Alexis Hernandez
LF Vancouver Canadians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ATOR | 177 | .219/.333/.331 | 4 | 17 | 51 | — | .178/.271/.261 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 337 | .265/.364/.429 | 9 | 14 | 74 | — | .211/.291/.334 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+TOR | 431 | .298/.391/.497 | 15 | 15 | 101 | — | .254/.329/.413 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBTOR | 1 | .212/.285/.348 | 0 | 0 | 78 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBTOR | 77 | .214/.288/.354 | 2 | 2 | 81 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | — | 137 | 117 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 256 | 360 | 410 | 771 | 154 | 267 | 10 | 12 | 346 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 92 | 78 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 218 | 330 | 308 | 637 | 90 | 262 | 18 | 11 | 296 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 174 | 151 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 38 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 252 | 347 | 364 | 711 | 113 | 315 | 22 | 11 | 324 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 18 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 500 | 722 | 600 | 1.322 | 100 | 500 | 0 | 44 | 583 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 177 | 151 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 42 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 331 | 664 | 113 | 276 | 24 | 12 | 310 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 106 | 92 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 293 | 369 | 467 | 836 | 174 | 324 | 17 | 9 | 361 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 204 | 172 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 47 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 244 | 360 | 401 | 761 | 157 | 308 | 23 | 13 | 344 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 27 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 385 | 478 | 863 | 174 | 353 | 22 | 7 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 102 | 91 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 341 | 406 | 451 | 856 | 110 | 405 | 16 | 9 | 381 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 329 | 275 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 66 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 284 | 386 | 513 | 899 | 229 | 322 | 20 | 11 | 387 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 137 | 122 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 156 | 243 | 230 | 472 | 74 | 168 | 12 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 92 | 82 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 146 | 231 | 207 | 438 | 61 | 187 | 26 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 174 | 158 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 209 | 277 | 291 | 569 | 82 | 297 | 30 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 385 | 556 | 462 | 1.017 | 77 | 397 | 0 | 28 | 459 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 177 | 157 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 178 | 271 | 261 | 532 | 83 | 253 | 31 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 106 | 95 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 263 | 320 | 432 | 752 | 168 | 294 | 24 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 204 | 180 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 66 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 183 | 276 | 283 | 559 | 100 | 264 | 32 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 102 | 94 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 330 | 376 | 426 | 802 | 96 | 406 | 19 | 6 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 329 | 286 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 89 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 231 | 315 | 409 | 724 | 178 | 274 | 27 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 137 | 122 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 156 | 243 | 230 | 472 | 74 | 171 | 12 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL BOS Blue | — | 137 | 117 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 256 | 360 | 410 | 771 | 154 | 267 | 10 | 12 | 346 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 92 | 82 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 146 | 231 | 207 | 438 | 61 | 190 | 26 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 92 | 78 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 218 | 330 | 308 | 637 | 90 | 262 | 18 | 11 | 296 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 171 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 53 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 228 | 309 | 310 | 619 | 82 | 316 | 28 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 192 | 161 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 38 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 267 | 382 | 379 | 761 | 112 | 331 | 20 | 15 | 348 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 177 | 157 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 178 | 271 | 261 | 532 | 83 | 253 | 31 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 177 | 151 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 42 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 331 | 664 | 113 | 276 | 24 | 12 | 310 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 337 | 299 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 99 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 207 | 286 | 324 | 611 | 117 | 283 | 29 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 337 | 287 | 76 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 71 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 265 | 364 | 429 | 793 | 164 | 318 | 21 | 11 | 352 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 379 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 109 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 256 | 332 | 414 | 746 | 158 | 324 | 25 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 431 | 366 | 109 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 45 | 82 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 298 | 391 | 497 | 888 | 199 | 344 | 19 | 10 | 386 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 137 | 122 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 156 | 243 | 230 | 472 | 74 | 168 | 12 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 92 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 145 | 231 | 205 | 436 | 60 | 187 | 26 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 170 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 53 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 229 | 309 | 312 | 621 | 82 | 306 | 28 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 177 | 155 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 181 | 271 | 265 | 536 | 84 | 253 | 31 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 337 | 301 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 99 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 206 | 286 | 322 | 608 | 116 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 385 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 109 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 252 | 332 | 408 | 740 | 156 | 305 | 25 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 177 | 155 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 181 | 271 | 265 | 536 | 84 | 253 | 31 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 337 | 301 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 99 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 206 | 286 | 322 | 608 | 116 | 274 | 29 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 385 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 109 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 252 | 332 | 408 | 740 | 156 | 305 | 25 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | TOR | 0% | 380 | 342 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 95 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 211 | 284 | 347 | 632 | 136 | 260 | 25 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | TOR | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 285 | 348 | 633 | 136 | 261 | 0 | 0 | 285 | 78 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | TOR | 30% | 255 | 230 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 63 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 214 | 287 | 353 | 640 | 139 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | TOR | 30% | 77 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 288 | 354 | 641 | 139 | 263 | 25 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 77 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 286 | 343 | 629 | 129 | 265 | 25 | 8 | 288 | 72 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 126 | 25 | 0 | 17 | 51 | 160 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 213 | 285 | 342 | 626 | 129 | 263 | 25 | 8 | 288 | 72 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1831 | 1628 | 346 | 71 | 6 | 37 | 144 | 472 | 38 | 81 | 19 | 213 | 292 | 332 | 623 | 119 | 273 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +10 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 122 | 25 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 168 | 13 | 29 | 7 | 211 | 290 | 329 | 618 | 118 | 271 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -16 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 329 PAwOBA .382 → .308 (−74)K% 20.1% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.06% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 27.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.04% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 2.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 19.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.984 | ×0.988 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 5.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .382 → .308; ISO .229 → .185; BABIP .322 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 102 PAwOBA .371 → .348 (−23)K% 15.7% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 31.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .371 → .348; ISO .110 → .097; BABIP .405 → .406. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 204 PAwOBA .336 → .246 (−90)K% 23.0% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.04% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.75% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×0.990 | 18.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.60% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.990 | 7.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.284 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.47% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .336 → .246; ISO .157 → .101; BABIP .308 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 106 PAwOBA .362 → .313 (−49)K% 17.0% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.98% | ÷0.958 | ×1.350 | — | — | 23.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 21.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.76% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.939 | ×0.820 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷0.855 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 88, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .362 → .313; ISO .174 → .163; BABIP .324 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 177 PAwOBA .302 → .243 (−59)K% 23.7% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.73% | ÷1.041 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.86% | ÷0.959 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.02% | ÷0.962 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | — | 20.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.59% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | — | 3.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.67% | ÷1.003 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .302 → .243; ISO .113 → .086; BABIP .276 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASalem Red Sox · 174 PAwOBA .318 → .260 (−57)K% 21.8% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.84% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×1.015 | 22.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.045 | ×1.015 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.045 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.999 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .318 → .260; ISO .113 → .092; BABIP .315 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Red Sox · 18 PAwOBA .571 → .459 (−112)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 44.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 27.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 40.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 33.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .571 → .459; ISO .100 → .086; BABIP .500 → .397. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 92 PAwOBA .292 → .195 (−98)K% 18.5% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.080 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.26% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.67% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 15.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.229 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.908 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.943 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.35% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 146, 3B 82, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .292 → .195; ISO .090 → .059; BABIP .262 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .