Kevin Velasco

P FCL Orioles

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKBAL	11	8	36	3.75	3.29	21.8%	7.7%	—	K 14.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.54
2026	20	ROKBAL	9	3	17	3.78	3.46	28.6%	15.7%	—	K 19.4% · BB 19.6% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	21	MLBBAL	14	0	15	4.90	4.90	21.1%	12.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBAL	16	0	17	4.70	4.60	22.3%	11.1%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJuan Mendez (age 22) · Kobe Robinson (age 21) · Miguel Alfonseca (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%21.1%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	2	25	107	20	5	2	18%	2.3	12.7%	5.8%	6.9%	3.1%	4.68	4.46	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	2	25	107	20	5	2	18%	2.3	18.7%	4.7%	14.0%	1.9%	4.68	3.14	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	7	40	152	52	10	0	64%	3.6	23.3%	8.2%	15.0%	0.0%	1.12	2.18	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	7	40	152	52	10	0	64%	3.6	23.3%	8.2%	15.0%	0.0%	1.12	2.18	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	7	40	152	52	10	0	64%	3.6	34.2%	6.6%	27.6%	0.0%	1.12	1.25	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	8	36	156	34	12	3	73%	3.3	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	2.7%	3.75	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	8	36	156	34	12	3	73%	3.3	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	2.7%	3.75	4.54	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	8	36	156	34	12	3	73%	3.3	21.8%	7.7%	14.1%	1.9%	3.75	3.29	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	3	17	70	20	11	1	33%	1.9	19.4%	19.6%	-0.2%	2.0%	3.78	5.05	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	3	17	70	20	11	1	33%	1.9	19.4%	19.6%	-0.2%	2.0%	3.78	5.05	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	9	3	17	70	20	11	1	33%	1.9	28.6%	15.7%	12.9%	1.4%	3.78	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	14	0	15	63	13	8	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.5%	8.6%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	32	0	34	144	32	16	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	16	0	17	72	16	8	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	16	8	2	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.22	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	96	24	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.70	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		42	20	118	485	86	48	9	48%	2.8	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	1.8%	3.06	3.86	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	34	200	824	146	81	15	48%	2.8	17.7%	9.8%	7.9%	1.8%	3.06	3.86	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Velasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	21.1%	12.5%	3.0%	—	4.60	22.3%	11.1%	34	-0.30	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	88
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	88
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	80
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	79
Luis Rosario R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	17.5%	11.8%	2.8%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	206	79
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	79
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	386	79
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	79
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	79
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	78
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	78
Jose Vasquez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	19	SW	4.12	21.9%	13.4%	2.1%	.359	6.49	15.6%	-10.2%	66	+2.37	4.12	123	78
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	77
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	77
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	77
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	77
Juan Mercedes R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	21	SW	4.33	18.5%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	4.86	17.0%	3.6%	59	+0.53	4.33	116	76
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	76