31%	10%	76	+0.0