Alexis Hernandez

Alexis HernandezLF Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ HR +12%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2030

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .285 / .322

PA304

HR6

SB9

K%31

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

40→40

SPD

50→50

EYE

51↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$-2M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	137	124	21	5	0	1	10	21	2	6	2	.169	.243	.234	.477	.065	.194	15	7	.230	34	-10	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.8
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	92	82	12	2	0	1	6	24	3	5	3	.146	.231	.207	.438	.061	.190	26	7	.192	5	-10	-0	+0	-1	+3	-0.9
2023	20	A	2 teams	192	173	39	8	0	3	16	56	2	13	1	.225	.298	.324	.622	.098	.313	29	8	.274	68	-7	+2	+0	-2	+5	-0.1
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	177	156	28	4	0	3	16	57	5	17	1	.179	.277	.263	.540	.083	.260	32	9	.252	51	-10	+3	+0	-2	+5	-0.4
2025	22	A	3 teams	337	298	62	15	1	7	27	103	7	14	4	.208	.289	.336	.625	.128	.286	31	8	.273	67	-12	+1	+0	-4	+10	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	63	56	12	1	2	0	4	22	1	2	1	.214	.279	.304	.582	.089	.343	35	6	.242	43	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	241	215	44	9	1	4	20	75	4	7	2	.205	.285	.312	.596	.107	.290	31	8	.276	69	-8	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.4
TOT	23	MLB	TOR	304	271	56	10	3	4	24	97	5	9	3	.207	.283	.310	.593	.103	.302	32	8	.269	64	-12	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 10%	TOR	339	299	65	12	2	7	31	87	6	9	2	.217	.304	.341	.645	.124	.280	26	9	.293	82	-7	+1	+0	-4	+10	0.0
2028	25	MLB 25%	TOR	396	350	78	15	2	9	37	100	6	10	2	.223	.308	.354	.662	.131	.282	25	9	.298	86	-6	+1	+0	-4	+11	0.2
2029	26	MLB 43%	TOR	432	382	85	16	2	10	40	109	7	10	2	.223	.308	.353	.661	.131	.283	25	9	.301	89	-6	+1	+0	-5	+12	0.3
2030	27	MLB 58%	TOR	448	396	89	17	3	10	42	113	7	10	2	.225	.310	.359	.669	.134	.283	25	9	.302	89	-6	+1	+0	-5	+13	0.4
2031	28	MLB 68%	TOR	454	401	89	17	3	10	43	115	7	9	2	.222	.308	.354	.662	.132	.283	25	9	.301	88	-6	+1	-1	-5	+13	0.2
2032	29	MLB 77%	TOR	451	398	87	17	2	10	43	116	7	8	1	.219	.306	.347	.653	.128	.282	26	10	.299	87	-7	+1	-1	-5	+13	0.1
2033	30	MLB 84%	TOR	445	392	85	16	2	10	43	116	7	7	1	.217	.305	.344	.650	.128	.280	26	10	.295	84	-8	+1	-2	-5	+13	-0.1
2034	31	MLB 91%	TOR	433	381	81	15	2	9	42	115	7	6	0	.213	.302	.333	.636	.121	.279	27	10	.292	81	-9	+1	-3	-5	+12	-0.3
2035	32	MLB	TOR	416	367	77	14	2	8	40	112	6	5	0	.210	.298	.324	.622	.114	.277	27	10	.287	78	-10	+1	-4	-4	+12	-0.6
2036	33	MLB	TOR	388	342	71	13	2	7	37	107	6	4	0	.208	.296	.319	.615	.111	.276	28	10	.282	74	-12	+1	-4	-4	+11	-0.8
2037	34	MLB	TOR	344	303	61	11	2	6	33	98	5	4	0	.201	.290	.310	.601	.109	.274	28	10	.275	69	-12	+1	-5	-4	+10	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5722	5059	1074	206	26	115	526	1524	94	144	25	.212	.298	.331	.630	.119	.278	27	9	.287	77	-146	+19	-20	-61	+162	-4.7
/ 162G	—			650	575	122	23	3	13	60	173	11	16	3	.212	.299	.330	.629	.118	.278	27	9	.287	77	-17	+2	-2	-7	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	137	117	30	7	1	3	17	14	2	6	2	.256	.360	.410	.771	.154	.267	10	12	.346	123	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2022	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	92	78	17	4	0	1	10	17	3	5	3	.218	.330	.308	.637	.090	.262	18	11	.296	85	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.1
2023	20	A	Salem Red Sox	174	151	38	8	0	3	20	38	2	11	1	.252	.347	.364	.711	.113	.315	22	11	.324	106	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.8
2023	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	18	10	5	1	0	0	8	0	0	2	0	.500	.722	.600	1.322	.100	.500	0	44	.583	304	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	177	151	33	5	0	4	21	42	5	17	1	.219	.333	.331	.664	.113	.276	24	12	.310	95	-1	+3	—	—	+5	0.7
2025	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	106	92	27	5	1	3	10	18	1	4	1	.293	.369	.467	.836	.174	.324	17	9	.361	135	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	204	172	42	12	0	5	26	47	5	10	3	.244	.360	.401	.761	.157	.308	23	13	.344	122	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2025	22	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	27	23	7	1	0	1	2	6	1	0	0	.304	.385	.478	.863	.174	.353	22	7	.371	142	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	23	35	40	50	50	.204/.285/.322	.119	.283	6	8	31%	8%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	44→45	51→55	40	.195/.268/.308	.113	.290	12	13	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.200/.270/.300	.100	.307	9	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	.166/.253/.240	.073	.276	4	11	37%	10%	33	-0.6
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	40→38	47→50	54→55	43	.202/.274/.341	.139	.273	14	17	31%	7%	71	-0.3	.192/.270/.316	.124	.268	13	17	31%	8%	63	-0.9	.166/.251/.266	.100	.225	10	19	29%	8%	40	-1.3
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	44→42	42→45	51→55	48	.212/.285/.319	.107	.280	9	10	26%	8%	69	-0.4	.204/.289/.323	.119	.267	12	14	26%	10%	72	-0.2	.192/.284/.327	.135	.243	17	21	27%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	40	44→45	53→60	45	.197/.277/.310	.114	.292	11	16	34%	9%	64	-0.8	.198/.281/.314	.116	.292	13	25	34%	9%	67	-0.5	.178/.270/.288	.111	.256	14	39	34%	9%	55	-0.5
✕Stuart Fairchild 2019 · A	23	45→43	40→50	53→55	41	.214/.276/.312	.098	.301	7	14	30%	6%	63	-0.8	.215/.282/.341	.126	.287	11	10	28%	7%	74	-0.1	.220/.305/.384	.164	.292	18	16	29%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Daz Cameron 2020 · AAA	23	41→45	45→55	52→55	42	.202/.273/.332	.129	.285	12	17	32%	7%	67	-0.5	.207/.273/.337	.130	.293	12	18	32%	7%	69	-0.4	.220/.291/.388	.168	.274	20	25	27%	8%	88	+0.6
✕Evan Chambers 2012 · A	23	37→35	43→40	47→50	47	.187/.274/.296	.109	.264	11	17	32%	9%	59	-1.1	.182/.270/.264	.082	.295	7	14	37%	10%	49	-1.8	.146/.247/.189	.043	.262	2	14	40%	11%	20	-2.1
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	42→45	47→50	40	.200/.259/.300	.100	.270	10	10	29%	6%	53	-1.5	.216/.274/.342	.126	.277	14	9	26%	6%	70	-0.3	.207/.266/.330	.122	.258	15	7	25%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Connor Kokx 2023 · A	23	43	41→40	48→60	49	.207/.293/.305	.098	.273	9	14	26%	9%	69	-0.4	.206/.291/.286	.080	.292	6	24	29%	8%	64	-0.8	.196/.287/.257	.061	.289	3	34	30%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Cory Vaughn 2013 · A	24	39→40	47→45	49→50	44	.200/.280/.332	.132	.273	14	11	31%	8%	71	-0.3	.197/.270/.316	.119	.279	13	14	32%	7%	63	-0.9	.182/.253/.288	.106	.262	11	14	33%	7%	46	-1.2
●Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	38→44	44→55	48→50	37	.196/.244/.314	.117	.275	12	13	33%	5%	50	-1.7	.201/.254/.332	.131	.296	13	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.223/.323/.415	.191	.292	21	16	29%	11%	106	+1.0
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2014 · A	24	44→41	42→45	51→50	47	.215/.291/.320	.105	.274	9	16	24%	8%	72	-0.2	.209/.271/.346	.137	.274	15	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	.195/.252/.351	.157	.251	20	7	31%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Anderson Gomes 2007 · A	22	41→38	43→45	47→50	39	.205/.252/.313	.108	.275	10	9	29%	5%	53	-1.5	.220/.270/.333	.113	.292	11	7	27%	6%	66	-0.6	.223/.275/.335	.112	.290	12	5	26%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	54→55	44	.221/.289/.340	.119	.279	12	16	24%	7%	76	+0.1	.211/.270/.295	.084	.282	6	12	26%	6%	56	-1.3	.195/.249/.254	.059	.266	3	10	26%	6%	34	-0.8
✕Jacob Heyward 2019 · A	23	40	45→50	44→50	43	.202/.275/.325	.123	.289	13	10	33%	8%	66	-0.6	.193/.283/.322	.129	.298	14	9	37%	10%	70	-0.3	.164/.260/.293	.129	.260	17	5	41%	10%	51	-1.0
✕Buddy Kennedy 2022 · AA	23	43→52	47→45	49→50	44	.217/.281/.349	.132	.288	16	11	30%	8%	76	+0.0	.222/.303/.340	.118	.291	11	9	26%	9%	82	+0.5	.229/.316/.348	.119	.280	11	4	21%	9%	88	+0.7
✕Justin Farmer 2023 · A	24	39→33	44→40	54→55	51	.190/.295/.305	.115	.292	12	19	36%	12%	71	-0.3	.186/.265/.277	.091	.307	8	19	38%	9%	50	-1.7	.159/.224/.221	.061	.275	5	22	41%	7%	15	-2.3
✕Michael Suiter 2015 · A	23	43→37	41→45	52→50	43	.212/.280/.310	.098	.269	9	14	24%	6%	65	-0.7	.199/.250/.276	.077	.267	6	11	27%	4%	43	-2.2	.191/.240/.260	.069	.257	6	10	27%	4%	30	-1.8
✕Charcer Burks 2018 · AA	23	42→45	41→45	49→50	46	.207/.277/.309	.101	.277	9	15	27%	8%	63	-0.9	.198/.268/.287	.089	.286	7	14	31%	8%	53	-1.5	.183/.254/.256	.073	.271	5	14	32%	7%	38	-2.1
✕Tyler Marincov 2015 · A	23	43→41	46→50	49→50	41	.214/.275/.352	.138	.298	13	11	32%	7%	73	-0.1	.207/.260/.325	.118	.291	12	9	32%	6%	59	-1.1	.188/.245/.322	.134	.271	17	10	36%	6%	51	-1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)